indy in 7?

["Stephen Beauregard" <sb@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Chase for title only halfhearted

East teams must prepare to be Finals fodder

By Peter May, Globe Staff, 4/19/2003

elcome to the consolation bracket. NBA rules dictate that eight teams make the
playoffs from each conference, and one from each actually goes to the NBA
Finals. So we're going to have to endure six weeks of mediocre basketball so
one of these lucky teams can get bludgeoned in the Finals by (pick a team in
the West).



We welcome back Milwaukee after last year's spring meltdown. Otherwise, it's
the same, not so magnificent seven from last season, which means we won't be
seeing Michael Jordan when NBA interest is supposedly at its peak, and the
Atlanta Hawks season ticket-holders -- all five of them -- can start checking
the mail for those rebate checks.

Asked to view the East, the Wizards coach, Doug Collins, offered the obvious:
''I don't think there's any clear-cut favorite. This past week, it looked like
nobody wanted to win it.''

He's got that right. Only eight games separated the No. 1 team from the No. 8,
the closest gap since the lockout season, when the No. 8 Knicks finished only
six games astern of No. 1 Miami.

The Pistons clinched the top spot when they barely beat the mighty Cavaliers,
at home, but only after Smush Parker missed a dunk at the buzzer. The Nets
clinched the Atlantic Division after Philadelphia got blowtorched in Chicago.
The Bulls, by the way, had one of those Rick Pitino Aprils, beating four
playoff teams with nothing on the line.

The playoff team playing the best basketball is New Orleans, which has a
five-game winning streak. The Hornets, by virtue of their home base, are
easily the favorite of the NBA's media corps to make it to the Finals. They
also might get there on merit alone.

Here's a look at the first-round matchups:

1. DETROIT vs. 8. ORLANDO

Regular-season records: Detroit 50-32, Orlando 42-40

Season series: Detroit, 2-1

Overview: You have to wonder if the Magic knew something we didn't when they
rested Tracy McGrady Wednesday night for their position-determining game
against the Bucks. Maybe they feel their chances are better against Detroit.
(They were 2-2 against the Nets.) The big unknown in this series is the status
and health of Ben Wallace, the glue to the Pistons' defense. If he's not
around to patrol his own no-fly zone, the Pistons can forget about any plans
to do anything meaningful in Hockeytown USA (although they should get further
than the Red Wings). Orlando has improved since adding rookies Gordan Giricek
and Drew Gooden from Memphis. And, in McGrady, they know they have the best
player on the floor for every game. He can be a one-man wrecking ball. But the
Pistons have more depth, more balance, and, even more important, know how to
play defense. Another big difference from last year: We may not have to be
subjected to those long, eye-pollution scoring droughts with the additions of
Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups. At least, that's the Pistons' thinking.
Detroit has been a remarkable story the last two years under Rick Carlisle.
This is the best team in the East? The Celtics exposed them last year. The
Magic don't have enough to bounce these guys, but McGrady has a chance to make
it interesting all by himself.

Prediction: Detroit in six

2. NEW JERSEY vs.

7. MILWAUKEE

Regular-season records: New Jersey 49-33, Milwaukee 42-40

Season series: 2-2

Overview: The Nets looked like they might go 82-0 when they smoked the Celtics
last fall in Manchester, N.H. They had added Dikembe Mutombo and Rodney Rogers
and were waiting for Chris Childs. As it turned out, the Nets won three fewer
games than last season and none of the three additions did much. Mutombo was
hurt and missed 56 games; he was put on the injured list earlier in the week,
but he can play in the postseason. Rogers never got into game shape and Childs
never recovered from an offseason spent at Waffle House. It remains to be seen
how much the Nets will use Mutombo; they certainly didn't miss him because he
can bog down their offense. The Nets are where they are because of Jason Kidd
-- and how they fare in the postseason could go a long way in determining if
he'll re-sign with the Nets. He has said he wants to, but we'll see. Kidd does
have most of his running mates back and Richard Jefferson has blossomed into a
terrific wing man. The Bucks go into the playoffs having won eight of nine,
but many of those victories are suspect because of who they played and the
closeness of the scores. They barely beat the McGrady-less Magic at home
Wednesday, for goodness sakes. Everyone was waiting for Milwaukee to come
together after trading for Gary Payton but, ironically, the team's biggest
problems have been on defense. The Glove undoubtedly will get the assignment
to bother Kidd -- and there's no one else in the East who can do it better.
The Bucks also have a very impressive offensive arsenal, which includes
possible Sixth Man Award winner Michael Redd, to go along with Payton, Sam
Cassell, Tim Thomas, and Toni Kukoc. The Nets had their hands full with No. 8
Indiana last year in the first round. This looks like more of the same.

Prediction: New Jersey in six

3. INDIANA vs. 6. BOSTON

Regular-season records: Indiana 48-34, Boston 44-38

Season series: 2-2

Overview: These teams went at each other back in the early 1990s in a couple
of fun first-round series, including a memorable five-gamer in 1991. Reggie
Miller is the only player on either team who played in those series, both won
by the favored Celtics. The roles are reversed this time. The Pacers were the
best team in the conference for the first 50-odd games of the season and then
mysteriously went Denver on us for a while. The big question: Has Indiana
gotten its mojo back in time for the equally unpredictable Celtics? Top to
bottom, the Pacers have the best roster in the conference. But they also have
the combustible Ron Artest and may have a worse point guard situation than the
Celtics. Witness their late-season signing of Tim Hardaway, who has been an
occasional spark when he's not a human life preserver for coach Isiah Thomas.
Indiana also has a significant advantage inside, with Jermaine O'Neal, the
conference's best big man, along with Brad Miller, who made the Eastern
Conference All-Star team. Brad Miller, however, may be limited because of foot
woes. Thomas has a deep bench, as well, and the Pacers were one of the best
home teams in the league. As for the Celtics, they limped into the playoffs by
going 8-11 over their final 19 games. Antoine Walker looks cooked and you can
be certain Artest will be living with Paul Pierce for as long as this series
progresses. Jim O'Brien, meanwhile, is third on the list of active NBA head
coaches in playoff winning percentage, trailing only the sainted Phil Jackson
and the underappreciated Gregg Popovich. But last year, O'Brien had a team
that came together at the right time, especially on the defensive end. This
year's team has been unable to do that, despite much talk about needing to do
that. That usually means it still ain't gonna happen. Boston has been defined
all season by its merry band of 3-point shooters, led by Walker, who will
probably be hoisting even more of them given the prospect of trying to go
inside against O'Neal. It could be a close series, but depth and balance tend
to prevail over seven games.

Prediction: Indiana in seven

4. PHILADELPHIA vs.

5. NEW ORLEANS

Regular-season records: Philadelphia 48-34, New Orleans 47-35

Season series: New Orleans, 2-1

Overview: The Sixers may not have wanted to be the hosts for Wednesday's
Michael Fest, but it basically ensured them a W because the Wiz had already
cashed in the season. That victory got them home court, but the Sixers are
going to need more than that against the Hornets. This Philly team appears to
be better than the team that lost to the Celtics last year. It's also
healthier. Well, sort of. Derrick Coleman and Keith Van Horn have been out,
although both played Wednesday and Van Horn looked like he had some spring in
his step. Philly also has improved defensively with the additions of Tyrone
Hill and Greg Buckner to go along with the usual suspects (Aaron McKie, Eric
Snow, and thief extraordinaire Allen Iverson). The Sixers were playing better
than anyone in the East until a late swoon, which included losses in New York
and Chicago that cost them a shot at the division crown. Iverson looked ready
to go Wednesday and he is a handful for anyone. There are a couple dicey
subplots for the Hornets. Coach Paul Silas is president and CEO of the I Hate
Derrick Coleman Club, so we could see a few darts in that area. Silas also is
finishing his contract and recently referred to his bosses, George Shinn and
Ray Woolridge, in a derogatory fashion. He's right, of course. But he's also
not coming back. He does have a team playing well and winning some big games
down the stretch, including an 87-74 verdict at New Jersey. The Hornets'
preferred starting five has played together for only one week since the middle
of the season. If Baron Davis (back, knee, ankle) is healthy, the Hornets are
a tough out for anyone. And, as the Lakers might tell people this season,
history favors the No. 5 seed in these first-round matchups.

Thanks,

Steve
sb@maine.rr.com

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