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baker vs. rogers
I know this Baker/Rogers thing has been a dead horse for a while, but
this comment from CNN/SI's season preview caught my attention:
Their playoff success last year came because they acquired a quality
third scorer, Rodney Rogers, who was able to take some of the heat
off Pierce and Walker.
Rogers is gone, however, and Vin Baker seems unlikely to fill the void.
The difference between this comment and the criticisms bandied about
here for most of the summer is that CNN/SI says straight-up that
Rodney is a better 3rd scorer than Vin Baker. Nevermind contracts,
or the cap situation. Mano-a-mano Rogers is better.
That led me to do some checking/comparisons between Rogers and Baker.
They have each been in the league since 93-94, 9 years. I too was
sad to see Rogers go, but I find CNN/SI's (and some on this lists')
contention that Baker can't fill Rogers' void considering:
* Rogers has never averaged more pts. than Baker. In 8 of 9 seasons
Baker avgs. more, in 2000-01 they both avg. 12.2
* Rogers has never averaged more rebs. than Baker.
* Rogers avgs. more steals per game (1.07 vs. .81 (career)) but fewer
blocks (.56 vs. 1.12)
* Even over the last 3 years -- which are generally considered to be
Baker's worst and among Rogers best (97-98 w/ LAC was his best
statistically); Vin has avg. more points (14.3 to 12.6), and reb
(6.6 to 4.8) while only avg. 5 more minutes a game. Their Assists
(1.5 (baker) to 1.9 (rogers)), Steals (0.5 to 1.1) and blocks are
almost identical (0.8 to 0.5)
* If you account for the fact that since the Lockout season (98-99)
Rogers has become a 6th man (starting only 25 games in 4 years),
Rogers DOES have slightly better per-minute avgs (.48 pts/min vs. .45
for Baker; but .182 reb/min vs. .207 for Baker), but games are
played in 1 game units, not per-minute.
(side note: Rogers HAS adapted well to coming off the bench. I
think a strong arguement can be made that a part of Bakers slump over
the last 2 years come from the fact that he ceased being a starter
(of course its chicken and egg -- maybe he ceased being a starter b/c
of the slump). After starting 96% of the 515 games he played in from
93-2000, he has started only 52% the last 2 years. It may be that
Baker NEEDS to start. Some players need that to be into the game,
follow the flow, etc.)
* Career Avgs [note: outside of the Lockout season each player has
only played less than76 games (Baker last year 55; Rogers in 95-96,
67 games]:
Baker
16.9 pts
8.2 reb
2.2 asst
1.12 blks
48.6 FG%
35.7 mpg
Rogers
11.9 pts
4.6 reb
2.1 ast
.56 blks
46.3 FG %
26.5 mpg
I know that statistics can be deceiving and that none of this says
anything about chemistry, but I think its just foolish to suggest
that Rogers is head-and-shoulders a better player than even the Vin
Baker of the last 3 years. Yes Vin has not been the player he was in
Milwaukee, but he's not Bret Szabo for heaven's sake!
I might not have done the trade, but would have definitely done it if
we could have also retained Rogers. But overall I think it makes
our team better, not worse. We'll see of course, but I'm pumped
about the upcoming season
mark piotrowski
gainesville, fl