Bill Simmons' Terrific Look At The Draft

[Way Of The Ray <wayray@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Warning: Some former Celtics are portrayed in a negative light in this
article
If you can't handle criticism of Celtics players, don't read it.....

A terrific look at the draft bringing structure and coherence to what is
preceived as
chaotic.

Idiot's Guide to the NBA draft
By Bill Simmons
Page 2 columnist


Whenever experts discuss the NBA draft, the phrase "It's an inexact
science" always seems to pop up ... and it's an absolute crock. The
draft is an exact science. Teams always make the same mistakes. Players
always fail for the same reasons. The same dumb things always seem to
happen. And people make the NBA draft out to be a labyrinth of "Matthew
Perry dating Jennifer Capriati"-level proportions.


Jay Williams appears to be one of the can't-miss Top Tier players of
2002.
Well, it's not nearly that complicated. So because of the little-known
clause in my contract that I get to play Robo-Journalist twice per year,
I'm breaking down the draft process for you (and unleashing a ton of
meaningless information, so proceed at your own risk).

You can separate the draft into four tiers:

Tier No. 1: The Blue-Chippers
Usually goes about seven or eight players deep, with a 90-95 percent
success rate. Last year's class went seven deep (Kwame Brown, Tyson
Chandler, Pau Gasol, Eddy Curry, Jason Richardson, Shane Battier, Eddie
Griffin) before it dropped to the next level, which begs the question,
"Why don't teams try everything possible to move into the top group
during the draft?"

For instance, the 2002 draft goes seven deep: Yao Ming, Jay Williams,
Mike Dunleavy Jr., Chris Wilcox, Drew Gooden, the Eastern European Guy
(Nikoloz Tskitishvili), Caron Butler ... and if you want to throw in the
Brazilian Guy (Maybyner Hilario), that's fine, we can make it eight. So
if you're Phoenix sitting at No. 9 this week, you're thinking, "All
right, if we don't move up at least one spot, suddenly our odds drop
from 90-95 percent to 50 percent." Why not just make a deal, for God's
sake? Why wouldn't it be worth an extra No. 1 or a player to increase
your odds from 50 percent to 95 percent?

(By the way, did you notice how I pulled a Hubie Brown and used the
second person there? I'm full of tricks.)

Tier No. 2: The Maybes
Usually stretches from the No. 8-9 pick to the No. 14-15 pick, with at
least two or three of these guys failing miserably (you have about a 40
percent chance of landing a starter in this group). Last year's Second
Tier went seven deep (DeSagana Diop, Rodney White, Joe Johnson, Kedrick
Brown, Vlad Radmanovic, Richard Jefferson, Troy Murphy) ... it's too
early to tell which of those guys will pan out, although it's pretty
safe to say that DeSagana Diop will be sharing a condo with Yinka Dare,
Luther Wright and Sharone Wright in a few years.


If the 1996 draft were held today, you can bet Kobe Bryant would go No.
1.
(Note: This is the region that usually makes or breaks a draft. For
instance, the '96 draft produced Kobe Bryant, Peja Stojakovic, Kerry
Kittles and Steve Nash in Tier No. 2. On the flip side, the 2000 Draft
didn't yield a single potential starter from No. 5 to No. 15, with the
possible exception of Courtney Alexander. So you never know.)

Tier No. 3: The Gambles
Welcome to the second half of the first round ... start rollin' the
dice! Will it come up Theo Ratliff ... or will it come up Billy Curley?
Odds are, it's coming up Curley. Last year's class featured three Third
Tier guys who showed potential (Jason Collins, Jamaal Tinsley, Tony
Parker), two maybes (Brendan Haywood and Zach Randolph) and one foreign
possibility (Raul Lopez), proving yet again that the success rate drops
to about 20 percent here (sometimes even less). On the bright side, the
chances of picking up a Goofy White Guy for your 12th man increase to
90-95 percent.

Tier No. 4: The Second Rounders
Now you're batting about 10 percent -- only two or three second rounders
per season eventually contribute in an NBA eight-man rotation. Last
year's class featured Trenton Hassell and Gilbert Arenas ... and that's
it. Not exactly a murderer's row.

So those are the four levels, which could apply to any draft in the past
two decades, with one major exception (the inexplicable, "X-Files"-esque
2000 Draft, which featured three blue-chippers in the top five picks, an
astounding 10 straight stinkers, then six consecutive sleeper picks),
and one minor exception (the '97 Draft, which featured a stronger pool
from No. 8-14 then No. 2-7).

Here's the point: Only Tier No. 1 and Tier No. 2 really matter -- the
first 13-14 picks, usually -- and it's a crapshoot after that. After
Tier No. 2 closes, unless your team selects an overseas talent with
signability questions -- like Peja Stojakovic (No. 14, 1996) or Andrei
Kirilenko (No. 24, 1999) -- you're getting someone with a.) a 12-15
percent chance of breaking your eight-man rotation some day, and b.) a
5-10 percent chance of potentially starting for you. So why even keep a
pick below No. 15? Why not trade it every year, then use the extra cash
for a free agent (a cheaper veteran who could help for a year, like
Erick Strickland or Jimmy Jackson)? Doesn't that make more sense?

Anyway, since the same types of players are selected after Tier No. 2 in
every draft, and since an overwhelming amount of them fail, here's my
list of my "Top 10 Favorite Character Traits To Steer Away From After
The Lottery." If your favorite team takes somebody out of one of these
groups Wednesday night ... well, my sincerest regrets:

1. The Jerome Moisos
Guys who use workouts/camps to disguise the fact that they either a.)
sucked in college, or b.) underachieved in college, or c.) didn't show
their full games in college ... somehow they always rope one stupid GM
into rolling the dice on them. I never understood the whole "Stock
shooting up in the workouts" phenomenon. If someone's good, wouldn't you
see that from them in college games? In Moiso's case, he wasn't even one
of the best three players on his team at UCLA ... after a few
"impressive" workouts, suddenly he was one of the top 11 players in the
2000 draft? You're either good or you're not.

(2002 Example: Miami guard John Salmons, who's pulling a Johnny Taylor
and climbing into the Top 25 this week. Did you ever watch a Miami game
over the past four years and say, "Boy, that John Salmons has pro
written all over him?" Now he might crack the Top 20. Go figure.)

2. The Ed O'Bannons
There isn't a more dreaded word during Draft Week than "Tweener" -- guys
either too small for the 4-spot and too big for the 3-spot (eg: Mark
Madsen), or too small for the 3-spot and too slow for the 2-spot (eg:
Sam Jacobson). It's one thing when you have the talent of Tweeners like
Corliss Williamson, Danny Fortson or Mo Taylor ... it's another thing
when you're Hanna Mottola or Pete Mickeal. Just for the record, Brad
Sellers and Brad Lohaus were my all-time favorite Tweeners. Any time
there's a 7-footer who's afraid to rebound and seems more comfortable 20
feet from the basket, you know you have something special.


Where is an NBA team going to play a walking beanpole like Tayshaun
Prince?
(2002 Example: Kentucky forward Tayshaun Prince ... 6-foot-9, 113
pounds. I can't even begin to imagine where an NBA contender would play
him.)

3. The Anthony Peelers
Head cases who drop from the Top 10 because of character flaws or
personal problems (eg: Courtney Alexander, Erick Barkley, Donyell
Harvey). The worst thing that happened here was when Nick Van Exel
dropped to the 37th pick in '93, then evolved into a Top 10 point guard
... ever since then, teams ignore the red flags and take flyers on these
guys. Of course, even when they pan out (Danny Fortson, Alexander, Ron
Artest, John Wallace), they always seem to be better off playing 40
minutes a night for a crappy team. It's uncanny how that happens.

(2002 Example: Illinois guard Frank Williams ... you always worry when
people are questioning someone's work ethic in college. If they can't
get motivated to play consistently hard in college -- with millions of
dollars at stake for them down the road -- what makes you think these
guys will suddenly start playing hard once they sign a four-year,
multi-million contract? I don't get it.)

4. The Chris Herrens
Head cases who are clearly insane, yet somebodyhas to take them. Don't
names like Mamadou N'Diaye (No. 26, 2000), Herren (No. 33, 1999),
Tremaine Fowlkes and his samurai sword (No. 54, 1998), God Shammgod (No.
46, 1997), Dontonio Wingfield (No. 37, 1994) and the immortal Dontae
Jones (No. 21, 1997) bring a smile to your face? Couldn't we put them on
the same minor-league team, with Bob Huggins as coach?

(2002 Example: None. With many regrets.)

5. The Scoonie Penns
Quality college players from quality programs who seemed like definite
first rounders during the season ... within three months, they dropped
like stones. Remember when Scoonie Penn seemed like a mortal lock for
the Lottery? Miles Simon? Tyus Edney? Dwayne Schintzius? Or my personal
favorites from the '80s, Steve Alford and Scott Skiles?

(2002 Example: Casey Jacobsen. Won't you feel a little jolt when he goes
No. 28 to the Lakers?)


No one will be surprised if Casey Jacobsen ends up next to Mark Madsen
on the Lakers bench.
6. The Doug Edwardses
Guys with "NBA Bodies" who never seem to have an "NBA Game" to match
(Jason Caffey, Corie Blount, Rodrick Rhodes, Soumila Samake, Don
MacLean, Mario Bennett, Dickey Simpkins, Cliff Rozier, etc.). An
enjoyable group, if only because you see them on the court and always
think to yourself, "Man, that guy looks like he should be good." And
they never are.

(2002 Example: Tennessee forward Marcus Haislip. Last week, ESPN's Andy
Katz wrote that Haislip "provides an intriguing glimpse into the future
with his shot-blocking skills and raw offensive moves." Translation:
"He's gonna suck.")

7. The Jerome Lanes
Guys destined for the minor leagues or Europe (eg: Khalid El-Amin, Schea
Cotton, Chris Carrawell). You know them when you see them; it's an
innate feel. Usually they came from big-time college programs, playing
just well enough that you entertained "Hey, he might not make a bad pro"
thoughts at least once in your life.

(2002 Example: Luke Recker. Again, you can't explain it.)

8. The Shawn Resperts
The proverbial "Shooting guard in a point guard's body." My favorite
category, because one gets taken every year -- Randolph Childress, Randy
Woods, James Robinson, Travis Mays, Erick Barkley, Eddie House, Keyon
Dooling, A.J. Guyton, Joe Forte -- and never, ever, ever ends up
contributing for a winning team. It's a mortal lock. House probably
panned out better than any of these guys in the past 10 years ... would
he have even seen the court if he played for the Lakers, Nets, Kings,
Celtics or Mavs this spring? Of course not.

(2002 Example: Juan Dixon. Outstanding college player. Just terrific.
And a helluva defensive player. But he can't handle the ball well enough
to play point, and anyone who thinks he can play the 2-guard at the NBA
level is obviously insane. So what's left? And by the way, I wouldn't be
shocked if we were calling this group "The Dajuan Wagners" five years
from now.)


Juan Dixon was a wonderful college player, but he's got NBA tweener
written all over him.
9. The Geert Hamminks
Foreign guys with either a.) unpronounceable names (eg: Mamadou N'diaye,
Dalibor Bagaric), or b.) names that just don't sound like names for a
quality NBA player (Frederic Weis, George Zidek). These guys never make
it unless they have "Kirilenko/Stojavokic"-level talent, yet they're
staying in Europe for seasoning.

(2002 Example: Croatian center Nenad Kristic. I know nothing about him
... just seems like he fits the mold.)

10. The Scott Haskins
Stiff centers who will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever,
ever, ever contribute for more than 10 minutes a game (and we use the
term "contribute" loosely). Of course, this is my favorite group. Check
out this list of BWG's (Big White Guys over the height of 6-9) taken
between the ninth and 35th picks in the past 12 years, then tell me if
you would go anywhere near Curtis Borchardt this year:

Alec Kessler ... Rich King ... Adam Keefe ... Weis ... Haskin ... Eric
Montross ... Cherokee Parks ... Loren Meyer ... Todd Fuller ... Les
Jepsen ... Bill Curley ... Chris Anstey ... Scot Pollard ... Paul Grant
... Michael Doleac ... Jim McIlvaine ... Gheorghe Muresan ... George
Zidek ... Jeff Foster ... Scott Padgett ... Joel Przybilla ... Jason
Collier ... Vitaly Potapenko ... Hammink ... Murphy ... Jake Tsakalidis
... Michael Bradley ... Bruno Sundov ... Kirk Haston ... Travis Knight
... Radoslav Nesterovic ... Jake Voskuhl ... Evan Eschmeyer ... Alex
Radojevic ... Zydrunas Ilgauskas ... Brian Evans ... Greg Ostertag ...
Loren Meyer ... Dwayne Schintzius ... Primor Brezic.

Good God! Even "CSI" doesn't feature that many stiffs. Out of those 41
players, Foster, Pollard and Ostertag were the only three Americans who
even remotely panned out; Nesterovic and Potapenko could be considered
"mediocre"; Murphy showed a little potential; and Ilgauskas could have
been special if not for his foot problems. That's eight players in all
-- none ever made an All-Star team, only two started for extended
stretches, and only Ostertag ever played for a serious contender (two if
you count Todd McCulloch, drafted No. 47 back in 1999). So why even go
there? Why even roll the dice?


Beware of any 7-footer who likes to play 15 feet from the hoop, like
Stanford's Curtis Borchardt.
(2002 Example: Borchardt. I can't wait for someone to take him in the
Top 10 this season. I'm giggling just thinking about it.)

***** ***** *****


So that's how the draft process breaks down. Make no mistake, there's a
method to this madness: The first two tiers always seem to sort
themselves out; you need luck and skill to navigate your way through
Tier No. 3; and hitting big in Tier No. 4 is like hitting big on a
scratch card -- it happens once every 10 years.

(Robo-Journalist Alert! Robo Journalist Alert!)

Just to prove my "90 percent-50 percent-15 percent-5 percent theory,"
I'm zooming through the last 10 drafts. Keep in mind, we're separating
each draft into tiers based on how experts felt at the time, not how
they would feel today. For instance, as amazing as this sounds, Calbert
Cheaney and Bobby Hurley were once considered to be blue-chippers back
in '93. There's a reason they were two of the best guys on the team that
played Nolte, Shaq and Penny at the end of "Blue Chips."

Anyway ...

2001
Top Tier: Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, Eddy Curry, Jason
Richardson, Shane Battier, Eddie Griffin

First dropoff point: No. 8 (DeSagana Diop)

Second Tier studs: Diop, Rodney White, Joe Johnson, Kedrick Brown, Vlad
Radmanovic, Richard Jefferson, Troy Murphy (too early to tell who makes
it)

Second dropoff point: No. 15 (Steven Hunter)

Third Tier surprises: Jason Collins (No. 18); Jamaal Tinsley (No. 28);
Tony Parker (No. 29)

Second Round surprises: Trenton Hassell, Gilbert Arenas

Top Tier if they did it again: Gasol, Chandler, Richardson, Curry,
Battier, Brown, Griffin

(Note: I hate judging drafts this early, but I can't imagine any
circumstance under which we'll say the words, "MJ made the right move
taking Kwame over Gasol.")



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 Busts 'R' Us
 My Favorite Busts From the '90s:

15. Frederic Weis (1999, No.15) -- You never hear anyone say, "I can't
believe Fred Weis never made it."

14. Adonal Foyle (1997, No. 8) -- The first Patriot League player to
become a Lottery pick ... and the last.

13. Todd Fuller (1996, No. 11) -- G-State passed up Kobe, Peja, Nash and
Jermaine O'Neal for him. Classic Warriors.

12. Bo Kimble (1990, No. 8) -- I'm still amazed that he never made it.
Didn't he have skills or am I crazy?

11. Dontae Jones (1997, No. 21) -- The classic "This guy's nuts, but
we'll roll the dice with him, anyway" pick by the Knicks ... made even
better by the fact that Rick Pitino traded for him.

10. Mark Macon (1991, No. 8) -- A shooting guard who couldn't shoot.

9. George Zidek (1995, No. 22) -- I remember giggling when the Hornets
took this guy. I mean, didn't they see him in college? Did they really
think the running lefty hook would translate on an NBA scale?

8. Robert Traylor (1998, No. 6) -- Over Pierce and Nowitzki. Absolutely
unbelievable.

7. Larry Hughes (1998, No. 8) -- Ditto.

6. Willie Burton (1990, No. 9) -- Scored 50 points in a game and was
hospitalized for depression shortly thereafter. Heat fans really ran the
gamut of emotions with Willie.

5. Todd Day (1992, No. 8) -- The human ebola virus. Maybe the most
despicable Celtic of all-time.

4. Harold Miner (1992, No. 12) -- Hey, it's baby MJ! Would anyone like
to adopt him?

3. Luther Wright (1993, No. 18) -- A serious head case.

2. Yinka Dare (1994, No. 14) -- Not only was he a colossal bust from Day
One, but it actually took the Nets five full years to get him off their
roster and return him back to the morgue.

1. Bill Curley (1994, No. 22) -- Before the '94 Draft, I vowed that
Curley would be a bigger stiff than Bernie Lomax; my Dad thought Curley
was the next Dave Cowens. In other words, I got a decade's worth of
father-son bragging rights from the Bill Curley Era. Just beautiful.


2000 Top Tier: Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Marcus
Fizer, Mike Miller

First dropoff point: No. 6 (DerMarr Johnson)

Second Tier studs: None (Johnson, Chris Mihm, Jamal Crawford, Przybilla,
Dooling, Moiso, Thomas, Alexander and Cleaves -- yikes)

Second dropoff point: No. 14 (Cleaves)

Third Tier surprises: Hidayet Turkoglu (No. 16); Desmond Mason (No. 17);
Quentin Richardson (No. 18); Magliore (No. 19); Morris Peterson (No. 21)

Second Round surprises: Eddie House, Michael Redd

Top Tier if they did it again: Martin, Miles, Miller (and that's it)

(Note: Just the weirdest draft ever. More "Unequivocal Busts" then
"Potential All-Stars" in the Top 15, then there were six consecutive
solid picks from No. 16-21. There's a distinct chance that this draft
might never yield an All-Star. Not one.)



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1999
Top Tier: Elton Brand, Steve Francis, Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, Jonathan
Bender, Wally Szczerbiak, Richard Hamilton, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion

First dropoff point: No. 10 (Jason Terry)

Second Tier studs: Terry, Corey Maggette

Second dropoff point: No. 14 (William Avery)

Third Tier surprises: Ron Artest (No. 16); James Posey (No. 19); Jeff
Foster (No. 21); Kenny Thomas (No. 22)

Second Round surprises: Todd McCulloch, Lee Nailon

Top Tier if they did it again: Francis, Davis, Miller, Marion, Brand,
Hamilton, Terry, Szczerbiak, Odom

(Note: If Lamar Odom hadn't thrown his career in the toilet, this draft
could have ranked right up there with the '98, '85, '84 and '81 Drafts
as one of the Top 5 drafts of the past 25 years. And it still might. The
"Francis vs. Davis vs. Miller at No. 1" argument is a good one.)



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1998
Top Tier: Michael Olowokandi, Mike Bibby, Raef LaFrentz, Antawn Jamison,
Vince Carter, Robert Traylor, Jason Williams, Larry Hughes, Dirk
Nowitzki, Paul Pierce

First dropoff point: No. 11 (Bonzi Wells)

Second Tier studs: Wells, Keon Clark, Michael Dickerson, Matt Harpring

Second dropoff point: No. 16 (Bryce Drew)

Third Tier surprises: Pat Garrity (No. 19); Ricky Davis (No. 21); Al
Harrington (No. 28); Nazr Mohammed (No. 29)

Second Round surprises: Ruben Patterson, Rashard Lewis, Cuttino Mobley,
Jahidi White

Top Tier if they did it again: Nowitzki, Pierce, Carter, Bibby,
Olowakandi, Jamison, Lewis, Wells, LaFrentz

(Note: Maybe the deepest draft of all-time -- this baby yielded 21
starters, four franchise guys and at least 10 possible All-Stars. Tough
to top. And it doubled as the most interesting draft to watch while it
was actually happening.)



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1997
Top Tier: Tim Duncan, Keith Van Horn, Chauncey Billups, Antonio Daniels,
Tony Battie, Ron Mercer, Tim Thomas

First dropoff point: No. 8 (Adonal Foyle)

Second Tier studs: Tracy McGrady, Danny Fortson, Derek Anderson, Maurice
Taylor

Second dropoff point: No. 15 (Kelvin Cato)

Third Tier surprises: Brevin Knight (No. 16); Scot Pollard (No. 19);
Bobby Jackson (No. 23)

Seond Round surprises: Alvin Williams

Top Tier if they did it again: Duncan, McGrady, Van Horn

(Note: Yucky draft. I'm not even sure if Van Horn should count as a Tier
No. 1 Guy ... I was just being generous. This thing was more top-heavy
than Christy Canyon.)



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1996
Top Tier: Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Ray Allen,
Antoine Walker

First dropoff point: No. 7 (Lorenzen Wright)

Second Tier studs: Kobe Bryant, Stojakovic, Kittles, Nash

Second dropoff point: No. 16 (Tony Delk)

Third Tier suprises: Jermaine O'Neal (No. 17); Zydrunas Ilgauskas (No.
20); Derek Fisher (No. 24); Jerome Williams (No. 26)

Second Round surprises: Moochie Norris, Jeff McInnis, Malik Rose,
Shandon Anderson

Top Tier if they did it again: Bryant, Iverson, Allen, Walker,
Abdur-Rahim, O'Neal, Stojakovic, Nash, Camby

(Note: Maybe the most important draft in NBA history, if only because it
came along at a time when the league desperately needed a talent
infusion. It also yielded the two most important NBA players of the past
nine drafts -- Kobe and Iverson.)



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1995
Top Tier: Joe Smith, Antonio McDyess, Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace,
Kevin Garnett, Bryant Reeves, Damon Stoudamire

First dropoff point: No. 8 (Shawn Respert)

Second Tier studs: Kurt Thomas, Corliss Williamson, Brent Barry

Second dropoff point: No. 16, Alan Henderson

Third Tier surprises: Theo Ratliff (No. 18); Michael Finley (No. 21);
Greg Ostertag (No. 28)

Second Round surprises: Eric Snow

Top Tier if they did it again: Garnett, Wallace, McDyess, Stackhouse,
Finley, Ratliff, Stoudamire

(Note: This one fits my Draft Model perfectly -- seven deep at the top,
three more guys hitting from No. 8-15, three more hitting in the second
half, then one good second rounder. Bonus points here because Fred
Hoiberg and Constantin Popa went back-to-back in the second round. Good
times!)



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1994
Top Tier: Glenn Robinson, Jason Kidd, Grant Hill, Donyell Marshall,
Juwan Howard

First dropoff point: No. 6 (Sharone Wright)

Second Tier studs: Brian Grant, Eddie Jones, Jalen Rose

Second dropoff point: No. 14 (Yinka Dare)

Third Tier surprises: Aaron McKie (No. 17); Wesley Person (No. 23);
Charlie Ward (No. 26)

Second Round surprises: Howard Eisley, Voshon Lenard

Top Tier if they did it again: Kidd, Hill, Rose, Robinson, Jones,
Marshall, Howard, Grant

(Note: Looks much better on paper than it actually ended up turning out
... out of the Top Tier Guys, only the Big Dog still plays with his
original team, and that probably changes this summer. Don't you love
seeing the Yinka Express in there, by the way?)



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1993
Top Tier: Chris Webber, Shawn Bradley, Penny Hardaway, Jamal Mashburn,
Isaiah Rider, Calbert Cheaney, Bobby Hurley, Vin Baker

First dropoff point: No. 9 (Rodney Rogers)

Second Tier studs: Rogers, Allan Houston, George Lynch

Second dropoff point: No. 15 (Scott Haskin)

Third Tier surprises: Chris Mills (No. 22); Sam Cassell (No. 24)

Second Round Surprises: Lucious Harris, Nick Van Exel, Bryon Russell

Top Tier if they did it again: Webber, Hardaway, Mashburn, Houston,
Baker, Van Exel, Rider

(Note: This might have been the all-time Head Case Draft -- C-Webb,
Penny, Rider, Baker, Cassell and Van Exel. What was in the water that
year?)



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1992
Top Tier: Shaquille O'Neal, Alonzo Mourning, Christian Laettner, Jimmy
Jackson, LaPhonso Ellis, Tom Gugliotta, Walt Williams

First dropoff point: No. 8 (Todd Day)

Second Tier studs: Clarence Weatherspoon, Robert Horry

Second dropoff point: No. 16 (Randy Woods)

Third Tier surprises: Doug Christie (No. 17); Tracy Murray (No. 18); Jon
Barry (No. 21); Latrell Sprewell (No. 24)

Second Round surprises: P.J. Brown, Matt Geiger

Top Tier if they did it again: Shaq, Mourning, Sprewell, Gugliotta,
Horry, Laettner, Ellis

(Note: Strange draft. The NBA draft yielded two franchise centers since
Mr. Robinson in '87, and somehow those two centers went 1-2 in the same
draft. I think it's even weirder that Laettner, Jackson, Googs, Williams
and Ellis all had the same career -- they peaked early, ended up
underachieving and suffering some bad luck, and yet they all made some
money. Plus, Bob Horry -- the NBA's version of Nate Dogg -- was involved
in this draft. And Doug Christie, the most whipped professional athlete
of all-time. Weird all around. This might be the best "On Paper" draft
of all-time.)

And just for fun ...



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2002 (projected)
Top Tier: Ming, Williams, Dunleavy Jr., Gooden, Wilcox, Butler, Hilario,
Tskitishvilli

First dropoff point: No. 9 (Jared Jeffries)

Second Tier studs: Amare Stoudamire, DaJuan Wagner

Second dropoff point: No. 15 (Qyntel Woods)

Third Tier Surprises: Dan Dickau (No. 20), Dan Gadzuric (No. 23)

Second Round Surprises: ????

Top Tier if they did it again (in five years): Williams, Dunleavy,
Wilcox, Wagner, Hilario, Ming, Gooden, Stoudamire

(And yes, I think Yao Ming will be a semi-bust. Not a colossal bust on
the Bradley Scale, but a semi-bust. More on this in Wednesday night's
Draft Diary ...)

Bill Simmons is a columnist for Page 2 and ESPN The Magazine.