Andy Katz's Insight On The Draft

[Way Of The Ray <wayray@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Katz has the "juice" when it comes to the draft....

http://sports.espn.go.com/nbadraft/story?id=1399047
Tuesday, June 25
Updated: Wednesday, June 26, 6:35 AM ET

What to watch during draft night
By Andy Katz
ESPN.com

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NEW YORK -- The one apparent certainty about Wednesday night's NBA draft
is that Duke's Jay Williams will be the first player to shake NBA
commissioner David Stern's hand, even though he could be the second
player selected.

The likely first overall pick, Yao Ming, doesn't even have the wing span
to reach Stern's hand. Instead, the center will be available for the
television cameras only via satellite from China. He won't be in New
York City, missing one of the best photo ops in NBA history. That would
be the 7-foot-5 Yao towering over the 5-foot something Stern. We'll have
to wait until the fall to catch a glimpse of these two together.

But, while Yao won't be around in person, plenty of suspense remains.
Here's what else we can expect at the Theatre at Madison Square Garden:


The guest of honor won't be at the Garden party.
Will Yao's NBA status be known? The Rockets say everything is on target
to select Yao with the top pick in the draft. Houston wants assurances
that Yao won't be yanked during the regular season or playoffs. The
Rockets are encouraging Yao to play in the World Championships in
Indianapolis, the Asian Games this summer in South Korea and the
Olympics in Athens in 2004. The Chinese Basketball Association would
like something in writing that says what the Rockets have already
verbally agreed in China and to the media. But the official FIBA release
may not come by Wednesday night and it doesn't have to for the Rockets
to draft Yao. The 22-year-old is draft eligible regardless of red tape
and can be selected. Houston has gone too far to not pick him and no one
else has gone the distance with the Chinese. The CBA wants Yao to be the
top pick because they'll get more of his money, not to mention the
prestige they want for him as the first player selected. The Shanghai
Sharks want him to play in the NBA. That's why the final details of his
official release, and his deal to pay the CBA 50 percent of his
commercial endorsements and possibly a portion of his salary, not the
Sharks, shouldn't impede him being picked Wednesday. Both sides have
plenty of time to work out the final details, to essentially close the
deal, after the draft. When he's selected No. 1, Yao becomes the first
foreign professional player to be selected with the top pick.

Will foreign players dominate the draft? Not quite, but the foreign
players will once again hold a prominent role. Half the NBA's 2002
all-rookie team were foreigners and that could occur again in 2002-03.
Yao is atop the list but he'll have plenty of company. Nikoloz
Tskitishvili and Bostjan Nachbar of Benetton Treviso could both go in
the lottery. Tskitishvili will for sure, but Nachbar is pushing to get
his way in, too. Brazilian Maybyner "Nene" Hilario, Czech Jiri Welsch
and Yugoslavian Nenad Kristic are virtual locks for the first round,
with Hilario a likely lottery selection. Luis Scola of Spain, Australian
David Andersen of Kinder Bologna and possibly Yugoslavian Mladen
Sekularac could all be in the first round, too. The success of Pau Gasol
last season made teams, especially Washington, consider foreigners even
more. Foreign players are considered to be more skilled and ready to
deal with the rigors of the NBA lifestyle because they have played with
older pros overseas. The trend continues and isn't about to slow down.
Expect Denver, Houston, the Clippers, New York, Milwaukee, Phoenix, San
Antonio, Sacramento, Washington and Toronto to seriously consider going
foreign in this draft.

 Second-Round Steals
 Here are the players who have first-round talent, but no guarantees on
draft night:
Tito Maddox, Fresno State
Hasn't played in a year, but size and passing skills are first-round
quality.
Roger Mason Jr., Virginia
Shoulder injury has kept scorer from shining in workouts.
Smush Parker, Fordham
Raw, rising talent with a heady point-guard game.
J.R. Bremer, St. Bonaventure
One of the strongest guards in draft can score in bunches.
Ronald Murray, Shaw
Division II player of year shined in Chicago pre-draft camp.
Matt Barnes, UCLA
Prototype small forward who can score from anywhere on court
Kei Madison, Okaloosa-Walton CC
Several stops on JUCO circuit kept him out of the spotlight.
Lee Benson, Brown Mackie CC
Eye-catching skills and new outlook on life can't hide fact he's 28.
Lubos Barton, Valparaiso
One of the better shooters in the draft.
Rasual Butler, LaSalle
A potent scorer who dominated in A-10.
Randy Holcomb, S.D. State
Perhaps the most athletic forward in second round.
Chris Owens, Texas
An Ox on the boards, injury senior year keeps him out of first round.
Chris Jefferies, Fresno State
Great defender and athlete -- when healthy.
Robert Archibald, Illinois
Will give any team guts and determination off the bench.

How will trades affect the lottery or the entire first round? Tons. The
Hornets are already out of the first round, not to mention the entire
draft, after getting Courtney Alexander from Washington for the No. 17
selection. The Clippers hold the cards in this draft with the No. 8 and
No. 12 picks. If they trade one or both, then the lottery outside of the
top three could be turned upside down. Cleveland, Memphis, Phoenix,
Portland, New Jersey, Atlanta, Orlando, Golden State, Philadelphia and
Miami could all be involved in a draft-day trade (or several) to go
either up or down in the draft. The toughest team to figure in every
draft is always the Clippers. If they stand pat, then the draft could
fall according to most projections.

Who'll be the first senior taken? And how many will go in the first
round? Fresno State's Melvin Ely will likely be the first senior
selected (a fifth-year senior at that). He could go as high as No. 13 to
Milwaukee. Gonzaga's Dan Dickau is probably next on the senior list. He
could go in the mid-teens, as high as No. 16. Seniors Tayshaun Prince of
Kentucky, Dan Gadzuric of UCLA and Miami's John Salmons could be the
only other seniors taken in the first 28 picks. The other possible
seniors to sneak into the first round could be Oregon's Freddie Jones,
Maryland's Juan Dixon, Hawaii's Predrag Savovic, Notre Dame's Ryan
Humphrey, Arkansas State's Jason Jennings, USC's Sam Clancy or
Cincinnati's Steve Logan. These "veterans" are all in the ballpark for
the bottom of the first round, but more likely will wind up in the
second round. Shane Battier was the first senior selected last season at
No. 6 by Memphis. Only four seniors were taken in the first round last
season. While the lottery will be without a senior, the total should be
higher by at least one this year.

Which players are getting too much pub? Tskitishvili, Rod Grizzard,
Qyntel Woods and Krstic. Tskitishvili played in 11 games last season, so
it's hard to get a read on just how good he'll be, considering he
couldn't crack Benetton Treviso's lineup. He has skyrocketed without
really proving himself. Grizzard is still recovering from a broken leg,
but he could be in the first round even though he hasn't worked out for
any teams and is considered an athlete who can't make 3s. Woods got word
he was in the lottery and nixed the Memphis deal. He was the hottest
name for the first two months of the spring. Krstic hasn't proven
himself as a top center in Europe but could go in the first round
because of his "upside."

Give these guys some respect. Logan, Casey Jacobsen, Clancy and Aaron
McGhee have either been overlooked or pigeon-holed. But they all can
play at the next level. Logan is a tough point guard who will find a way
to score and won't be easily pushed around. But it looks like he's
slated for the second round. Jacobsen got no love because of his
defense, yet he's one of the best shooters in this draft and had to
fight to get into the first round. Clancy has been hurt by a kneecap
injury and seems to have dropped out of the first round. He was the
Pac-10 Player of the Year and one of the toughest scorers in the post
last season. However, he is probably going high in the second round.
McGhee was the MVP of the Portsmouth Invitational and simply finds a way
to get the ball around the basket and finish. But the dreaded
"undersized" tag hurts his stock.

Why only 28 first-round picks? Minnesota is still being punished for the
Joe Smith salary cap fiasco of two seasons ago. The Timberwolves didn't
have a first-round pick last season and don't again this season.
Minnesota has a second-round pick at No. 52. Atlanta, Dallas and Boston
don't have first-round picks, either. The Hornets now have neither,
sending Washington its No. 17 pick in exchange for Alexander.

What position will dominate this draft? Forwards. No question. Ten of
the first 13 players will likely be forwards, either small or power
forwards. The players who are getting selected Wednesday don't think
it's a trend. Next season's draft could be point-guard heavy. But the
truth is that there are more forwards than shooting guards or centers
who are ready to contribute in the NBA.

The name to know in 2003. LeBron James is a name that will be heard
Wednesday night more than any other prospect who isn't eligible for the
draft. The St. Mary-St. Vincent of Akron (Ohio) guard could have been
the top pick, possibly over Yao Ming, if he were draft eligible. But
he's a high school junior. He will be, barring a major injury, the top
pick in the 2003 draft.

Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. Katz covers the NBA draft for
ESPN.com and ESPN.