The future

["Thomas Murphy" <tfmiii@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Thanks to Mark and others on interesting comments regarding the near future
for the Celts. As far as I can see the near future will bring few changes
but hopefully those few will help, not hinder, the team's progress towards
the only goal worth striving for - an NBA championship.

Roster: we have six free agents (this info from Pat Bender- real GM is wrong
about McLeod):

e  Mark Blount ...........  C  7-0  250 11/30/75    2      $540,850
  r Omar Cook .............  G  6-1  190  1/28/82    1      $115,964
 l  Walter McCarty ........  F  6-10 230   2/1/74    6    $3,125,000
 lr Roshown McLeod ........  F  6-8  221 11/17/75    4    $1,509,001
 l  Rodney Rogers .........  F  6-7  255  6/20/71    9    $2,400,000
    Erick Strickland ......  G  6-3  210 11/25/73    6      $611,000

Cook and McLeod are restricted, we can re-sign McCarty, McLeod and Rogers
via Bird rules if we wish, and Blount is an early-bird - team can re-sign
(or match offer) player to 175% of last season's contract or the average
player salary (which ever is greater) to at least a 2 year contract.

This leaves nine players under contract: Walker (PF), Pierce(sg, SF),
Anderson (PG), EWilliams (SF), Potapenko (C), Battie (C), KBrown (SG, SF),
Forte (SG), and Delk (SG).

Kenny's contract reaches its max this year expires afterward. This makes him
valuable to teams looking to trade longer-term contracts in order to clear
cap-space. Of course, the Celts could always just elect to clear that cap
space themselves. Although it may not allow them to go under the cap it does
free up money under the luxury tax threshold to pursue FAs with our
exceptions.

It is now apparent the Wallace really botched the draft last year - not that
he was alone in that, but you only get three cracks at it once in a very
great while. This is not to say that Kedrick or Forte or even Joe Johnson
won't pan out, but just to observe that there were players of equal or
better value available WHO WOULD have addressed better the C's needs for
bulk/toughness/shotblocking or PG (rather than drafting what are essentially
three wing players).

We STILL need some combination of bulk/toughness/shotblocking and a PG but
whether we get it or not is open to question. The most dire need is,
ironically, a 2nd wing player who can score. This probably hurt the C's the
most in the series with NJ. The fact that Delk couldn't get it done was very
disappointing (but from my perspective not surprising). The hope is that
Kedrick can step up and start for the C's at SG next year. Given how little
we have seen of Kedrick however that is hard to project (unfortunately O'B
did not share Byron Scott's philosophy of bringing rookies along throughout
the season). IF that pans out then we are looking at the 9 signed players as
filling out the roster thus:

C - Battie, Potapenko (most likely begins season on DL)
PF - Walker
SF - Pierce, EWilliams
SG - KBrown, Delk
PG - Anderson
Doghouse - Forte?

Of the free agents it would seem that McLeod is done, McCarty is at best a
15th player, same with Blount, Strickland - although a superior player to
Delk due to defense and toughness - is caught in a numbers game and likely
does better for himself elsewhere, Cook is kept for an extended look (at
least in practice) not least because he is the only other player with PG
skills, and Rogers may go elsewhere for what is likely his last multi-year
contract. Rogers is the better player obtained in the deal with Phoenix and
he supplies bulk and bench scoring but he isn't an enforcer and (given he's
only 6'7" or so) merely an average rebounder and not a threat to block
shots. While he'd certainly plug a hole behind Walker and can play some C in
the eastern conference but he's not worth breaking the bank for. While it is
true that the Phoenix trade is a clear bust unless Rogers re-signs, one has
to do what is in the best interests of the team NOW without worrying how
today's moves reflect on past moves. Locking up a significant amount of the
future cap in a contract with Rogers may simply not be in the best interests
of the team at this point. Whether Rogers is back or not would seem to
depend on what other teams think of his skills at this point in his career.

Given all that the reasonable rotation at the beginning of the season would
seem to be:

C - Battie, Rogers?, Potapenko (most likely begins season on DL)
PF - Walker, Rogers?
SF - Pierce, EWilliams
SG - KBrown, Delk
PG - Anderson, Cook
Doghouse - Forte?, draft pick (#50)

Rogers would certainly solidify the rotation especially with Potapenko on
the DL or only just getting off it. But can the C's improve the center or PG
position? It will be hard to take advantage of Anderson's expiring contract
because (as Mark pointed out) he's the only proven PG on the team (gee,
great thing we didn't draft Tinsley or Parker) and the offense - as terrible
as it is - is SO much worse when he's not out there. Add to that the
management's belief in continuity (a good thing)and fact that the other
major piece of trade bait/fodder (Potapenko) is out injured and I think that
means that there will be no major trades in the off season. If there is a
trade I would expect it will be a prior-to-the-deadline trade like we saw
this year. Such timing would allow the C's to evaluate Anderson's potential
'replacement' (whether Cook or someone else) and also allow Potapenko to
prove to prospective trading partners that he has healed. As much as I'd
like to see Olowokandi suiting up for the C's I think the timing is poor for
any such trade to come together.

Improvement: where will it come from?

Given that the roster is likely to be pretty much the same a great deal of
any improvement will have to come from a better utilization of the roster
and maturation of the players themselves. Keys for improvement: developing a
true team offense that allows the players better and easier opportunities to
score (hopefully this includes a fast break as well). Other places to look
for improvement: the further maturation of Walker and Pierce and the
utilization of KBrown, Cook and Forte.