Leo Papile's math?

["hironaka@xxxxxxxxx"<hironaka@xxxxxxxxx>]

Can anyone, Kim Malo perhaps, deconstruct what Leo Papile 
said yesterday in the papers, which the Herald's Mark 
Cofman bought hook, line + sinker? 

The more Leo speaks these days, the more I feel like 
maybe we're being sold a used car instead of a 
ballplayer. Sometimes, he really does take fans to be 
fairly stupid.

***

http://www.bostonherald.com/sport/celtics/cs07252002.htm
``Yes, we're picking up $56 million, but we're giving 
away $30 million in the deal,'' said Papile, referring to 
the collective money owed Anderson, Potapenko and Forte 
on the remainder of their contracts. ``Over the four-year 
period it'll cost us about $7 million per year to have 
Vin here over the first three years, then about $4.7 
(million in the final year). So we take on an extra $26 
million (over four years) for a starting center who can 
also play power forward. What you have to take into 
account is how much a starting center costs in this 
league and then do the math." 

***

As spin goes, the 26 million seems "close enough", but 
the rest of it sounds invented in thin air (although I'm 
no cap expert). Am I wrong in saying this?

According to my rough math, it goes:

2002-3 One million in savings
2003-4 (6 million more against cap)
2004-5 (8.4 million more)
2005-6 (15.75 million more)
-----------------------------

The hard part, of course is that Antoine Walker is free 
in the summer of 04-05.

He'll be 28 by then, and we'll probably need a brand new 
owner by then to re-sign him or get back the same value 
in a sign-and-trade. Otherwise he's likely gone, even 
though Baker's 15.75 million finally clears the books 
just 12 months later.

Its not impossible to re-sign Walker. It would be a 
distortion to say that the Baker signing means we lose 
eight of last year's guys plus Antoine later on.

But one thing is for sure, Chris Wallace has to be 
extremely prudent in replacing expiring contracts leading 
toward 04-05.

We really are talking about needing a bunch of $350 
thousand rookie minimum wage type additions. A few first 
round picks to sign, and it gets even dicier.

Remember, Boston couldn't even afford to keep Joe Forte 
around (he would have made 1,080,000 in his last 
guaranteed year).

In addition, everyone Chris Wallace signs will have to 
agree to contracts that expire in 04-05, in order to 
assure we can sign Walker or sign and trade for equal 
talent rather than lose him outright. 

My view is that talent-wise the Baker trade did make good 
sense. If Obie develops the right zone defense and 
offensive sets, they will be a very competitive team. 

But I can't be too surprised if Chris Wallace jumps ship 
before 2004-05. That's when it all might hit the fan. 

If only he could have gotten Vin Baker to put his money 
where his mouth is about this career move, and transfered 
the final year of his contract into a team option.

Then, I would have to admit it might well be a bold but 
reasonable gambit he pulled off. All bases would be 
covered, as far as blocking Boston's two other max 
contracts from leaving with zero compensation.

Again, I'd feel a lot better if Rodney Rogers doesn't 
sign with Philly in the end. Its fortunate that they 
signed Monty Williams, since every extra cent could make 
the difference in signing Rogers while staying under the 
luxury tax. Still, in my worst nightmare I see Rogers 
signing with Philly just out of spite. I picture him in 
an empty gym shooting threes with Chris Wallace's face 
tacked onto the backboard.

So far this Summer I insisted that Rogers will sign in 
Boston and later that Gaston would never agree to Vin 
Baker's contract. As for Rogers not going to Philly, that 
would be a triple-or-nothing bet. I'd rather just keep my 
mouth shut rather than jinx the team any further.  

***



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