Re: Nightmare

[Kestas <Kestutis.Kveraga@dartmouth.edu>]

At 23:10 2/22/2002 -0500, you wrote:
>Not to be a Cassandra or anything.
>
>11-18, 11 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 turnovers.
>
>Put this down with "Paul Pierce stabbed in bar"
>and "ML Carr to name himself as coach" among
>my favorite Celtic memories of recent years.
>
>I never come out and say Celtics news is a disaster,
>but this is a disaster for the franchise. 

Oh, please. This assumption of some listmembers that, if only we had given
JJ, Billups and Moiso some time to develop, they would've turned into great
players HERE, is simply flawed reasoning. It goes like this: a change in
the input variable t (time) was followed by a change in the output variable
- the player's performance ('look at Billups and JJ now!'). THEREFORE, it
is the change in variable t that produced this outcome. The problem with
this reasoning is that, in addition to variable t,  there were also changes
in variables u, v, w, x, y, z...  - new team (three of them for Billups),
new plays, new coach, new organization, new climate, the wakeup jolt from
being traded in your rookie year... 
This is the same sort of fallacy that supplement companies use in their
'before' and 'after' picture ads to peddle useless crap to adolescent
males. 'This guy used supplement X for 12 weeks, and look at the change!'.
Well, assuming the picture wasn't doctored to begin with, the subject also
began weight and aerobic training, started eating healthy, used anabolic
steroids, got a tan, a shave, a haircut, a new set of teeth, oiled up,
learned to pose, and swapped Fruit of the Looms for posing trunks.   

Look, we all knew what JJ was capable of. The relevant question is, would
he have ever fulfilled his potential here? If the answer is no, then all
this wailing and gnashing of teeth is pointless. For all we know, he needed
to be traded to wake up from his slumber. Some players just need a change
of scenery to start producing. The Celtics were not going to trade Walker &
Pierce, sack Obie, and revamp the 'system' to see if that perchance would
get JJ's game going, especially with Kedrick already waiting in the wings.
When they were drafted, it was immediately obvious to a lot of  listmembers
that one of them will have to traded eventually. JJ was given his
opportunity. When he started sliding, his teammates and coach all
encouraged him to become more aggressive. He didn't. Kedrick stepped in and
took his spot, and JJ was history. That's pro sports for you. 
Kestas