Re: Formidable front line

["hironaka@xxxxxxxxx"<hironaka@xxxxxxxxx>]

> ---------- Initial message -----------
>I believe that the front line of Walker, Battie and 
Baker will be very
> difficult to defend. I assume that Baker will play 
center, Battie will be a
> power forward, which I believe he's better suited for, 
and Walker will
> probably move to the small forward. How many centers in 
the East will be
> able to deal with Baker? Ditto for Battie and any PF 
trying to guard him.
> This may sound strange, but I believe that if Walker 
moves to the small
> forward position, he'll probably utilize more of his 
inside game, as he'll
> post up opposing small forwards (imagine someone like 
Spreewell or Grant
> Hill trying to stop him down low).
> 
> -David
> 


Good points, but don't you think the issue is defense not 
offense?

One of the rote observations about our Boston Celtics 
last year vs. the season before is that the captains 
finally "matured" and that Antoine, in particular, 
started paying attention to "rebounding the ball 
more/again". 

In reality, as we all probably realize, Antoine averaged 
fewer rebounds last season than before (both compared to 
the previous seasons 8.9 and his career average). 

He also slumped to his worst FG% year bar none as a pro 
(.394 is twenty points off his previous rookie low), he 
fell considerably in assists (5.5 to 5.0), he fell in 
steals (1.70 to 1.50), blocks etc. In case you are 
wondering, this was despite playing slightly more mpgs 
than the previous year.

So what gives? If it seems I'm bashing Antoine Walker (my 
favourite NBA player), wait until I get to the REST of 
the team. 

Sidebar: Antoine Walker IMO deservedly had what it took 
to be voted an All Star game starter (Garnett's the only 
other guy that can claim "20-10-and-5"), and Pierce 
deservedly made the US national team (he might even be 
the go-to scorer this month).

But ultimately the difference last year was defense 
(hence wins, hence the recognition).

So I reiterate my original point. We fans can talk all 
day long about offense or lack thereof, and of finally 
having that "third scorer", lowpost threat etc.

But Boston might have a greatly improved offense and 
still only win 35 games. Boston has added third scorers 
before (Mercer, Kenny).

Last years offensive statistics fail to support the 
thesis that offense made the difference. The won-loss 
difference (a more than 20+ jump in wins including the 
playoffs) was principally due to the use of an 
established NBA defense (in this case, Dick Harter's)even 
with the same personnel as before. 

As counterintuitive as it can seem, all the evidence 
suggests Boston was successful on defense under 
Obie/Harter using a smaller, less traditional power 
forward/center lineup. And because Boston was more 
successful on defense, they became successful period. 

With the exception of turnovers, both the Celtics team 
and individual offense regressed or treaded water 
compared to the team that finished more than 10 games 
under .500 the year before. It all starts with Pierce and 
Walker.

Because of Paul Pierces increased scoring, the Celtics 
captains upped their combined scoring punch by a 
supercharged 0.2 points per game (48.2 to 48.4). 

At what cost in scoring efficiency did those 0.2 ppg 
come? In Bostons previous mediocre season, Pierce/Walker 
shot a good but not great .432 from the field combined. 
Last year, they shot .417 combined. 

You all want to blame all that on Antoine Walker right? I 
know you do! ;-)  Well blame Pierce too. He fell off .012 
points in FG% last year, and thats not including 
shooting .403 in our successful 16-game playoff run.

As a unit, the 57-win Celtics team declined in both FG% 
(down .424 from .428) and 3-point FG% (also a decline 
of .004). Moreover, there was a zero improvement in 
offensive boards and a trivial increase in team assists 
(0.2 more). Check it out for yourselves.

Im not arguing against Battie and Baker starting 
together, with Walker at small forward. I hope Obie 
finally experiments with it, since hes never done it 
before. 

The reality is that Obie seems to love Battie as his 
pivot guy and Walker as his ultra-versatile power 
forward. He loves Eric playing defense at small forward, 
until Kedrick can step into that role. 

And its been working. The Celts improved a 
remarkable .034 points on defense, including 0.28 on 
perimeter defense (3-point defense). They went from .470 
allowed under Coach Pitinochio, to .425 last year. 
Probably very few people thought we could play better 
than .450 defense with our non-traditional lineup, 
which had essentially the same personnel Pitino had at 
his disposal. And some of these guys had off-years 
(Walker, Tony Delk, Eric Williams and Strickland shot 
under .400).

Improved offense is not going to trump weakened defense. 
Remember the Nuggets and Hawks of the 80s? 

The key for 2002-03 is how the three newcomers to 
Bostons 8-man rotation (Vin Baker, Sham and Kedrick 
Brown) can impact the teams defensive efficiency. I 
think well see a bit more versatility with guys playing 
multiple positions in every game. But if Kedrick/Eric 
give more to team defense than Walker/Baker/Battie, then 
the former will get the starting small forward minutes.

Joe H.


(apologies for a long post)


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