RE: Antoine (was Re: Johnson Touted As Rookie With The Most Impac t)

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@BATTELLE.ORG>]

I never said Walker is the reason the team loses or that it would be
"addition by subtraction" to get rid of him. I also never called him a
ballhogging melonhead.

I don't believe Antoine contributes as much to the success of the team as he
is capable of. He's a great talent, but it's too often wasted because he's
so undisciplined. If you line up the players in the NBA who are 6-9 or
taller and have contests in shooting, dribbling and passing, Antoine almost
certainly would be among the most impressive players on the floor. But he
doesn't do enough with those skills. He's a tease. But we've seen him for
five years, and he's still teasing (and regressing in many areas). He's
running out of excuses. He got what he wanted when Pitino left, and he
seemed to take it as an invitation to do whatever he wanted on the floor.

We've debated the 3-point percentage thing over and over. Suffice it to say,
I don't think it's as simple as saying "36.7 percent is a good percentage."
If you're just looking at points per shot, you could make that argument. But
it's not that simple. Antoine isn't going to the line when he fires up
3-pointers. How many trips would he get if he were spending more time
attacking the basket? Also, every miss-whether it's a 2-pointer or
3-pointer-results in a rebound and fast break opportunity for the opponent.
I'd love to see a stat showing offensive efficiency across the league for
teams after a made basket as opposed to after a missed shot. I bet the
difference would be striking. Quick threes-one of Antoine's specialties-are
a demoralizing factor for the rest of the team. Ask yourself this: Do you
think the opposing coach when playing the Celtics would rather see Antoine
attacking the basket or firing 3-pointers?

Just look at Paul Pierce, who I felt in his second season was becoming too
passive and reliant on the 3-pointer. He changed his game last season and
became a lethal offensive player. He's unquestionably a better shooter than
Toine, yet he already has learned to pick his spots with the 3-pointer. He
attacks the basket again and again, and is among the league leaders in free
throw attempts and one of the most efficient offensive players in the
league. Toine is among the least efficient. He's had five years and doesn't
get it. He never will.

I've said many times that Toine is being judged while playing out of
position, and I really believe that's true. But it's a moot point. The
Celtics obviously believe he's a power forward (or point guard) and have
constructed the team so that the only option is for him to play power
forward on defense and de facto point guard on offense. So trying to predict
what he'd do at small forward is a waste of time. We won't find out until he
plays the position somewhere else. Regardless, I no longer think it really
would matter. I don't think Antoine cares one bit about how his play fits in
with or affects his teammates. He seems to play in a vacuum, and I don't
think that would change one bit if he changed positions.

One final point on Antoine: One of the favorite stats for his fans is his
assist average-5.5, I think. Just to show how meaningless that is, the
league's most notorious gunner-Jerry Stackhouse-nearly matched that with
Detroit (5.1 apg). Josh O. wrote eloquently about the difference between a
"Magic" assist and a "Michael" assist-creating something for a teammate that
wasn't there as opposed to dumping to an open teammate only when your own
scoring options are exhausted. Those are the Antoine/Stackhouse assists. And
another reason why arguments using only stats just aren't productive. You
have to see him to understand, and I've seen enough to know what kind of
player Antoine is.

Would the team be better without Antoine? Obviously not. But I'm not so sure
they wouldn't be better with a more traditional power forward in his place,
even if that player doesn't put up the numbers Antoine does.

Mark

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Alexander Wang [mailto:awang@MIT.EDU] 
Sent:	Wednesday, September 26, 2001 3:55 PM
To:	Berry, Mark  S; 'celtics@igtc.com'
Subject:	Re: Antoine (was Re: Johnson Touted As Rookie With The Most
Impact)

At 01:42 PM 9/26/01, Berry, Mark  S wrote:
>That's where I am with Antoine. He is what he is. He's entering his sixth
>season and his field goal percentage is falling into truly abysmal
>territory-41 percent. He leads the league in 3-point attempts and misses
but
>isn't in the top 50 in percentage. Meanwhile, his free throw attempts and
>rebounding numbers continue to decline. His turnovers are consistently bad.
...
>But stop blaming everyone else for his shortcomings. There are plenty of
>players in similar situations-bad teams (and teammates)-who manage to
>operate much more efficiently than Antoine. Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Antawn
>Jamison, Antonio McDyess, Kevin Garnett, Elton Brand, Vince Carter, Lamar
>Odom, Tracy McGrady, Steve Francis and Paul Pierce all operate under very
>similar circumstances (Pierce under identical circumstances) yet they all
>manage to make at least 45 percent of their shots.

I look around this list myself and wonder where all the "Walker apologists" 
who don't watch the games are. I don't recall anyone saying "Walker should 
be all-NBA." Mostly it seems that some people, including myself, disagree 
with the notion that Walker is the primary reason that this team loses, 
that it would be "addition by subtraction" to get rid of him, that he's a 
ballhogging "melonhead." I believe that Walker can certainly play better, 
but that applies to just about everyone on this team. And he's certainly 
not the most glaring weakness.

First of all, let's at least be accurate and separate the 41% figure into 
2pt and 3pt percentages. You simply can't lump them together and say, 41% 
is 41%, regardless of how many 3 pointers he takes. Now his 2 pt FG% is 
still low, 43% if I recall correctly, and that can certainly be criticized. 
He just hasn't been an efficient scorer throughout his career from inside, 
except for one year where he converted 47%.

On the 3 pointer, I think it was Peter May that originally brought up the 
"shoots the most but isn't in top 50 %" criticism. Honestly, I don't think 
this is really valid. First, there's generally an inverse relationship 
between volume and percentage (Kestas mentioned an inverted U which I think 
is probably right, but this is at the right end of that). Second, I think 
this top 50 is chosen right at a point to exclude Antoine, who at 36.7% 
just misses the top 50 cutoff of 37.4%. What's so magical about the top 50? 
Really, if you are converting more than the league average or more 
importantly, if you're getting more points this way than your team would 
get otherwise, then you're helping. This second criterion is impossible to 
quantify but the basic idea is, if you're shooting a good percentage, then 
you want to do this more rather than less, and 36.7% is a good percentage, 
regardless of whether it's in the top 50. Remember that a lot of these top 
50 players are role players who get to sit around and pick their spots 
because they're playing with more talented teammates who get them open 
looks or bail them out when the shot clock is running out too.

Even with all this, if Antoine's redeeming factor was two seasons of good 
three point shooting (along with three poor ones, I'd say that is a pretty 
poor player in general. I think you're a bit too quick to disregard his 
rebounding (because he plays so many minutes) and assists (because he 
dominates the ball). You could find a power forward that gives you the 
rebounding instead. You could find a point guard that gives you the assists 
instead. And you might be able to find a scorer that shoots a higher 
percentage (actually, 20 ppg scorers are not that easy to find, even if 
they only shoot 43% - there's only 24 in the league). But getting them in 
one package is definitely an undervalued asset. Guys you mention such as 
Brand, Jamison, and Shareef have somehow not managed to lead their teams to 
the 36 win level that Antoine managed to do in Pitino's first year with 
very little help. 36 wins is nothing to write home about but these 
offensively superior players haven't managed it either.

Anyway, Antoine's not on a level with the true stars in the game, and he 
may never be. I'm hoping that getting in shape is his first step towards 
that level. Like Noah, I can't blame him for many of the things he gets 
blasted for, because the supporting cast last year really was offensively 
pathetic. But I think for me, this is the year he has to really show 
improvement or, like Mark, I may give up on him, the way I soured on Mercer 
during his second year. Because he's supposedly coming into camp in great 
shape, he should have a better supporting cast with Johnson and several 
players returning from injury, he's got the coach that he evidently wanted, 
he hasn't had to deal with the offseason rumors of trades that supposedly 
upset him. I don't agree with all his 3 pointers especially if he's 
surrounded by better offensive talent; I think his defense needs serious 
improvement; and I think he can do significantly better than 43% inside, 
especially if someone else can get him the ball in good position.

Alex