Re: A riddle that could unlock the enigma that is Antoine

["j.hironaka" <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

At 21:12 18/09/01 -0400, CeltsSteve@AOL.com wrote:
>1) At his current 3-pt FG%, what is the theoretical cap/limit/threshold of
>3-pt attempts he should be allowed to put up per game given the position he
>plays (PF) and assuming they are not ill advised shots and occur within the
>flow of the game?

Hi CS:

Nice analysis on Toine.

Alex Wang, I think, recognized an inverse relationship between Walker's 2pt 
and 3pt scoring efficiency over the past two years. In other words, when 
Walker's 3pt% was crap as in 1999-2000, his 2pt% was greatly improved. Last 
year, that trend flip flopped.

The question is whether you can have the best of both worlds with Toine. It 
seems a reasonable conjecture that the more Toine is a "jack of all 
trades", the less likely he will ever maximize his potential efficiency in 
one key area to our satisfaction (low post scoring, for instance).

So if Boston's 2001-02 roster really features more perimeter snipers ready 
to step in this year (the three rookies plus Pierce), is it better for 
Toine to work on maximizing his effectiveness down low DESPITE the fact 
that there seems to be a ceiling on how good he can ever be down there?

Or do you continue to take advantage of his size and ability to get off 
clean looks from the perimeter as well as drawing the opponents better 
rebounders away from the paint? I'm not talking about occasionally, of 
course you should do that. I'm talking about 10 attempts per game.

Good or bad, I think its going to be Antoine's call in a lot of ways. This 
is a player's league.

His best years likely are still on the horizon, but I don't think Toine has 
the genius to be great at both posting up and facing the basket 25 feet 
away. You take the best big men in the league and the same thing can be 
said about them (except maybe KG). Larry Bird's don't grow on trees.

Assuming Toine can draw a good rebounder away from the basket, its not too 
far fetched to say the Celts won't get some compensatory weak side 
offensive rebounding from our smaller guys like Kedrick Brown (not next 
year but at least down the road).

Some people have compared Kedrick to Blue Edwards (where did that come 
from?), but a less random analogy might be a 6-8 version of Dee Brown. 
Small Florida school, power forward in college, projected at guard, top 5% 
in NBA jumping ability, above average shooting range and touch.

Compared to Toine or Bird, so much of Dee's game was predicated on his 
natural jumping ability, which he completely lost through injury very early 
in his career. A Dee Brown dunk was a thing of beauty.

With the rookie Kedrick Brown, we can only hope he will have a mostly 
injury free career as his game improves. You look at the career trajectory 
of guys like NC State's David Thompson and Louisville's Darrell Griffith, 
and you see the hit-or-miss risk in drafting these kinds of freaks of 
nature. In terms of character and intensity, there really wasn't much they 
lacked compared to a Julius Erving, Michael Jordan or Vince Carter.

While its absurd to say that Kedrick Brown is a "can't miss" player if he 
stays healthy, let's at least hope he has a chance to try to reach his 
potential injury-free. Knock on the nearest parquet.

It will be exciting to have that kind of sheer explosiveness on our Celtics 
team again.

Joe

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