Re: Athlon Sports on scoring efficiency

["Jim Meninno" <jam@london.com>]

I'm gonna take one last stab at getting Tom to see the light, and I promise
I'll be less sarcastic this time.  Tom makes a lot of good points about what
makes an effective offensive player, that's not at all what's being argued
here.

----- Original Message ----- From: "Thomas Murphy" <tfmiii@worldnet.att.net>

> How can this be? Although you suppose that your revision measures points
per
> possession in reality it fails to take into account MOST possessions -
those
> possessions when the given player is unable to exploit a viable scoring
> opportunity.

I don't think Alex has claimed what you say he has.  No measure calculated
from the statistics in a box score could ever calculate the points a player
generates every time he touches the ball.  The method you are defending does
not calculate scoring opportunities created from nothing.  It simply assumes
that all free throw attempts are created from nothing.  I think the whole
disagreement here is that you are trying to hold Alex's method up to the
claims you are making for the Athlon method.  The question is, does this
Athlon method make the kind of distinction you claim?  If it did, it would
be very useful, indeed.  But it doesn't.

> If one were to follow your measurement to its logical conclusion then we
> would have to say that someone like Steve Kerr is actually the most
> efficient scorer in NBA history.

This is why any efficiency measurement must be considered in the context of
volume to have any meaning.

> In attempting to measure all possessions you include those possessions
that
> result in foul shots. But including these possessions seems to imply that
> the FTs are simply and always a function of taking a shot.

Not at all.  Whether the foul shots resulted from attemped field goals or
not is irrelevant, the player made it a good opportunity to score.  That
will be reflected in the fact that he has a very good chance at converting
the free throws.  How good he is at creating these opportunities will be
reflected in his volume.  Even the original Athlon article pointed out that
the rating must be considered in relation to volume.

You also mention how some players have "attempts" that are shut off, whereas
others would turn them into free throws.  But, that only scratches the
surface.  Sometimes players will turn the ball over.  Sometimes they use
their own offensive abilities to create easy chances for other players.  I
think this only points out the impossibility of creating such a complete
offensive statistic.

My understanding is that Alex is trying to create a rating that tells how
efficient a  player is when he is able to create a scoring opportunity of
any kind for himself.  If you want to know how good he is at creating those
opportunities, you'll have to look at his volume.  Put those things together
and you have a pretty good idea of his overall scoring prowess.

Jim