RE: [Celtics' Stuff Raef etc.

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@BATTELLE.ORG>]

Raef certainly is a guy I'd try to steal, and for Vitaly and Forte, I think
it would be just that--a steal. His numbers are lousy this year, but the
contract thing, his deteriorating relationship with Issel and Nick Van
Exel's bin Walker-like shot propensity all seem to be contributing to that.
I just don't see how that trade does much for Denver. Vitaly can't even get
off the bench now behind the Russel/Chamberlain-like duo of Battie and
Blount. I have to think he has very little value around the league. And
Forte was the 21st pick in the draft and is being stashed on the injured
list. Celtic fans may have high hopes for him, but I can't imagine an
impartial observer around the league is especially enthralled. Would I add
Philly's first-rounder, or a lottery-protected first-rounder? Yes.

You mention trading Walker for Raef in some package. It's not as ludicrous
as it sounds if the rest of the package was right. Raef was ranked, I
believe, the fifth best center in the league by the Sporting News. Granted,
he's nowhere near Shaq or even Alonzo, but 14 points, 8 boards and 2 blocks
from a big man is pretty good. Someone earlier compared it to the
Stackhouse-for-Ratliff/McKie trade, and I'd say that's a decent comparison.
Would it turn out as well? Who can say, but I don't think it should be
dismissed out of hand. I wouldn't do that trade, by the way, especially now
that Raef's value seems way down and the Nugs' leverage seems weak (with
Raef being a restricted free agent after the season). But he's the kind of
target I hope the Celts are looking at. And by the way, I think Raef would
be even better if he could play his natural position, power forward,
alongside a true center (something the Celts obviously don't have).

The Stromile Swift suggestion earlier today also seemed like a good one,
except that he's a power forward almost exclusively and the 11th Commandment
is "Antoine will play 40 minutes a game at power forward..." Just for fun, I
checked RealGM and a Vitaly-Forte for Swift-Grant Long trade works after
Dec. 15 (when Forte becomes eligible for trade).

Joe, I actually think Josh is more correct when debating Antoine's value
around the league. He's right that there are always going to be GMs who
believe a talent like Toine just needs a change of scenery, and theirs is
the perfect spot. I think you're seriously undervaluing him if you think all
he'd fetch in trade is a Vin Baker-like player. I'd love to see Brian Grant
on this team, and that's probably a more realistic gauge of Toine's value,
but I still think you're aiming a little low. Lamar Odom? Before this second
drug suspension, I would have done that deal, assuming more deals would have
addressed the PF spot (because Odom is a small forward).

But any Walker trade talk is just talk. The "braintrust" really seems to
believe he's the best power forward in basketball, and he's not going
anywhere. Vitaly and Forte, I think, will be available. Maybe Battie or
Blount, maybe Kenny. I think the untouchables, in the eyes of the
"braintrust" are Walker, Pierce, Johnson and Kedrick Brown. Personally, I
don't think anyone is untouchable. The guy on that list I'd have the most
trouble giving up NOW is Kedrick Brown, simply because his value is lower
than it will ever be. The 11th pick would have fetched more, and you have to
believe Kedrick will develop enough to fetch more later. So trading him now
would be nuts. Doing so would be admitting a Moiso-like mistake. And they're
obviously not ready to do that.

Mark



 -----Original Message-----
From: 	j.hironaka [mailto:j.hironaka@unesco.org] 
Sent:	Friday, November 09, 2001 11:33 AM
To:	Celtics@igtc.com
Cc:	Celticsstuffgroup@yahoogroups.com
Subject:	[Celtics' Stuff Raef etc.

Raef LaFrentz is really struggling this year  (8.8 points, .419FG%) and he 
has a big contract that Issel might want to get out from under.

Obiewon has insisted on four shooters on the floor at all time (thus only 
Eric Williams can back up Walker). Two reasons why Raef might interest him 
is because 1) he can play a high post offense and shoot from the 3-point 
line (.351 career on more than two attempts per game) and 2) he blocks 
shots better than anyone we've had in maybe a decade (2.35 career in 30.8 
minutes) and he rebounds okay (7.8 career).

As noted, Boston ranks 25th in blocked shots and Vitaly has zero blocks 
going into his DNP-CD. This  makes it harder over time for Boston to 
continue playing the fantastic perimeter defense we've been playing 
(because you give up drives to the basket).

I'll pose this question. If Vitaly and Forte were enough to close the deal, 
do you guys think the potential reward is worth the risk? (risk being that 
Joe Forte will develop into another Joe Dumars or Terry Porter).

And what if its not that easy? What if our first round pick were also 
included (lotto protected)? How many of you would still do that?

Or finally what if it actually were "Anthrax bin Walker" etc. offered in a 
trade for cap anchors LaFrentz and Abdul-Wahad?

Maybe I'm alone here, but I continuie to think bin Walker's present trade 
value is considerably lower than his value to our team (both now and in the 
future). Because he'll compete, he's been worth 10-15 more wins per year to 
his team than Shareef Abdur Rahim has been to any of his teams. But what's 
he worth in a trade?

Aside from Bird, MJ and the Celtics front office, people don't really like 
Anthrax or view him as a gate attraction. After all how many NBA players 
get booed at home? Seriously.

He's pretty much a "cancer" and "coach killer" to the rest of the world. 
Bob Ryan's called him a "punk", Will McDonough and Peter May too, and now 
major syndicated writers across the land have caught up. Perception always 
lags behind reality. Try it out on your friends who are non-Celtics 
basketball fans. Ask them "what do you think of Antoine?" and see what you
get.

Here's what I think Walker's presently worth, although I'd love to hear 
other, more charitable views.  At the very top of the list of trades for 
players under the age of 30, I'd now certainly put Lamar Odom front and 
center because he's a two-time dope offender, his teams' don't win, and 
he's slumping badly this year 14.0 ppg on .308 shooting, whereas Walker is 
shooting just .356 so far.

I also think Vin Baker is very doable mainly because of his colossal salary 
and appetite. Raef LaFrentz fits the bill because he's kind of mediocre and 
the salaries can match up. Brian Grant is an outside possibilty (and I know 
many of you would be thrilled with that trade), only because Riley might 
see Walker as a potential franchise-player talent in ways that Boston fans 
don't. Marcus Camby would be a longshot, but you never know because he's a 
bigger headcase than Walker and can always be counted on to miss 
significant portions of the season through this or that nagging injury. 
There are always the thirty-something-year-old players that teams might 
trade for Walker as well, but that's not how Boston can rebuild toward #17.

Last summer provided a new kind of benchmark, with two established 20-10 
players in Elton Brand and Shareef going in exchange for high NBA draft 
picks. But I'm not convinced Walker could get us better than a pick 5-10 in 
a typical NBA draft, and first you'd have to make all the numbers work. One 
can't deny that Brand and Shareef have great reputations in terms of 
character, fan-friendliness and polished skills. So I feel that Walker's 
certainly not going to help bring to Boston a Jason Williams or Yao Ming 
this summer, unless he was part of a significantly bigger package.

This is one reason, although obviously not the main reason in my case, why 
I don't favor trading bin Walker right now. Certainly not this year.

Under present ownership, Boston is going to have to decide in four years 
(or sooner) whether Joe Johnson is talented enough at point forward to 
replace Walker. Everything depends on whether Kedrick and Joe Forte can 
replace Walker's offense. Right now they can't even get off the bench, must 
less replace his scoring.

At that eventual stage, it will be Walker (or Pierce) that goes for a role 
playing big man (Pierce would bring a lot more in return). Unless the 
luxury cap becomes a non-factor, Boston can't afford to re-sign even one of 
the three rookies to the max, much less find room for all three. Of course 
I'm assuming none of the three are a bust. I personally doubt they will be.

If the Celtics are a 50-win team in three years, then "Thanks Dad" might 
finally go over the cap instead of blowing up the team. But that's a big 
"if" at this stage.

Joe H.


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