Rookie watch

["j.hironaka" <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

Joe Johnson (12.0 ppg, .576FG%) ranks among the NBA leaders in several 
interesting categories, notably #3 in assists to turnover (10 : 1). Its a 
bit of a statistical fluke, since he's averaging just one assist every 11+ 
minutes (remarkably, Paul Pierce currently ranks just seventh on the team 
in assists).

So don't annoint him our point forward yet (someday I hope), but he's off 
to a solid, near Rookie of the Month type start, just like Paul Pierce and 
Adrian Griffin before him.

Among the top rookies, Kedrick and Forte aren't the only ones waiting in 
line for PT from their coaches. We all know that Obie has a thing with guys 
named Eric (or Erick), but other more experienced NBA coaches are also 
making their top draft picks sit despite fan impatience comparable to our own.

Of the first 15 picks in the draft, six are contributing 2 points or less 
per game (including Tyson Chandler, Kwame Brown and Randy White) and three 
others are shooting below .316 from the field (Jason Richardson, Eddie 
Griffin, Vladimir Radmanovic). These are the types of prospects that list 
members wanted Chris Wallace to trade up for on draft day. A lot of them 
may develop into the true stars of their draft class in due time, but so 
could Joe and Kedrick.

As a rookie, Dirk Nowitzki shot .206 on treys and was a poor defender and 
rebounder (3.4) as a rookie. In recent drafts Baron Davis, Tracy McGrady, 
Antawn Jamison, Jason Terry, Rip Hamilton were also quiet rookies. Most of 
us wouldn't object to trading Paul Pierce straight up for half of those guys.

Thus far you don't see any instant franchise player types like the Vince 
Carter and Paul Pierce phenomenon of a few years ago, but several rookies 
are off to a very impressive start. In terms of motivation to prove his 
doubters wrong, I guess Shane Battier is this year's Paul Pierce so far. 
The Memphis dynamic duo of Pau Gasol and Shane Battier continues to defy 
critics (although it hasn't translated into wins).

Here are the scoring leaders for the time being:

Shane Battier 14.5 ppg 6.5 rpg .440FG%
Richard Jefferson 12.8 ppg 4.3 rpg .514FG%
Joe Johnson 12.6 ppg .576FG%
Pau Gasol 9.0 ppg 4.5 rpg .571FG%
Troy Murphy 7.3 ppg 7.3 rpg .526FG%  (#2 in rebounds per 48 minutes)

But the current ROY leader has to be Jamaal Tinsley, who only ranks #1 in 
steals (3.0) and #3 in assists (10.3) in the NBA while shooting .500 from 
the field and .750 from the line. You've got to wonder what Utah was 
thinking drafting Real Madrid's 6-0 Raul Lopez three picks ahead of 
Tinsley. Time will tell, I guess.

Also, if you look at next year's "point guard" draft, aside from the two 
Duke guards you wonder if any will have had a better college resumi in 
terms of leadership and production. Why is Frank Williams a better prospect 
than Jamaal Tinsley was? I think it is because, in general, this season's 
collegiate crop looks to be inferior to those in the 2001 draft entry 
class, even though this year's class was overshadowed by the early-entry 
prep big men.

If Jason Williams had declared early, the NCAA would look like a wasteland 
filled mostly with flawed stars and a depleted Freshman class. Last year at 
this time, one could already sense that there might be a slew of typical 
lottery calibre players available. In the end, quite a few didn't live up 
to that advance billing (Jamaal Tinsley, Loren Woods & Brendan Haywood, 
freshmen Gerald Wallace & Zach Randolph, Joe Forte and Gilbert Arenas, 
Terrence Morris, Alvin Jones & Ken Johnson...). But at least they were 
recognizable names. This year, some of the top collegiate names sound no 
more exciting at this stage than Trenton Hassell or Jeff Trepagnier. And 
the next great prep class seems another year away.

Still, if we somehow knew Antonio McDyess would suffer a major injury, 
perhaps it would have been worth it to roll over the top-three lottery 
protected pick. Of course, if we could have predicted that then we also 
would have been able to stop the September 11th tragedy from happening. 
This was a much safer draft to be in.

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