Fairly interesting take from Sam Smith

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@BATTELLE.ORG>]

This is from Saturday's Sam Smith column. He's talking about the lack of
leverage the Bulls will have holding the top pick (since Yao Ming isn't
available). You might find the Antoine Walker references interesting...
Walker and 10&11 for Brand and 1? In a heartbeat. Everyone talks about this
draft and says these guys aren't going to help you next year. Fine. Neither
did Tracy McGrady or Kobe Bryant. Forget about next year. The draft isn't
about next year anymore. But it's still about talent, and talent is the name
of the game. Eddy Curry, Kwame Brown or Eddie Griffin would be major
acquisitions for any team in the league. Hopefully the Celtics have a little
more patience than these sports writers. Of course, these are the same
writers who will crucify any team that passes on a high schooler who turns
into an all-star three years from now...

Here's the column...



Bye-bye, Vince Carter. Forget Antoine Walker, Lamond Murray, Michael
Olowokandi and Keith Van Horn. Again as elusive as a Ming vase.

And the Bulls won't get Yao Ming either. Not that they had any business
going after the 7-foot-6-inch center from China. But Friday's word that Yao
will not enter the NBA draft is another blow to the Bulls, who have the best
odds of getting the No. 1 pick in next Sunday's NBA draft lottery.

With Duke's Jason Williams apparently opting to return to college, that made
Yao the consensus No. 1 pick. Many around the NBA were viewing Yao as the
next great force in the NBA, especially with zone defenses being permitted
starting next season.

One Eastern Conference general manager who has scouted Yao extensively said
he's better right now than 7-4 former Indiana center Rik Smits was in his
prime.

Yet there were big questions facing the team that gets the No. 1 pick,
especially if it's the Bulls. Namely, can anyone take a chance on passing up
the player virtually every NBA executive says is the best in this draft, and
maybe a future star center?

But with the league's poorest record and worst team, could the Bulls afford
the uncertainty of drafting a player from China? After all, Portland in 1986
drafted the world's best center, Arvydas Sabonis, who happened to be from
Russia. They got him nine years later. And with Jerry Krause doing the
negotiating, we might have ended up sending the Chinese another spy plane
before it was over. Plus, with the roster they have, would the Bulls have
any business taking on still another developmental player, assuming Yao is
not yet ready for NBA basketball?

Clearly, no. But Yao's presence in the draft still looked like a boon to the
team that would get the No. 1 pick. While the Bulls need veteran talent,
many teams would be willing to take a gamble on a potential star center.
Toronto, for instance. The Raptors have the No. 17 pick, and if they come to
believe they cannot re-sign Carter, they might have been tempted to deal
Carter and perhaps Charles Oakley for Elton Brand and the No. 1 pick.

There were other possibilities of trading the No. 1 pick for a lower pick
and a player. The Clippers have been trying to deal Olowokandi, whom the
Bulls liked a few years ago. The Nets have been trying to move Van Horn. The
Celtics are open to the possibility of trading Walker, and they have two
lottery picks.

The bidding could have gone high for the opportunity to land a potential
difference-maker such as Yao. The big player in the Yao sweepstakes, though,
was said to be Michael Jordan, who could be complicating the Bulls' plans
for years to come.

The thinking was that Yao would feel comfortable playing in Washington,
which is the most international city in the U.S. and has a heavy Chinese
government representation at its embassy. Plus there is a feeling that
Chinese interests want Yao to play for Jordan eventually.

And if Jordan is returning to play, which now seems likely, then who can
better afford to wait a year or two for Yao to come to the NBA, or be ready
to contribute? The scenario: Jordan plays two years in his traveling
basketball circus with Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing and perhaps Hakeem
Olajuwon. And then the Wizards could have a team in place anchored by Yao
and enough salary-cap space to go into the free-agent market for Carter,
Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki or Antawn Jamison. That was believed to be the
Wizards' plan for Yao.

But with no Jason Williams and no Yao Ming, there suddenly is no leverage.

Now the No. 1 pick most likely becomes a developmental pick.

As one Western Conference general manager observed: "[Orlando's] Mike Miller
was the Rookie of the Year this season. How many more games would Golden
State have won if they had him? Or the Bulls?"

The Bulls aren't in position to wait around for a developmental player with
the mess they have. Ticket renewals have been surprisingly good, though far
below capacity. Putting another inexperienced team on the floor could end up
costing the team millions of dollars in lost ticket revenue.

Poor teams like the Wizards are essentially aiming for the summer of 2003,
when an impressive free-agent class will hit the market.

But as the Bulls found out last summer, not having close to 40 wins and
being in playoff contention limits one's chances in free agency. The bucks
are stopping here. So the personnel mistakes have to stop here as well.

Krause treasures having the No. 1 pick. In effect, as he says, that means
controlling the draft, which this year may be like having the rights to the
best XFL team. Who really wants it?

It's not like there are no talented players in this draft, but it's unlikely
any of the top picks would help a team win one more game next season.

Scouts and team executives say four of the top six players could be high
school seniors, including Thornwood's Eddy Curry, an undersized center. The
other high schoolers regarded at his level are slender 7-footer Tyson
Chandler from Los Angeles, power forward Kwame Brown from Florida and
African center Dasagana Diop, who attended Oak Hill Academy this season. The
other elite players who could go in the top five are Seton Hall forward
Eddie Griffin, who has had discipline problems but is a wonderful athlete,
and Duke senior forward Shane Battier, who many say would fit well with a
veteran team.

Others who have a chance of cracking the top tier include UNC Charlotte
small forward Rodney White, Iowa State guard Jamaal Tinsley, Arkansas small
forward Joe Johnson, Notre Dame forward Troy Murphy, North Carolina guard
Joseph Forte and center Brendan Haywood, Michigan State forwards Zach
Randolph and Jason Richardson, Arizona forward Richard Jefferson and center
Loren Woods, Villanova forward Michael Bradley and Paul Gasol, a Toni
Kukoc-like forward who has been playing in Spain.

It hardly is the starting point for a dynasty, Ming or otherwise.