Why we need to keep the picks -- contra Cofman

["Joshua Ozersky" <jozersky@stny.rr.com>]

I think that the kind of deals Cofman suggests would be a great
error, not just for the long-term, but even for the organization's
short-term goals.  First of all, ridding ourselves of Kenny Anderson
in and of itself doesn't do anything for us.  It doesn't give us cap
relief.  It takes away talent at an all-time low value.  (Kenny can still
create his own shot and run a team, after all.)  And who knows what
it does for us in locker room terms?

On the other hand, losing a lottery pick is a major, major risk.  Just ask
Shawn Marion about that.  And in this draft, we could stand to get something
not just with our lottery picks, but even with the 21st pick.  Consider:

the draft is arguably eight players deep.  That's eight players who you
would
consider blue-chip prospects - some having different risk/payoff ratios than
others, but all no-brain selections for us if they slip.  They are

*Curry (baby Shaq)
*Brown (KJ clone)
*Griffin (superstar talent - could go #1 in a weak year)
*Battier (who we are agreeing to treat as a blue-chipper for his rare
leadership qualities.)
*Richardson (Vince Carter type)
*Randolph (gifted, smart, agile power forward)
*Chandler (Camby potential)
*Diop (incredible physical skills; rivals Curry)

A lot of these guys are very risky, so you can easily see them either
dropping or being bypassed by surer bets.  In any case, let's assume they
all go before we pick.  We still get the choice of some very comparable
talents, including Joe Johnson (Penny Hardaway/Lamar Odom type), Gerald
Wallace, Pao Gobol (nowitski?), Rodney White, etc.  I'll list them all:
Johnson
Wallace (aerial swingman deluxe)
White (more athletic Antoine style do-everything forward)
Troy Murphy (Tom Gugliotta redux)
Michael Bradley (compared to McHale - on offense, anyway)
Ousame Cisse (godlike physical specimen, averaged 13 blocks a game in high
school.)
Brendan Haywood (Ervin Johnson at worst)
Loren Woods (amazing talent - Camby-level shotblocker with offensive skills
out to mid range)
Jamaal Tinsley (considered top passer in college/ playground legend)
Joe Forte (flawless pedigree,  decent size, undeniable talent and
intelligence)
Jefferson (supreme defensive athlete in NCAA; finding "gunner" role)
Fotsis
Gilbert Arenas

All these guys are comparable to the bottom five lotto players.  And one of
them will be available at 21.  It's true.  Do the math.  So we are in a
position to get a starting caliber center (woods/haywood) AND/OR a gifted
swingman who can create his own shot AND/OR a physical superspecimen with
all-NBA potential.

Now admittedly some of these guys are only slight improvements over what we
have.  Shane Battier is an upgrade over Adrian Griffin, but not by enough to
make a big difference.  Jefferson gives you a bigger, more athletic Eric
Williams, but without the low-post moves.  Bradley has been compared to
McHale, but on defense, he will more likely resemble Christian Laetner.  But
if you take three guys, there is a good chance at least one of them will pan
out.  So unless we are getting a genuinely valuable young veteran, I have
real doubts about using any of the picks, even the worst one.  And as for
trading two of them just to rid ourselves of a veteran, that would be
madness, for all the reasons above.