Depth charts

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

One thing to note about O'Brien is that he generally shoots to play only 
eight or nine guys for significant minutes, as opposed to Pitino who might 
go to ten or eleven. We tend to be Celtics fans on this list which means we 
care more about the depth of our injury list than the average person. But 
in reality, what this team needs to head towards is having a solid, eight 
or nine-deep roster. Most likely, this is two point guards, three swingmen 
(2/3), and three to four big men (4/5) - you need an extra big man because 
they tend to get into foul trouble.

Right now we're looking at:
4/5 - Walker, Battie, Potapenko, Blount.
2/3 - Pierce, Johnson, and ? - either K. Brown, Williams, McLeod, Forte 
fighting out for this last spot.
1 - Anderson, Palacio.

Very limited minutes and reserves for injury purposes:
4/5 - McCarty. McLeod or Williams might play 4 in special situations.
2/3 - Whoever is left in the ? group above.
1 - Randy Brown.

It seems from last season that Palacio was ahead of Randy Brown on the 
depth chart, and Blount was ahead of Potapenko. Battie was actually the 
third-string center at the end of the season, but my feeling is that it was 
because he was coming back from injury. Assuming he's healthy again, I'd 
give him a good chance to start like he did at the beginning of next season.

When you look at the roster with the perspective of eight or nine players 
rather than 15, you make different moves. The luxury tax has changed the 
way team's manage their budget; for a lot of teams it behaves like a hard 
cap, which means you have to be careful to save money underneath it (as 
opposed to the soft cap where once you go over, spending doesn't 
necessarily affect your personnel flexibility). That's why the Celtics 
should stay away from lateral-type moves that give up $5M/year of the 
budget for guys who are either equivalent or slight upgrades over the guys 
in the top eight of the depth chart. You have to save the exception money 
for guys who fill a definite hole in your top eight.

Over the next two years, several unproductive contracts are set to expire: 
McCarty and McLeod next offseason, Anderson and R. Brown the season after 
that. In the meantime we'll add two or three first round draft picks. At 
that point, we'll have significant flexibility under the luxury tax, if not 
under the cap. The middle class exception is useful not just as a tool to 
sign players outright, but also as leverage to force sign-and-trades - in 
the way that Portland got Derek Anderson from the Spurs this year. It's big 
enough that a second tier free agent can plausibly threaten to take it if 
they don't get their wishes in a trade instead. The one definite hole is at 
point guard. Upgrading at the center position is more difficult obviously, 
with guys like Calvin Booth and Todd McCulloch getting big exception deals. 
I think a trade would be necessary here, using some combination of our 
current centers, our rookies (current and future), and draft picks.

Alex