Training camp

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

Now that Pierce is out of the hospital and hopefully on the way to a quick
recovery, my thoughts are moving to training camp which begins next week,
and the preseason games a week afterwards. I'm really impressed by Pierce's
statement that he wants to be at the beginning of camp, as unrealistic as
that may be. The guy has obviously been excited about coming in this season
and improving his play. Pitino's camps are notoriously grueling and I'd bet
there are some players who wouldn't be rushing back to attend them after
being stabbed.

This year is supposed to feature the return of the press. The press really
has not been used much over the past two seasons, and when it has it's
generally been with an untalented second unit. I believe that we're going
to see it more like we did during the first season, when the starters would
press also. What are some likely results? 

First, our shooting percentage allowed, already among the league's worst
last year, may go up. In Pitino's first year the Celtics gave up a
scorching 48% from the field, a percentage point worse than last year --
and this was before they changed the rules to help the offense. When the
press is broken, the opponents get more dunks, layups and open shots. Even
when the defense gets back, it's frequently out of position and mismatched.
Hopefully improved shotblocking from Battie, Moiso, and Blount will
mitigate this. Second, our opponents are probably going to shoot more free
throws. In Pitino's first year, opponents shot 2756 free throws. Last year
they shot 2563 -- with new rules that increased foul calls. Third, we will
force more turnovers. We ended up forcing two more turnovers than we gave
up last year. I can't find stats on celtics.com for the turnovers in the
first year, but it was significantly more.

So, will the press be a net positive? It could be, if a few things happen.
Although we'll probably give up a pretty bad shooting percentage, it may
not be much worse than what we'd do in a halfcourt defense, sad to say.
Similarly, although we'll foul more, we already foul an awful lot just from
being a poor defensive team and it may not be that much different. On the
other hand, it's possible that we could force a lot more turnovers, get
easy baskets, and wear out opponents with our depth. It would mean
conceding the areas that we are already weak and trying to take advantage
of our potential strengths. I think it's worth a shot because the one year
we were completely into pressing, we probably outperformed our talent level.

Another important issue is the fate of Robert Pack. I hope that the trade
for Herren goes through because it seems to make sense for everyone. Denver
was willing to deal Herren earlier this summer and doesn't seem to feel
that he can be their backup point right now. Pack doesn't want to play for
the Celtics and we don't have the minutes for him, while we could use a
developmental point guard behind our two thirtysomething point guards. He's
the right size, right age to develop with our other young players, and has
a passing mentality -- he could be a good fit a few years down the road. Of
course, if Pack regains his form he could be better than Brown or even
Anderson but I don't see that happening with the Celtics.

If Pierce is out, what will the lineup be? I don't see Antoine moving to
small forward because of this. We only have five big men, including Walker,
a rookie (Moiso), and a project (Blount). Moving Walker would make us
really thin in that area, which needs depth due to the fact that big men
foul a lot. Even without Pierce we have five guys at the 2/3 position --
Griffin, Williams, Carr, McCarty, Cheaney. I think we'll plug two of those
guys into the starting lineup, and I think Carr has a good shot because he
was explicitly described as "Pierce insurance."

I'm excited about Moiso also. It's still not clear what position he's going
to be playing but backup power forward seems the most likely right now. Of
course, small forward is a possibility. He supposedly can shoot the outside
shot so I don't see why he can't play the same role that McCarty did two
years ago. Pitino always makes cautious statements about his first-round
rookies but all of them have played significant roles so far. It seems like
he may have been picked more for down-the-road potential than guys like
Mercer or Pierce though.

Alex