Player evaluations - SFs

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

Concluding with SFs.

Paul Pierce is the starter, either here or at SG. Last year he made the
transition from SF to SG and there were somewhat predictable results: less
rebounds and blocks, more assists and steals. A less obvious result was
that he went to the line more. Part of this was due to his newly developed
"popcorn popper" upfake, and part was due to post up mismatches with
smaller SGs. His 450 free throws attempted led the team (in only 73 games)
and was 14th in the league, behind SGs Stackhouse and Iverson... and
surprisingly ahead of guys like Chris Webber and Kevin Garnett. 
	Pierce's production was 19.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2 spg (2nd in league)
in 35.4 mpg. He shot 47.6% from 2-pt range and a somewhat disappointing
34.3% from 3-pt range (after a scorching 41.2% in his rookie year). Along
with his fantastic ability to get to the line, these numbers put him ahead
of Antoine Walker as a pure scorer.
	Where does Pierce go from here? There's some disappointment on the list
that Vince Carter has left him behind. One thing to remember, though, is
that Carter in his first two years was the first option on his team. Pierce
was the #3 option as a rookie and one of two scorers this past year, so
it's probably natural that he doesn't produce as much in that department,
or progress as quickly. This is not to take away from Carter who is a
fantastic player, but they've been in different environments. I'd look
closer at the development of Kobe Bryant, who went from being the third
option behind Shaq and Eddie Jones to carrying a heavy scoring load now.
Bryant made a leap by improving his defense, ballhandling, and scoring a
bit more. I'm hoping Pierce can do the same.
	Pierce mentioned in his chat that he's watched film over the summer and
realized the mistakes he's made, which I think is a great sign. It shows
that he's not satisfied with his game. Statistically, I'm not expecting any
big jumps. But I'm hopeful that he can become a more dominating scorer,
drawing double teams and working well off Walker. He has the potential to
be the best perimeter defender on the team and he needs to focus on that also.

Eric Williams was the primary backup at small forward and one of the top
scorers off the bench. He recovered from a bad season in Denver to post
decent offensive numbers - 7.3 ppg on 44.6% from 2-pt range and a
surprising 34.7% from 3-pt range. He got to the line less than he used to
due to additional jump shooting. Heinsohn felt that his jump shot would
improve his offensive game by not allowing defenders to lay off him. One
particular play shocked me - he went up for an offensive rebound, caught it
on the way up, and windmill slammed it at full extension while still in the
air. I think it was a fluke but it was surprisingly athletic.
	A potential problem is that Pitino's system requires SFs to be able to
shoot that jump shot, hopefully out to 3-pt range, which isn't what Eric's
game has been about. He seems to be picking up on it though. Eric has time
to learn the system too, because his contract probably makes him
practically untradable. Depending on how McCarty comes in and how
extensively the press is used, he could lose playing time - and I think
there's a chance that Moiso gets some time in this spot too. In any case,
Eric's most likely role is as a scorer off the bench. Hopefully he'll keep
developing additional parts of his game and become a decent contributor.

Walter McCarty started off with a freaky three-point shooting clinic and
went downhill. He was evidently suffering from injuries through the season,
and probably also from the move away from the press. He was actually pretty
useful during Pitino's first year, when he was starting and bringing energy
to the press, forcing turnovers, and even scoring (frequently off
turnovers, which is why his shooting percentage wasn't so bad). Pitino
mentioned that Walter either needs to bulk up to play PF, or improve his
shooting to play SF. Perhaps having his health back will improve things, or
maybe he's improved over the summer, but right now he's probably not going
to see much time barring injuries. I have to say that a pressing frontcourt
of Battie, Moiso, and McCarty would be an interesting experiment. Probably
have to put Pierce in the backcourt somewhere to balance out the lack of
offensive skills.

Alex