Player evaluations - SGs

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

The SF and SG positions are in many ways interchangable in the Pitino
system. Pierce is currently listed on the Celtics roster at celtics.com as
a F so I'll go with that, though he'll spend time at both spots according
to Pitino.

The shooting guard position does not have a clear starter at this point.
Based on production and minutes last year (and assuming Pierce as the
starter at SF), Adrian Griffin would be the probable choice. Griffin
started out the season strong and was an integral part of many Celtics
wins, doing all the little things - grabbing and stealing rebounds, making
key defensive plays, creating on offense with passing, and even hitting
some key shots. After winning co-Rookie of the Month, he faded later in the
season with fatigue and injury problems. He averaged 6.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.5
apg, and 1.6 spg in 26.8 mpg. His shooting tailed off after a strong start,
to 44.7% from two-point range and 28.1% from 3-pt range.
	A key question for the Celtics is, are we going to get the Rookie of the
Month Griffin or the end of the season Griffin. Hopes are that his resting
this summer for the first time in years, and his ankle surgery, will bring
back the original player. His rebounding in the first half of the season
(from the SF position) resulted in the Celtics outrebounding their
opponents even without Fortson. We may need that from him this season.
	What we need from Griffin, if he is a starter, is the same type of play he
had early in the season, though he probably won't play over 30+ minutes
like he did back then. An interesting breakdown is Griffin's starting
stats: 8.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.9 spg in 31.9 mpg, shooting 47.5% from
2-pt range and 29.4% from 3-pt range, and this is after fading badly. In
the best case, he could come back even better after a year of NBA
experience. In his chat he says he's been working on his outside shot. I
think the starting position is still his at least for the first part of the
season, and I'm hoping for 10 ppg (to keep the defense honest), 5-7 rpg
depending on position, 3 apg in probably fewer minutes. If he recovers his
quickness after the ankle surgery, he'll still probably defend the toughest
SF/SG on the other team.

Chris Carr probably moves in as the primary backup at shooting guard,
though he supposedly plays some SF also. He fits in with the "back to the
press" movement as a top athlete and brings more of a change of pace and
style from Griffin than Cheaney would. Last year he averaged 9.3 ppg by
shooting 41.5% from 2-pt range and 31.7% from 3-pt range playing on the
worst offensive team in the league, the Bulls. Not exactly fantastic
credentials but their style of play may not have fit him well.
	Most likely what Carr will give us is a scoring mentality off the bench at
the 2 spot. Pitino always mentions him in the context of "what if Pierce
goes down?" so he is insurance in terms of scoring mentality, if not
ability, in an athletic package that fits in with the uptempo style. My
hope is that the coaches can do something about that shooting percentage
and that he can make things happen on the press with his athleticism. He'll
probably compete for the "top scorer off the bench" job that Barros has
filled for the past couple years, without the problems that we got playing
Barros at either SG or PG last year, but also without Barros' shooting
ability.

Who would have thought even a few years ago that Calbert Cheaney's main
role would be as a defensive stopper? On offense, he continued the downward
spiral that he's been on since his second year in the league. He averaged
4.0 ppg in 19.5 minutes and shot a shockingly low 21 free throws, hitting
only 9. He basically never drove to the basket and frequently passed up
open perimeter shots also, making him a liability on offense. It amazes me
because I remember him from his Indiana days when he was an assassin with
his jumper. I can't believe the same guy is shooting 42.9% on free throws.
	His defense was an asset however, as he was the lone perimeter guy who
would concentrate on shutting down his own man rather than gamble for
steals. He started more games late in the season as Griffin was fading.
Still, decent man-to-man defense is probably not enough to compensate for
this level of timidity on the floor, and it's not surprising to see his
name in the Pack/Herren trade rumor.
	The only thing I can hope for from Cheaney is that he undergoes some sort
of Nick Anderson revival (c. 1996-1998) though Nick Anderson never quite
sunk this low. Nick went through this confidence loss where he started shot
about 40% from the line for a season and a half; he stopped trying to get
to the line and his shooting fell drastically. He came out of it due to
religious self-discovery I believe, and started hitting free throws,
scoring well again, and throwing in improbable game-winning three pointers.
I think it's too much to hope for with Cheaney. But if he snaps out of it
somehow and just regains a little bit of confidence and aggressiveness,
he'll be a contributor in the rotation. If he regains anywhere near his
ability in college and in his first pro years, he'd easily be a starter.
Those are big ifs, though, and I'm not confident he'll be on the opening
day roster. The signing of Carr and the comments about the lack of scoring
from the position when Pierce goes down indicates that Pitino doesn't
anticipate Cheaney recovering his scoring touch.