Player evaluations - PFs

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

Continuing to the PF position.

Antoine Walker has been our starting power forward, despite occasional
suggestions from Pitino that he could move to small forward. Recently
Pitino had speculated about putting Walker at backup point guard. With the
additions of Brown and Pack, I don't see that happening. For now, he seems
likely to stay at power forward. 
	This is a key year for Antoine because it is the last year of his
base-year compensation status - which means at the end of the year, he'll
actually be easily tradable. The return of the press would seem at first
glance to be bad for a player like Antoine, who is not particularly
athletic. But his best year came when the Celtics pressed the most; he was
playing 40 minutes per game and averaged 22.4 ppg and 10.2 rpg, making the
All-Star team. The Celtics didn't press much last season but it seemed to
me that when they did, Antoine would get pumped up. He seems to feed off
getting easy baskets, which the press will do for him because he's usually
covering the inbound pass. It could be that pressing all the time forces
Antoine into good cardio fitness also - far from ideal but anything helps.
	Antoine actually made some strides last season, especially after the new
year. He shot 47.1% from 2 pt range, which is somewhat amazing because some
games he looks like he's getting every shot blocked. This was offset by a
wretched 25.6% performance from 3 pt range. He also improved his free throw
shooting to 70%, a career high, and improved his assists to 3.7 apg. Near
the end of the year he pushed both his assist and steal numbers up. On the
down side, his rebounding was a career low 8.0 rpg but part of that was
probably due to Fortson and the better overall team rebounding - for the
first time in the Pitino era, the Celtics actually outrebounded their
opponents.
	The number one thing that everyone hoped for from Walker was that he would
come into camp in great shape. It looks like he's sticking to his pickup
games, which is disappointing but better than nothing (I doubt that Kemp is
playing pickup games during his offseason). Even so I'm not ready to give
up hope. I would say that Walker could be a much better player even without
physical improvement. Two things stand out: shot selection, especially
three pointers, and a focus on passing. Let's say he took out the three
pointers and kept shooting 47% from the field, and pushed up his assists to
5 per game, which is less than he did during March and April. In March he
averaged 21.9 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 4.8 apg and shot 47% from the field. (That was
the month the Celtics lost four games at the buzzer). If he can maintain
that production through a season, the Celtics would be a playoff team and
he'd be All-NBA - and he doesn't have to be in fantastic shape.

Given that Walker will probably be on the floor for 35+ minutes per game,
there aren't that many backup minutes. I am speculating that Jerome Moiso
will be getting most of these. In his draft 2000 chat, he projected himself
as a SF because he didn't feel bulked up enough for the PF spot. My guess
is that he'll be fine on a press unit vs other team's second units. Minor
note: Moiso hasn't been signed yet, I believe. Probably we were keeping our
options open for trades.
	Pitino has gushed about the athleticism on this guy but has cautioned
about expecting too much too early. Wallace gave a similar evaluation and
mentioned his "length" and that he would help the second unit. From my
brief observation of him, the thing that stood out was his shotblocking.
The Celtics need all the help they can get in that department. He ran the
floor well also. I don't know what to expect from his statistically but he
should get some playing time at this position. Hopefully he can make things
happen on the second unit - get some putback dunks, alleyoops on the fast
break, block some shots, get some steals using his physical tools. Things
like man-to-man defense, post ups, and hitting jumpers are bonuses.

I could put McCarty here but I'll reserve him for small forward. Pitino had
mentioned that McCarty needed to decide which way to go, PF or SF, and he
was most likely a SF. If Walker has an injury, we might see McCarty,
Battie, or Blount filling in.

Alex