Player evaluations - Cs

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

Continuing on to the centers. 

Vitaly Potapenko was the starting center last year, but recent statements
by Pitino suggest that this may not be the case in the coming season. He
was also rumored to be involved in trades this summer, and the supposed
return to the press could diminish his role. 
	Partially due to Danny Fortson's presence, Vitaly's minutes dropped from
27.9 in the lockout season to 22.7 last season. As a result, most of his
stats dropped but increased on a per-minute basis. He averaged 9.2 ppg and
6.3 rpg and shot a career high 50% from the field. For an interior player,
he doesn't get to the line much because he relies on his jumper. On
defense, he doesn't challenge many shots because he lacks leaping ability,
and he seems to have trouble with quicker centers. His hands are not the
best. On the plus side he runs the floor quickly and his jumper could be
useful in the pick and roll.
	Vitaly's minutes may increase this season given that Fortson is gone;
however if he loses his starting role to Battie, his minutes could
decrease. Vitaly is supposedly a tireless worker during the offseason so
hopefully he'll show some improvement on a per-minute basis also, which
would mean that his production could exceed that of his lockout season (10
ppg, 6.6 rpg). If he could average 12 and 8, that would be a great
contribution for him, and would also boost his trade value. Vitaly may
never be an impact center on defense but I bet there are a lot of teams
that would love to have him on their roster, large contract or not.

Tony Battie is the inconsistent "upside" center. If the Celtics return to
all-out "Pitinoball" he could be an extremely important piece. Last season
he lost playing time (deservedly) to Fortson and his play regressed from
the previous season, especially in the vital blocked shots category. This
season there's talk that he could have a shot at the starting center job. I
almost think that Pitino should try it for the first part of the season
because Tony's game seems to fluctuate depending on his energy and
confidence, and maybe starting consistently would boost that.
	Battie's offensive game seems to consist of shooting jumpers, alley-oops,
and putbacks. I can't remember him ever using any sort of low-post move
with success. Whenever I see him shooting the 15 foot jumper I think
something's got to be wrong, but some of that may have been the result of
the wretched second unit offense. Even if Battie doesn't contribute
anything more than fast break and putback points, he could be very valuable
purely as a defensive force. I don't think he quite has the knack for
shotblocking that similar guys like Camby and Ratliff does, but if he can
somehow block just 2 shots per game (and challenge others regularly), he
would easily be our most valuable center.

Mark Blount is, according to Wallace, a "project plus." If he can give us
more than Pervis, he's a plus in my book. I don't expect a success story
like Griffin here. I'm expecting more of a third-string role here, where he
comes in when Vitaly and Tony have both picked up their two first half
fouls. His weight has been quoted at anywhere from 215 to 250, and he's
listed at nba.com as 7', 230 lbs. He seems to have some shotblocking
abilities, but then again so did Eric Riley.

In terms of contracts, Vitaly is still a base-year player but his salary is
not huge so the base-year factor is not as restrictive. Battie is just
entering his extension so base-year is somewhat bad for him, but he also
has a relatively small contract. If we do return to the "running, trapping,
shotblocking" style that Pitino is talking about, Vitaly may not be a great
fit, and he would be a tradable asset to a team that needs a capable backup
big man. I could see him being dealt at the end of the season when his BYC
expires, if Battie plays well and we have the possibility of getting
another center thru the draft.

Alex