The time is indeed nigh (prediction)

[bird <birdw@aloha.net>]

Now that the exhibition season is over, it's time for the prediction. 
I think the most likely result of the season is something like 38-41 
wins and flirting with making the playoffs but just missing. 
However, that's not my prediction.

The team won 35 games last year, but two major factors will help them 
improve in total wins: 1) Slightly improved team, and 2) Weaker 
Eastern Conference.

1) On paper, the team has improved from last year -- slightly. 
Instead of Battie, Fortson, Overton, Barros, Cheaney, and Griffin as 
a bench, we've got Battie, Blount, Brown, Herren, Stith, Carr and 
Moiso.  There's legitimate wondering about who has to sit on the IR. 
Also, it looks as if Walker and Pierce have somewhat improved their 
games.  Maybe not as much as one would hope, or in the areas one 
might expect, though.  Hard to tell this early, really, but I don't 
think either will regress very much, either.

On the other hand, the team has gotten worse in a few areas, too, 
most noticeably rebounding.  They'll probably also still make a lot 
of the same mistakes they always do.  They'll blow a few leads, and 
they'll let a few games slip by them.  They'll give up layups and 
dunks on the press, and they'll create turnovers.  In other words, 
lot's more of the same, tinged with some improvement.

2) The East looks weaker than last year, and obviously the C's play 
these teams more often.  Orlando, Milwaukee, and maybe Toronto are 
good teams.  Miami, Indy, the Knicks, and Philly could be the second 
tier and might even challenge the others.  Of the rest, Cleveland and 
Charlotte look to be the major competition for the last playoff spot. 
I think the Celts can challenge those last two teams for a playoff 
spot.  After Orlando, (and maybe including Orlando if Hill isn't near 
100%), the East is pretty open.  Bucks, Philly, NY, Miami, Toronto -- 
they could all end up with the second-best record.  This year, the 
eighth-seed might not even have a .500 record.

So, after all that, I see some improvement, some areas of weakness, 
and a lot more of the same things from Pitinoball and the players. 
But, I like the way many people have nudged thier predictions to the 
sunny side of the street, just because, hey, maybe that's what a fan 
ought to do.  (Even Joe's ritualistic prediction of 33 wins fits in 
here, too, I think.  Reminds me of when my wife won't watch the game 
because/when the Celts are playing poorly.)

I'm going with 42 wins, and a playoff berth.  If they win a playoff 
game, that's gravy.  Just getting to the dance will be worth it.

Regards,

Bill