.449 not bad

[Hironaka <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

I somehow recall reading that Pitino felt his defensive system could
translate into consistent NBA wins if the Celts could hold opponents to,
I think, less than .460FG%.

Whether he actually said this or not, this notion does make great sense
to me (since the Celts gamble and force so many turnovers).

But after getting pasted twice to start the preseason, the Celtics have
not only held opponents to a low FG% in the past four games (.449) but
they have done so with terrific consistency (44.6, 44.8, 44.6, 45.6).
Call it "Fo-Fo, Fo-Fo, Fo-Fo, Fo-Five".

Now consistency against four teams (none of whom incidentally made the
playoffs last year, although Orlando came closest) does not a winning
season make, but it is a positive sign regardless. A very positive sign
maybe.

These numbers would have placed the Celtics 14th in the league last
season, which puts us well within the margin of error for making the
playoffs given last year's ninth ranked offense in points per game.

Since I'm on this subject, I'll try to break it down just a little
further using the NBA.COM stats.

There is no stat for missed or avoided shot attempts, but the actual
numbers on our team shotblocks over the last four games has been fairly
unimpressive at 4.25 (which would have only ranked 25th in the league
last year).

As for rebounding and rebounding differential (a huge concern coming in)
the Celtics have averaged 40 a game in that span (3.0 less than last
season and sadly the equivalent of dead last in last season's NBA). They
have also been outrebounded by 3.5 per game (versus a plus 1.6 total
last year due to the Fortson-effect, with his 6.7 in 15.6 minutes).

Last year, the Celts averaged a whopping 3.0 more offensive boards last
season than their opponents, but thus far they have given up 56
offensive boards (a rather high total) and managed 47 themselves.

So lets hope we get better on the boards once the real games begin!
There could be upside once Batgirl stops moping about his empty,
idiotic, all-talk boast that he would start all 82 games at center, and
once Eurobattie stops doing the "tapisserie" (being a  wallflower) as
the French say. Moiso has what could be a painful to watch,
underachiever mentality mixed with his desire to contribute. I hope Bill
Russell and the other old-school people in camp grasp the level of his
innate talent and find a way to light a fire under him. He's slid into a
12th man slot in the past four games, averaging just 2.5 ppg.

I need to end with good news.  The Celtics are forcing a whopping 24.25
turnovers per game, 6.5 more than any team in the NBA last year. The
Celtics were fifth overall last year and if they are healthy, it is safe
to say that even Dan Forant would predict they can maintain or improve
on that level this year.

But the last stat also demonstrates why you can't read too much into
these mixed trends, because this is the (sloppy) preseason and just one
bad or good game tonight could blow up these emerging statistical
patterns (I do expect however that we can hold Atlanta to a "fo-fo"
shooting night). I know this post is an example of over-kill analysis,
but I guess this level of information is part of what this list exists
for.

Go Celts!


Joe

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