Re: Playoff race

[jmc@ptc.com]

Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>
> Onto the playoff race. Entering tonight's games, Boston is even with
> both Milwaukee and Orlando in the loss column, and one game ahead of
> New Jersey. Detroit is probably out of reach, four games ahead in the
> loss column, and having the tie-breaker advantage.
>
... 

Thanks, Alex, for the detailed tie-breaker analysis.  You can bet I'll 
refer to it often over the next couple of weeks. 

On a related note, I feel that I should point out to the list that 
looking at the difference in the "loss column" is not the best way to 
judge the actual distance between teams in the standings unless those 
teams have very strong winning records.  Since the best teams win most 
of their games, if one team has played 3 or 4 fewer games than another, 
it's very likely that they'll win all or all but one of those games as 
they catch up.  That's why looking at the loss column is a better 
measure than games behind in comparing the gap between teams at the very 
top of the league.  

However, when comparing teams at or just below .500, going by games 
behind is the best measure of the gap between teams, as those teams 
are just as likely to lose as they are to win.  So even though Detroit,
as of this morning is now 5 games ahead in the loss column, I ignore that 
and look at them as 4 games ahead (their actual games behind
difference), plus the tiebreaker.

Jon Mc

P.S.  If you still don't believe me, then think of it this way.  When 
comparing teams with the worst record in the league to see who'll most 
likely have the WORST record and have the top spot for the lottery, 
do you compare their difference in the loss column or their difference 
in the win column?  That's right.  You'd compare the difference in the 
WIN column.