predictions

[Jamey Rallis <rallis@vgi.com>]

As much as I don't have time to write this, Friday's are always good to
blow off a little steam.

(this is in no way meant as a flame, just trying to lend a different
perspective to gain a little understand and lovin' between everyone.)

At least some perspective from the holy "at least we're optimists,
believing in lots of Celtic wins, Fairy Godmothers, and Santa Claus".

No one is saying we're gloating because we were smart enough to predict
30-something wins, and the C's have sucked bad enough to make that a high
prediction at this point.  We're just giving back the crap that was
directed at us from the smug 40-predictors (and not all of them).  You
know, the ones that said anyone that thought the C's couldn't beat their
season of 2 years ago, basically must have been on Mars the last two
years.  We certainly weren't didn't anything about Celtic basketball.

My feeling is, there are 2 reasons people pick obscenely high win totals 
every year.

#1, we'll call the "bidding optimist", just wants attention,
so tries to outbid everyone else, either high or low.  Notice how most
bids are under 50, but 1 or 2 just jump way over.  Why not just finish the
bidding and say 82-0?  As Greg would say, they're smart enough to try and
make it somewhat respectable so we'll believe them.

#2, and this is where I can't believe smart folks like Bentz and others
can't figure this one out.  There are 3 kinds of bettors when it comes to
betting on your favorite team.  #1, "right above all else".  They actually
pick a number they believe in, because they want to be right.  #2,
"optimists", a few of which sound very much like "rightous, smug, holier
than thou optimists".  Believe that if they pick a high number, then they
can be right and happy.  If the team sucks, well, let's just forget about
the picks and start thinking how many wins they're gonna get next year.
'Cause next year could be THE YEAR.  and finally #3, the "pessimists".
While you're right, maybe a small fraction of these people want the team
to lose, just as the optimists want them to succeed, most of us (I picked
36) actually just like to be pleasantly surprised.  Why did I pick 36?
For one simple reason.  I thought they couldn't possibly do worse.  At
worst, they win 36 and I'm unhappily right.  At best, they win 46 and I
couldn't care what I picked.  I'll be too busy watching the playoffs.  The
only thing I absolutely cannot stand, is see them do worse than I possibly
could have imaged.  36 wins.  We have to get 36 wins.  Afterall, if I'm
gonna be wrong, it better be because they win too many.  I didn't think
they'd be a chance in hell they'd be worse than 36 wins.  ARRRGH.

Maybe that's the problem with Boston fans as Pitino keeps griping.
They're too damn optimistic, so they get all uptight when pigs don't fly.
If a few more people were a little less optimistic and a little more
encouraging and supportive, these things, according to Pitino would work
out better.  Maybe.  But 36 wins still sucks, though.  Next year I'll have
to predict 26 wins.  If they can't win THAT many.........

Make sense?  I didn't think so either, but at least it was fun venting. :)

-jr

PS.  I'm not saying optimists are worse than pessimists (more like
realists apparently), but I have to admit, I can't stand dealing with
people that just keep smiling as they get wacked over the head again and
again and again, saying "but next time everything will be joyous and
dandy" as they prance around in the tulips....

And yes, I'll be drunk and partying next time the C's win a championship,
whoever gets them there.  And I'll be drunk and pissed after every loss.
I do think they'll kick some Chicago butt tonight though.  Need every last
win to get to 36...