Rebuilding in the new environment

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

Looking more long term, let's assume that the Celtics head on to a
30-something win season and in January, Pitino announces his intention to
resign at the end of the year, and he makes no moves to change the team.
What kind of situation is the new president looking at this offseason?

First of all, he has the existing players. He'll have free agents Bryant
Stith, Chris Carr, Adrian Griffin, Chris Herren, and Mark Blount. If
everyone continues playing the way they do, most likely Stith is the only
guy who has a shot at a new contract. Depending on the direction the
Celtics want to go, he may not be retained if we're going for cap space.
Paul Pierce will be eligible for a contract extension at this point, after
which he'll be subject to base-year compensation hassles, so a decision
will have to be made on him also. McCarty is the only contract expiring in
2002. If the Celtics are interested in getting under the cap, waiting until
2003 may be necessary, when Kenny Anderson, Randy Brown, and Jerome Moiso
come off the cap. After seeing Michael Jordan fail in his attempts to clear
expensive veterans from the cap, I don't think Anderson can be moved for a
shorter-term contract.

At this point, other than new draft picks, we'll have four players on the
cap: Walker, Potapenko, Battie, and Eric Williams (ignoring Pierce's status
for the moment). This is probably around $30M, with another $10M in rookie
contracts. The cap may be high enough to pursue one big free agent. If
Pierce has been extended, I don't think we'll have any cap space. So if you
want to go for a cap-clearing strategy, you probably have to trade Walker
or Pierce.

Here's where the "new environment" comes in. This past offseason was a
pretty big one for free agents because it was the last year under the old
rookie contracts. That is why guys like Duncan, McGrady, Tim Thomas, Austin
Croshere, Ron Mercer, Derek Anderson, and Maurice Taylor were available in
the marketplace. Even with this factor, Chicago was unable to pick up a
quality free agent of the caliber of Walker or Pierce. When it comes to
free agency, Boston is much more like Chicago than Orlando. In the future,
I believe that we're going to see fewer young, high-quality free agents due
to the new rookie contracts which give right of first refusal. The free
agents that do appear will frequently be able to leverage their situation
into a sign-and-trade with a contender (Brian Grant, Eddie Jones) or a
lucrative contract with their existing team (Croshere, Thomas). And a
situation like Boston's, with cold weather, substantial state taxes, and a
losing team, would not appeal to free agents, 16 banners notwithstanding.

So what is a cold weather losing town to do? If a crazy billionaire buys
the team, everything changes of course. Suddenly your team can be 15 deep
with overpaid but solid players, which is enough for the playoffs if not
necessarily a championship. But otherwise, I think that nowadays you have
to build through the draft and trades. That presents a dilemma because the
best way to build through the draft in to stink for a while. Keeping Walker
and Pierce and hiring a decent coach probably prevents us from being bad
enough to draft repeatedly in the top 5. So do you completely blow things
up and pray for good luck in the draft, hoping to get a franchise center?
That's one option.

The other possibility is to build around the current core, with the hope
that a new GM and coach can improve this team. You use the existing players
and the draft picks we have. If you have the opportunity to upgrade from
Walker or Pierce you take it. Maybe you even trade them for solid role
players in the mold of Ratliff or Antonio Davis if you can create a team
with a better identity. The question with this approach is whether a team
built around Walker and Pierce, with little possibility of adding a
dominant player and without the financial resources to field an insanely
deep team (such as the Blazers), has any possibility of ever winning a
championship. 

Alex