BSG's NBA Coinfidential

[Way Of The Ray <wayray@ix.netcom.com>]

http://www.digitalcity.com/boston/sportsguy/main.dci?page=1nba01

NBA CONFIDENTIAL
After five weeks of DSS-watching, SG ranks the NBA teams and posts as
many thoughts as possible on one page (1st of 2 parts)



After one glorious month with DirectTV's NBA package, it's time to offer
reflections, thanks and as many observations as you could possibly pack
into one NBA column. My DSS dish pushed me to the next level as a
basketball fan. Instead of seeing teams 3-4 times a year, I'm seeing
bits and pieces of everyone's games at least once a week, so in terms of
hardcore NBA knowledge, I hold a decisive advantage over just about
everyone else on the planet. I see these teams. I know what's going on.
I could even come up with an All-Afro Team. And at this rate, I'll
probably be single before Valentine's Day.

My five favorite things about a DSS:

1. The Fourth Quarter Frenzy
Usually this happens around 9:15-9:30 during Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, as all the East Coast games head into the fourth quarter at
once. For instance, last night's slate featured NJ-Indy at 7, followed
by Mia-Atl, Bos-Orl, Cha-Cle at 7:30, followed by Chi-Minn and SA-Sac at
8 -- if you're turning the Dish on at 9:15, in the span of about 75
minutes, you can watch Crunch Times of seven different games. That's
invaluable. You see who's playing,which players are stepping up in the
clutch, which players become go-to guys, which players look stoned and
so on. And let's face it, during the regular season, you only need to
watch the fourth quarters anyway.

2. Roto Tips
The main reason I'm in the top 500 overall in SmallWorld.com's fantasy
basketball league? My DSS. I picked up Baron Davis, Steve Nash and Shawn
Marion before their salaries went up because they were getting big
minutes AND getting the ball at crunch-time... stuff you can only figure
out from watching the games. Davis was a perfect example -- sometimes
you just know when a guy's making The Leap (box scores don't tell the
whole story). Same thing with Marion. And Antawn Jamison is the next one
(there's a free tip for you - pick him up).

3. The Late Night Game
A perennial favorite for night owls, especially when the Lakers, Kings
and Clippers all have home games that start at 10:30. Last Wednesday I
watched a splendid double-OT game between the Suns and Grizzlies. The
Suns and Grizzlies! Does it get any better than that? I've even adopted
a favorite late night team - the beleaguered Clippers, who actually
aren't half-bad (I know things are getting chummy with us because I
found myself inadvertently rooting for them a couple times during
Sunday's forgettable Celts-Clips tilt at the Fleece). And nothing beats
flipping back and forth between G-String Divas and a Clips-Warriors game
at 1:30 in the morning.

4. Calvin Murphy
He does the color for Rockets games and treats TV viewers to an
umparalleled broadcasting experience -- incoherent babbling, constant
interruptions of his play-by-by-play partner, random screams and yelps
during play, and unabashed cheering for the Rockets... and yet he's
somehow likable and entertaining at the same time. This guy makes Tommy
Heinsohn look like a potential Emmy winner; he comes across like Willie
Maye crossed with Magic Johnson, with a little of David Alan Grier's Dad
from Boomerang. It's an indescribable experience to watch a Rockets game
with Calvin involved. In a good way.

5. The Go-To Teams
When it comes right down to it, there are only three consistently
entertaining teams in the NBA this season: Sacramento, the Lakers,
Phoenix. Some other teams -- Dallas, Philly, Portland, Indiana and San
Antonio, to name five -- are entertaining when matched up against the
right opponents, but the Kings, Lakers and Suns deliver the goods every
night (more on this next week). That's why I love the DSS so much -- I
don't have to endure those Miami-New York games any more. Give me the
Kings and Suns every day of the week and twice on Sunday, as Lieutenant
Sam Weinberg would say.

So how is the NBA shaping up after five weeks of play? Here's one man's
take, from worst to first (all stats thru Monday's games). And I'm using
last names and nicknames when appropriate, so proceed at your own risk.
And all the levels will be named after U2 songs, just because I've been
listening to the new album in the car for the past two weeks, and lemme
tell you something, it's a beautiful day:

LEVEL I: BAD

29. Chicago (2-15) -- Worst team in the league, bar none. Excruciating
to watch. Elton Brand isn't playing as hard as last season (he's also
getting double-teamed constantly). Mercer's getting a ton of shots (256
in 16 games) and shooting just 40% (will he ever make it?). I don't like
Marcus Fizer at all -- he's a tweener (too small for the 4-spot and too
slow for the 3-spot). Fizer and Brand can't play together. Rookie #1
Jamal Crawford can't get PT over El-Amin and Guyton, which should tell
you something (there's another guy the Celts liked). Brad Miller's been
hurt, which hasn't helped.

(Random questions? What does Jerry Krause have to do to get fired? After
mangling the '00 draft and failing to attract a single marquee free
agent, isn't that enough? And why didn't he move those picks for
Jermaine O'Neal last summer??? And is there a better U2 song than "Bad"?
Nobody can rattle off nouns like Bono.)

28. Atlanta (4-15) -- Another dreadful team. They need to trade Mutombo
for a guard who can handle the ball AND a younger big body. Jason Terry
isn't a point guard but might have potential at shooting guard if they
move Jimmy Jackson. Lorenzen Wright runs the floor well but seems like a
head case. Add DerMarr Johnson to the list of Guys Who Came Out a Year
Early - he's not even close. Alan Henderson would make a nice reserve
for someone but he makes too much money.

(Random thought: New coach Lon Krueger looks like a serial killer. You
should see him. I keep waiting for him to wander on the court and stab
Chris Crawford to death during garbage time to get him off the salary
cap.)

27. Washington (4-14) -- Leonard Hamilton has the Wiz playing hard, at
least in the games I've seen. It's amazing what happened to Juwan --
he's giving 100% but getting booed at home every time he touches the
ball. And they can't trade him! Double ouch. I like Rip Hamilton but
he's too skinny right now - he can't guard 2-guards and he's too frail
to take on small forwards. I'm not sure what the question is, but Jahidi
White isn't the answer. I liked the Ty Nesby trade - he needed a new
team and he makes them more athletic, especially with Richmond out.

(Random thought: If things had escalated during the near-fight between
White and Potapenko last month in Boston, that could have been the NBA
Fight of the Decade. I would have pay-per-viewed that one.)

LEVEL II: LEMON

26. Golden St. (5-13) -- Cowens has them playing hard every night, but
Fortson's injury killed them because they get slaughtered on the boards,
especially down the stretch. Jamison (22.3 ppg, 48% FG) is an
interesting player - he can post up and shoot threes (a la CyberTwan).
On the flip side, he couldn't guard me (a la CyberTwan). Hughes (38%
shooting) looks terrible - you wonder if he's one of those players who
only plays well on crappy teams when he's shooting 25 times a game. Put
a fork in Mookie. Chris Mills is playing 32 minutes a game, which is
about 31 minutes too much (another Pitino signing!). These guys will be
in trouble when Bobby Sura goes down with his inevitable injury. One of
the Western playoff teams should make a run at Erick Dampier - he's
shown a little life this season.

(Random thought: Did the Celtics have concerns about Fortson's foot
before they traded him? Doesn't it seem suspicious that they dumped him
for fifty cents on the dollar and he ended up breaking the same foot
again? Hmmmmm...)

25. New Jersey (6-12)
Lost their last eight and fading fast. You can't rely on a point guard
for all of your scoring - teams are taking Marbury out of the game by
running second defenders at him and forcing him to give up the ball. No
team has worse players at the 2-3 spots than the Nets - Gill, Jackson
and Newman. Kenyon Martin disappears for minutes at a time - something's
missing with him but I'm not sure what it is. His reactions seem a
nano-second slow. Even when Van Horn comes back, this team's in trouble
because of those swing positions. They might be better off starting
Sherm Douglas and moving Marbury to the 2-spot.

(Random thought #1: Here's a possible destination for Potapenko. The
Nets' centers are terrible -- even a mediocre player like V would
represent a mammoth step up for them. Too bad the Nets have nothing to
trade.)

(Random thought #2: Yes, that was wishful thinking.)

24. LA Clips (5-14)
A nice mix of young guys here, led by Odom, one of my favorite players
in the league. Odom handles the ball down the stretch on every
possession; Western teams can't match up with him defensively, with the
exception of LA (Kobe) and Phoenix (the Marion factor). Darius Miles
should have stayed in school - he's a year away. I really like Quentin
Richardson -- physical, explosive, seems pretty competitive (too bad the
C's didn't grab him at #11). Olowokandi is such a stiff that it defies
description - they yank him down the stretch of every game. They really
need a power forward because the Strong/Skinner combo stinks (Miles
would help if he blossoms). Jeff McInnis is surprisingly competent and
Sean Rooks might be the most underrated backup big man in the league
(one of the contenders should pick him up). Hey, did you know this is
the best rebounding team in the league? It's true. Look it up.

(Random thought #1: Considering that the Clips passed up Carter, Bibby,
Pierce, Nowitzki and Jamison, among others, that Olowokandi pick has to
be considered one of the 3-4 worst picks in league history. When he
comes out of games, Alvin Gentry gives him a chewie and tells him to lie
down.)

(Random thought #2: With Paul Westphal gone, Gentry might be the worst
coach in the league. No substitution patterns, no plays, nothing. During
Sunday's Clips-Celts game, Maggette played 2 minutes in the first half,
came in for Q with five minutes left in the third, didn't even play that
well... and he never came out. Mystifying.)

LEVEL III: RUNNING TO STAND STILL

23. Detroit (8-10) -- The Ewing Theory has them in full contention for
the last playoff spot. This might be the only team in the league that
doesn't have a single inside scorer -- none of their bigger players can
post up. Every play down the stretch runs through Stackhouse (28.4 PPG,
a startling 24 shots per game), who keeps them in games by himself. I'm
not sure why they want to trade Jerome Williams when he and Ben Wallace
make a pretty nice rebounding combo; throw in Joe Smith and that's a
decent frontline. Chucky Atkins started off slow but he'll come on.
Interesting team. They could sneak into the playoffs if Stack stays
healthy.

(Random thought: You have to hand it to the Ewing Theory, don't you? Is
there a stronger force in sports? I mean, did you SEE what happened with
the Dolphins this season? Huh? HUH?)

22. Cleveland (10-7) -- They started out fast (9-3) and predictably went
right in the tank. Andre Miller is overrated - he makes a lot of
mistakes and can't make jumpers (teams are laying off him now).
Ilguaskas just isn't the same player anymore, thanks to the foot
injuries; it's almost sad. Gatling and Weatherspoon - two guys who have
been searching for the right team for years - finally found a home here
(Spoon's averaging close to a double-double for the season). Lamond
Murray's been terrible all season - they run plays for him at
crunch-time and he can't get anything done. Hey here's a surprise: Chris
Mihm looks like a potential stiff! They still have a trade to make when
Brevin Knight gets healthy. This is one of those plodding teams that
drags their opponents down to their level (like yesterday's 71-66 win
over Charlotte).Here's a team that should make a run at Glenn Robinson
(for Gatling, Murray and Brevin Knight?)

(Random thought: If this team makes the playoffs, they need to re-align
the conferences next season.)

21. Miami (8-10) -- Ready for a burnout. Jones, Grant, Mason and
Hardaway are all averaging close to 40 minutes a game and Miami has no
bench whatsover. A potential 50-loss team with one more injury.
Hardaway's on his last legs - he can't beat anyone off the dribble
anymore and relies on that falling-back jumper almost exclusively.
Grant's playing harder than anybody in the league -- nice to see someone
pick up a big paycheck and still break a sweat. Jones doesn't do much
for me - I'd rather have Pierce, Allen, Stackhouse, Miller, Iverson and
McGrady in the East. Mason plays 40 minutes a game and barely averages
eight boards, which should tell you which direction his career is headed
in. Put a fork in the Heat.

(Random prediction: Pat Riley sees the writing on the wall and resigns
before the All-Star break, handing the team over to Stan Van Gundy and
citing burnout... which leads to the Battle of the Van Gundys on
February 20th!)

20. Boston (8-10) -- We'll deal with them later this week.

19. Vancouver (6-11) -- They would compete for the 4th spot in the East,
but playing those Western juggernauts every night will eventually drag
them down. Survival of the fittest. Too bad. I love Shareef -- he's a
consistent 20/10 guy every night. Mike Bibby's fine. The Dickerson
injury hurt the cause because it forced them to play Damon Jones at
2-guard down the stretch. Bryant Reeves is the salary cap albatross by
which all other cap albatrosses should be measured. Stromile Swift is
looming... get ready for a Small World frenzy for him in February. He
will eventually become the best player in the 2000 Draft. You heard it
here.

(Random thought: Othella Harrington's on the trading block and could
really help a team like, oh, say, the CELTICS! Would you deal Jerome
Moiso for him? I would. Too bad these other teams have scouts.)

LEVEL IV: MYSTERIOUS WAYS

18. Houston (10-8) -- These guys are setting back basketball 20 years --
all one-on-one stuff, no passing, nothing. Whoever dribbles the ball
over midcourt gets to shoot. Very strange team. Not quite sure how they
have a winning record. Rudy T is submitting his best coaching job ever
-- he tries all kinds of weird things, including three-guard lineups
featuring Stevie Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Moochie "There's comedy,
there's high comedy and then there's my afro" Norris. And some of it
works! If one of the Rockets can take their guy off the dribble, they
keep going to him until the other team adjusts or subs.

As for the players, Hakeem looks done -- it's a race between him and
Ewing for the Robert Parish Memorial "Just Hanging On For a Paycheck"
Trophy. Francis looks like a head case - too many magazine covers for
him this summer. He's just not consistent enough yet. Mobley's the best
sixth man in the league. Mo Taylor seems destined to get moved again -
he doesn't fit in with these guys at all. A Fizer-Taylor trade could
work. I like the fact that the second-best player on this team (Mobley)
comes off the bench - that never happens in the NBA anymore. It's all
right, it's all right... it's ALLLL right... they move, in mysterious
wayyyyys.

(Random thought: Why can't the Celts make a run at Shandon Anderson, an
underrated nitty-gritty guy who's been pining for a new team? Can we
send them some of Walter McCarty's old game tapes from Kentucky?
Please?)

17. Milwaukee (9-7) -- I'm not giving up on them; there's too much
talent here. The biggest problem: they need to trade Glenn Robinson for
a rebounder but haven't been able to move him for equal value. Ray Allen
hasn't looked this good since the hoops scene with Denzel in He Got
Game. Sam Cassell's trying to pout his way into a contract extension.
Tim Thomas is playing like a guy who can't believe he just signed a $60
million extension. No rebounding here -- nobody on this team averages
more than six rebounds per game. That's killing them down the stretch in
games. Can't you see this team dumping George Karl and running off a
ten-game winning streak with a "player's coach" at the helm, a la
Seattle?

(Random prediction: Just to complete the effect, the Bucks hire a hearse
and two caretakers to remove Joel Pryzbilla from the bench after games.)

LEVEL V: I STILL HAVEN'T FOUND WHAT I'M LOOKING FOR

16. Denver (9-7) -- They had a strange resurgence last week - McDyess
and LaFrentz caught fire during a homestand, including a shocking win
over Philly Monday night. Can't see it lasting when many of the key
contributors here are health risks (Lenard, Pack, even LaFrentz). Too
many nuts on this team. They'll self-implode.

(Random question: Granted, he's completely insane, but how come nobody
ever mentions Nick Van Exel in discussions about top NBA point guards?
He's been averaging a 17/9 all season... other than Kidd and Payton,
isn't Van Exel the best PG in the West or am I crazy? Do you realize the
Lakers gave up on him in a three-way deal that eventually netted them
Tyrone Lue and Travis Knight? Yikes.)

15. Toronto (9-8) -- Like Detroit, they're a one-man team, only their
supporting players are a smidgen better. Vince looked awesome before his
knees started aching (27.5ppg, 48% FG). Mark Jackson kills them
defensively. Oakley looks like he's on the way out -- he's shooting just
31% this season and getting outplayed by the other team's 4-spot guy
every night (on the bright side, he leads the league in bitchslaps this
season). Their MVP has been Antonio Davis, who should make the All-Star
team at center this season (along with Theo Ratliff). The
Williamson-Christie trade was a predictable disaster - they needed
another shooter, not another inside player. Lousy bench. Doesn't look
like anyone on this team likes each other.

(Random prediction: Mo Peterson will determine how far they advance next
spring. He's the only player on the roster other than Vince who can make
a jumpshot. And yes, he's yet another player the Celts should have taken
over Moiso.)

14. Seattle (9-10) -- The Nate McMillan move needed to happen because
the players were mailing it in, but will it alter this team's "First
round and out" destiny in April? They can't play Baker and Ewing at the
same time because they're both too slow; Ewing has trouble running with
the giant pitchfork coming out of his back. Payton is enjoying his
finest season offensively; defensively, he's slipped (Marbury torched
him for 41 last month). Rashard Lewis is one of five underrated young
stars in the league right now (along with Stojakovic, Marion, Davis, and
Nowitzki); he's shooting 51% on mostly 15--footers and threes. Baker
needs a new team... badly. They have a bunch of young 2/3-spot guys and
might be better off playing smallball and rotating Ewing and Baker. If
you're looking for a playoff team to fall out of the Top Eight so Dallas
can sneak in, here's the one.

(Random thought: What happened to Vin Baker? And when will VH1 produce a
"Behind the Music" show about him?)

13. Minnesota (10-8) -- The double-whammy of losing Malik Sealy and Joe
Smith was too much for this team; Chauncey Billups helps offensively but
hurts on the other end. They miss Smith's defense. KG doesn't seem to
have the same fire this season -- his stats dropped a little and he's
not thumping his chest and yelping as much. They should move Terrell
Brandon before the other teams in the league realize that has a chronic
ankle-spraining problem (I'd make that deal for Allan Houston in a
heartbeat). Did you know that Todd Day -- the Human Ebola Virus -- is
involved for 10 minutes a night off the bench? It's true. KG just
doesn't have much to work with here. This could turn into a "Barkley in
Philly during the late-80's/early-90's" thing.

(Random thought: As if Kevin McHale doesn't have enough things keeping
him awake right now, the fact that he passed up Shawn Marion to take
Wally Z in the '99 Draft must drive him crazy. A colossal error in
judgement, right up there with U2's "Pop" album.)

As for the Top Twelve teams in the league, we'll tackle them next
week...