NBATalk's analysis of the 4-team trade involving Fortson

[CeltsSteve@aol.com]

Below is a copy of an e-mail which I sent to NBATalk.com based upon their 
"analysis" of the trade from Boston's perspective. As you'll note, the top 
portion of the e-mail is a cut-n-paste of said analysis. Below that is my 
response:


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Subj:   Analysis of the 4-Team trade
Date:   08/15/2000 8:42:52 AM Pacific Daylight Time
From:   CeltsSteve@aol.com
To: comments@sportstalk.com


<< Why it works for BOSTON: 

It doesn't. You can almost see the skid marks. The crash isn't far away. 
Beware of flying parts. How is it that three stiffs were moved in this trade, 
Boston traded one of them and picked up two more? Robert Pack (10.3 ppg/ 5.2 
apg) is a legit NBA guard when he can actually find his way to the court. 
He's missed 148 games in the last 3 years as a Maverick. John Williams is in 
his 14th year and played in only 25 games last season averaging 1.2 ppg. And 
how good do you think that Jazz pick is going to be? Pitino may argue that 
it's better than nothing since Fortson was a free agent and Boston wasn't 
going to pay him what he wanted. And considering that he dealt Fortson for 
Alvin Williams not too long ago, I guess he'd be right. But isn't that kinda 
sad that the once-proud Celtics would consider this a victory. Maybe it was 
the extra $3 million Cuban threw in.>>


Dear NBATalk,

I'm disappointed with your short-sided analysis from the C's perspective. I 
think in your haste to get something put up on your Web site, you simply 
viewed the trade short-term and failed to view the trade in the total context 
of its' future impact a year from now. I'll explain what I mean by that in 
more detail but I want to also state upfront that this is a make or break 
year for Pitino. Either the C's make the playoffs or he needs to go. That 
said, I think this was a good, not a great but a good trade, from Boston's 
perspective.

Why?

Boston has now managed to turn Ron Mercer into a Top 5 protected pick next 
year from Denver, Utah's #1 next year, Eric Williams, and $6 million in cash 
-  $3 million from Denver and $3 million from Dallas. 

Pack's and Hot Rod's contracts cancel out Barros' and Fortson's. Actually, I 
think they exceed Barros' and Fortson's slightly for the time being but that 
is irrelevant.  The important point is the C's did not take on any additional 
contracts unless the rumored late inclusion of Bruno Sundov comes to fruition 
and I certainly hope that he's not included. 

Hot Rod is a fossil. He's toast. Stick a fork in him 'cause he's done. He's 
also not costing the C's a dime. In fact, Mark Cuban paid his entire salary 
this season and a portion of Robert Pack's just so the C's would take them 
off the Mavs' books with the inclusion of the $3 million in cash. But if you 
think about it, $6 million is what Barros and "the piano mover" AKA Pervis 
made last year combined for exactly the same role as what Pack and Hot Rod 
will be asked to be - as veteran, locker room influences. Both Hot Rod and 
Pack are good guys in that regard even if they don't play a lick. And guess 
what? The combined salaries this year of both Pack and Hot Rod are also right 
at $6 million.

Two vets from last year - Pervis and Dana - are gone. Both were 
non-contributors. Two new vets replaced them. One will likely be a 
non-contributor (Williams) and for accepting him in the trade, Mark Cuban 
agreed to pay his entire salary and then some for the C's to take him off the 
Mavs' books. The other guy (Pack) will be a contributor if healthy. He can 
play D much better than
Barros and is much better suited for Pitino's second unit to press. But 
assuming  that he remains injured and unable to contribute, then even under a 
worst case scenario he becomes a non-contributor just like Dana was a 
non-contributor.

Coupled with the jump in the cap from $35 or so million this year to the $43 
million range next July 1st and the C's should be somewhere around the $40 
million mark come assuming that Pack, Hot Rod, and Greg Minor are all 
renounced at that time. Keep in mind that $40 million or so is also before 
signing any players they might draft so that is an unknown variable at this 
point.

Once Walker's BYC status is removed, he might be the easiest current player 
with trade value to be moved (other than Pierce and the C's in a stand alone 
deal wouldn't get equal value in return given Pierce's low cap figure). If 
such a trade involving Walker yielded a player and a draft choice or just 
future draft pick(s), the opportunity exists to shed additional cap $$$. All 
I'm saying is that with simply one creative salary dump either before the 
February trade deadline or in the days leading up to the draft next June,  
the C's could easily drop back down in the mid-$30 million range once Minor, 
Pack, and Hot Rod are off the books and whoever that other player contract 
who might wind up being moved ends up being. 

That would allow the C's  to be a player in the free agent market next summer 
which currently includes Chris Webber, Michael Finley, Mutombo, David 
Robinson, Mashburn, Jim Jackson, Joe Smith, Anthony Mason, Eddie Robinson, 
Stojakovic, Ike Austin, Cedric Ceballos, Gary Trent, Shawn Bradley, Ho Grant, 
Corliss Williamson, Jelani McCoy, Sam Mitchell, Michael "the Animal" Smith, 
Otis Thorpe, John Amaechi, Kendall Gill, Chris Gatling,  Ewing, Laettner, 
Mark Strickland, Matt Bullard, and Mark Bryant among others.

The C's also end up with another first round pick next summer. Not that the 
Utah pick is a high draft choice, mind you. But it would still be a first 
rounder which means a locked in salary for a very small salary slot at rookie 
scale for a minimum of three years; four years if the C's exercise their 
option. With that pick they could take a flyer on a PG to groom as Anderson's 
successor as Anderson would only have two years remaining on his deal at that 
point in time.

There is a plethora of big men coming out in next year's draft.  The C's 
could  offer the Denver pick (asuming it doesn't end up in the Top 5 and they 
can thus exercise their option on it in June, 2001) and offer either a player 
(Walker?) or another first rounder to move up to make a run at Eddie Curry 
and still have a late first rounder at their discretion to draft a PG to take 
Pack's roster spot at a fraction of the salary hit.

One final thought. Pitino gets bashed in the media for making lousy deals. 
But the fact is he fleeced Jerry West in the Travis Knight for Tony Battie 
deal. In essence, he signed away a guy from the Lakers as a free agent and 
gave up absolutely nothing in the way of a draft pick or a player to obtain 
him in the first place and ended up only paying Knight for one year at $1.7 
million in Year 1 of a long term deal (which was less than the NBA average 
salary).  He then traded Knight back to the team he signed him away from for 
a # 5 lottery pick that came out of college early. In essence, Pitino 
manufactured a #5 lottery pick out of thin air.

He also traded Mercer (a # 6 overall pick) to Denver for Fortson, a Top 5 
protected #1 pick from Denver this year (by the way, Top 3 protected next 
year, Top 1 protected the year after, and unprotected in the final year), 
Eric Williams, and $3 million in cash. He now has traded Fortson for another 
#1 from the Jazz next year and another $3 million in cash. Thus, the net 
result of Mercer is 2 - #1 picks, $6 million in cash, and Eric Williams. Is 
there any doubt that Denver will be hard pressed to make the playoffs this 
season which automatically guarantees that the pick Denver traded to the C's 
is a lottery pick?

Dan Issel, after giving up next year's #1, Eric Williams, Danny Fortson, and 
$3 million in cash to acquire Mercer then traded him to Orlando for Tariq 
Abdul-Wahad and in turn for the privilege of giving TA-W a 7-year, $43.3 
million contract. Orlando ended up with zilch for Mercer. If RP is so bad as 
a GM, what does that make Dan Issel of Denver and John Gabriel of Orlando in 
the context of the Mercer/Fortson/Tariq-Abdul-Wahad saga?? 

Viewed within the context of what I have stated above, this 4-team trade is a 
good, not a great, but a good trade from the C's vantage point; especially 
when you consider Fortson could have walked out the door for the $2.25 
million exception and they would have ended up with absolutely nothing for 
him. He also could have come back to haunt the C's if he went to another 
Eastern Conference team, particularly a team like the Knicks who is also in 
their divison. Instead, he ends up in Golden State.

I'd challenge you to post this response in it's entirety on your site and 
would invite any and all responses it might bring from not only you but your 
readers as well.

Regards,

CeltsSteve@aol.com

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As yet, I haven't received any reponse from NBATalk.com but I'll let y'all 
know if and when I do.


 - Steve