Looking to the offseason

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

It's time to look ahead to the changes ahead for the Celtics this offseason.

1. I doubt that Pitino is leaving this year, although he has left the door
open for it when talking to reporters. It would be like selling your stock
when it's at rock-bottom. He doesn't have enough of a reason to leave just
yet. I think he's probably hoping to change his approach and finally go
for more of a veteran team.

2. In hindsight, the Celtics didn't add talent over the last offseason,
which is one of the reasons they didn't really improve. They lost Mercer
and added Fortson, Griffin, and Cheaney. Fortson didn't fit (whether you
want to blame that on Pitino the GM or Pitino the coach is your choice).
Griffin burned out after a promising start. Cheaney ended up filling the
Bruce Bowen role, with a bit more offensive ability. I forgot about
Eric Williams, who seems to have displaced Walter McCarty. 

3. An inventory of our assets: Besides the players under contract after
this season, we have our 2000 draft pick (from #7-#11 barring good luck
in the lottery), our 2001 pick, Denver's 2001 protected pick, the $2M 
exception (which can be used every year - Cheaney's contract does not
"use this up"), and Danny Fortson as a potential sign-and-trade.

4. I don't see the $2M exception bringing us much of an impact player
like Rodney Rogers in Pheonix has been. Usually the best $2M players
seem to end up going to winning teams (like Houston was supposed to
be for Shandon Anderson) or at least warm weather. Probably, if we use
it, it will be to deepen the bench. A credible backup to Kenny Anderson,
with defensive ability, would be great. Someone mentioned Chris Herren
but unfortunately, the article that was quoted said that Denver had
a team option on a second year. 

5. I think that Fortson either gets the $2M exception from some other
team, or a salary that slightly exceeds that from us, either to keep
or as a sign-and-trade - 3 years, $8-9M. I really don't see us keeping
him though. Ellison and Overton are gone. Griffin will be retained with
the team option.

6. I don't know anything about college players so I can't comment too
much about the draft. I think that the Celtics, if they keep this pick,
will use it to boost their athleticism. Pitino has mentioned that the
players he targeted in the last two drafts were Keon Clark (if Nowitzki
didn't come through) and Shawn Marion (if we hadn't traded our pick).

7. I strongly expect us to trade at least one of our three picks in
the next two drafts to improve the team for the coming season. The picks
probably would be valued in this order: Most valuable is this year's
pick. Second is Denver's pick. I could see us keeping this year's pick
and trading Denver's pick for a veteran (along with additional contracts
to a team going into rebuilding) which would probably maximize the
immediate talent infusion. I'm in favor of this type of move because
I don't think these picks are going to be so high that they are going
to be super-impact players. I'd rather see us use at least one of them
to get more talent now, in the same way that Toronto and Philadelphia
did.

8. The biggest question is whether Walker or Pierce gets traded, most
likely to get a quality veteran 4 or 5. I don't think this will happen,
though I can imagine Walker going to Indiana for a package including
Dale Davis. Besides those two, I think that Potapenko is the only player
who has trade value, but moving him doesn't make sense because we aren't
going to get a better center in return.

9. Some potential impact free agents that could help this team. Manyof
these names would probably not come for the $2M exception so a
sign-and-trade would be necessary, with us giving up draft picks along
with salaries to make it work. I've left out those free agents that I
don't think we have any chance of getting.

  Kurt Thomas - a sign and trade would be necessary because NY never loses
    anyone from inability to pay. From what I've seen he's a solid defender
    that can hit the open midrange jumper.

  Bo Outlaw and Ben Wallace - one of these guys might be available if
    Orlando hits the jackpot in free agency and needs to clear cap space.
    Energy, shotblocking, rebounding, athleticism. Unfortunately Orlando
    has a history of under the table agreements with players, so they might
    be able to retain them with small one-year contracts and reward them 
    down the road.

  Mark Jackson - Indiana may be heading in a totally different direction
    this year. I could see them rebuilding by doing sign-and-trades with
    their veterans for one-year contracts and draft picks. Jackson for
    Dana Barros and a first-round pick? Given his age (35) maybe the pick
    could be lottery-protected, or maybe we get him for even less, even
    the $2M exception, if he loves Pitino as much as he says. Don't know
    if he'd settle for that for his last contract though.

  Derek Anderson - The Clippers hate free agents (because they are always
    on the way out) and love rookie contracts because the player is 
    practically a captive. Again a sign-and-trade where we give up a 
    first-round pick could do it. Whether we have a shot depends on
    whether the cap room on teams like Chicago and Orlando dries up before
    their wish list gets to Derek Anderson. I don't know how much interest
    there will be from these teams in Anderson because he's a case of good
    stats on a terrible team, plus he's has injury problems. 

  Rashard Lewis - I think the Sonics are restricted to offering the early
    Bird exception, which is still more than the $2M exception. He has
    been impressive of late and has been getting more playing time. 
    Perhaps he would leave for a starting role with the Celtics? I
    remember his agent was making some noise about having him play behind
    Ruben Patterson. I imagine we would be interested in either of these
    guys, and that Lewis would get quite a few offers at the $2M level.
    Can anyone who watches this guy on a regular basis comment? 

10. To sum up, even without a major trade, I could see us acquiring three
contributors, through the draft, a sign-and-trade using one of our future
draft picks, and the $2M exception. Beyond that a sign-and-trade with
Fortson might also be possible. The first casualty from the rotation would
be McCarty, who's already playing sporadically. Barros, though his shooting
has come around, would be a prime prospect to be traded to a rebuilding
team because his contract expires in 2001 and he still has useful skills
on the right team.

To get a high quality veteran is his prime would take either Walker or
Pierce though. The most likely suspects in my mind are still Walker
for a package of Dale Davis and others, or some sort of trade involving
the Miami duo of P.J. Brown and Mashburn, if Miami makes another
early exit from the playoffs. For those who cringe at the mention of
Mashburn again, his stats seem to indicate that he's having quite a 
nice year, maybe the best of his career, and he's only 28. But still,
I don't like these trades because, though they might improve the team
over the next few years, they don't give us potential "star quality",
and that is what is needed for a championship caliber team. However 
Philadelphia (with Van Horn and Hughes) and Toronto (Camby and numerous
draft picks) have traded away potential stars and draft picks to improve
their team's short-term fortunes, and I could see how that could be very
tempting for Pitino.

Walker, though frustratingly inconsistent, has shown flashes of dominating
star quality. Even if he changed nothing except his mental approach to
the game, using his passing and ballhandling to empower his teammates
every game, he should be untradable. Yet he has so much more potential,
if he's willing to put in the effort to become a true superstar. If he
develops his body to its peak, and adds a mid-range jump shot... I hope
that Pitino was serious that he would not be traded while Pitino was in
charge, because I would rather see another coach try to get through to
him than have him be traded because Pitino couldn't do it.

Sometimes I am impatient with Pierce myself, and I forget that he is only
in his first full season. He has improved since his last year, in
particular getting to the free throw line with the upfake and lean under.
He averaged 4.1 trips to the line in his first season, 6.3 this season.
In fact, he's almost as cheap as Reggie Miller with this move, though
not as irritating because he doesn't flail as wildly and look so aggrieved.
And he's second in the league in steals, although maybe he gambles a bit
too much at the expense of the team defense.

Unfortunately, two quality young players does not make you into a very good 
team, unless you have true superstars or a dominating inside presence. 
Just in the weak Eastern Conference, look at the talent level on various
teams that are not winning. New Jersey has the best point guard in the East
in Marbury as well as Van Horn, Kittles, Gill. Milwaukee has three All-Star
caliber starters and a professional coach with a solid track record and
will probably miss the playoffs. 

Still, we are not that far away. I'm hoping to stay with the Walker and
Pierce core and maybe get lucky in the draft (as we did with Pierce) as
well as add through a sign-and-trade. A solid starter-quality athlete 
at swingman and a solid defense/passing point guard would be realistic
and could push this team into the playoffs. I doubt that we can really
manage a good starter-quality shotblocker but a defensive point guard 
would help our miserable defense. A team that is defensively weak at
point guard and at the interior positions is going to be terrible, and
that's what we are. Right now a point guard is probably more realistic
than a shotblocker.

Alex