From OnHoops

[peter delevett <pdelevett@amcity.com>]

This was written by a guy named Thomas Murphy, who makes some very good points
about the rebounding differential with and without Vitaly:


                          "An early review of the Potapenko acquisition from a
Celtic perspective. Having watched a bit of Potapenko, I'm pretty high on his
potential as a team asset. I'll tell you, however, I don't think his
contribution to the team will be revealed by his individual numbers. In that
and many other respects he strikes me as having the potential (*potential*,
mind you) to be a Wes Unseld type player - in other words, an unselfish, at
times underappreciated, brick sh-thouse who anchors the middle.

                          I expect that this season Potapenko will continue to
average 9 ppg and 6 rpg but that these numbers are a misleading indicator of
his value to the team. VP's got a nice offensive game - a surprising passing
touch, a 15 foot shot, and enough agility and mobility to scoot by opposing
centers when need be. Perhaps most importantly, he has confidence in his
ability to score. But his points will be limited by the shots he'll get - with
Walker, Mercer and Pierce there won't be many extra to go around. In Indy VP
had 9 pts but only 4 shot attempts; compare that to the 38 shot attempts
between Walker and Mercer. As for rebounds, again the individual numbers won't
tell the whole story. The rap on VP is that he has never put up the rebounding
#s that a guy his size should. However, if you watch him play I think you'll
understand why. I'm not sure who schooled him early on, but the guy is
(surprisingly) rock-solid on the fundamentals. He's always boxing out and if
he's not that's because he helped out on D. But if you're boxing out, that
doesn't leave you in the best position to get the rebound unless your
*teammates* box out too. Otherwise one of your teammates (or his man) will
leap to the ball first.

                          VP creates something that the Cs didn't have on the
defensive boards for some years - rebounding space. Remember seeing the Celts
crammed under their own boards during the first three games on the just
completed five game road trip? It was ugly. They could only get a rebound if
they out-leapt someone else. With VP they at least don't have to out-leap the
opposing center - or any other wingmen who might try and sneak to the boards
on Vitaly's side.

                          The team numbers don't lie: the first three games of
their recent trip the Cs were outrebounded by 19 (Toronto), 5 (Charlotte!?
without DC no less!?!), and 23 (Atlanta - 10 offensive for Mutombo alone!) for
an average of 16 per game - OUCH! The last two games of the trip, with VP
playing limited minutes (21 and 28) the Cs managed to turn it around and
outrebounded the opposition, by 11 (Detroit) and 1 (Indiana). Should VP get
all the credit? Let's not get silly. But Pitino is not wrong to conclude that
Vitaly's presence did have more than a little something to do with the
rebounding turnaround. The bulk of the opposition's rebounds those last two
games were from the PF spot: Detroit's Loy Vaught and Jerome Williams (17
combined) and Indiana's Dale and Antonio Davis (17 combined). If Walker ever
started boxing out the Cs could *really* start to surprise people!

                          On defense Vitaly has both the size and dexterity to
cover his man one-on-one. He seems to be a smart defender, not overplaying and
drawing stupid fouls (a la Mourning), confident that his sheer bulk alone is
enough to bother the opponent's shot if he can push his opposite number out
away from the hoop. VP's ability to play man-to-man is critical for the entire
defense, as it negates the need to double-down and rotate the small men onto
bigger men. VP also seems to have good help instincts but will never be a
shot-blocker. Some might make too much of Smits' 28 points in Indiana, but
Smits is a prime-time scorer - you can make him take tough shots and he still
may hit them. And Smits' 4th quarter heroics were jumped-started by center
Eric Riley's forgettable five-fouls-in-five-minutes performance. What really
hurt the Cs was Dale Davis going 5-5 in the first quarter.

                          VP is mobile for his size but hardly ideal for the
press. Since Boston's first unit now has three guys unsuited to the press
(Pitino has included Walker and Anderson in that category) it looks like
pressing will be mostly limited to the "bomb squad" off the bench. Given the
fact that since Jordan it seems virtually impossible to commit a travel in the
NBA, that may be all to the good.

                          In assessing VP's chump potential, the only danger I
foresee may spring from frustration leading to a lack of confidence. VP's used
to a well-disciplined defense-first team from his days in Cleveland. If he
finds he's the only one laying his body on the line AND he continues to not
get any shots we could potentially see him lose his confidence, a development
that could undermine his whole game since his value lies in his willingness to
do the "dirty work". I don't see this as a likely possibility, but he is young
(24) and there are some big egos on the Celts.

                          As for the draft, Pitino is right in saying that
this team doesn't need to get any younger - but a *good* young player is
always a valuable commodity. Thank goodness Pitino didn't pull such a trade
last year! The impression I get from Pitino lately, particularly his continued
talk about the "need to get older", is that he considers the last 30 games of
this season as a time for evaluation. This boils down to two questions: (1) is
Paul Pierce for real? (2) will Antoine  Walker "mature"? (i.e., begin to play
defense, box out, and grow a brain on offense). The betting is "yes" on the
former and "no" on the latter, in which case Walker and Greg Minor for Brian
Grant and Walt Williams starts to look more like an off-season possibility."

I don't know about that last point ... I wouldn't make that trade on a dare.