How the lottery works

[jmc@ptc.com]

"Odegaard, Greg M." <GMOdegaa@rmc.com> said:
> Thanks for this outstanding clarification on the lottery details.  Of course
...

> From: Mike Dynon [mailto:mdynon@ix.netcom.com]
> > Ryan Falcone wrote:
> > > Oh, and we also potentially
> > > sacrificed what could be the #4 pick in the 1999 draft?
> > > 
> > 
> > For that to happen, Boston would have to finish 4th worst among all
> > teams. The lottery only decides the top 3 spots. If you don't get one of
> > those, you revert to your original position. That's why
> > "lottery-protected" covers only spots 1, 2 and 3. Right now, there are
> > eight teams below the Celts in the standings. (Not much consolation,
> > though, I admit.)

Unfortunately, this isn't quite true, unless they've just changed the
lottery rules and I hadn't heard about it, although the point Mike 
made is true:  the likelihood of the Celtics getting the #4 pick is
extremely low.

Boston can get the #4 pick in the following ways:
   They finish worst, and don't get one of the 3 lottery picks
OR
   They finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th worst, don't get one of the 3 lottery 
      picks, and all the teams worse than them do get lottery picks. 

Most likely, if Boston doesn't make the playoffs, they'll just miss them, 
so they'll be 11th worst or 12th worst or 13th worst, in which case they'll 
either win a top 3 lottery pick and keep their draft choice, or they'll 
have an 11th/12th/13th pick which will go to Cleveland, unless Cleveland 
decides to gamble on a future year.  So as Mike pointed out, it's highly 
unlikely that the Celtics will be losing a top 6 or 7 draft pick. 

Jon Mc