I don't think there will be a big trade

[Josh Ozersky <josh_ozersky@yahoo.com>]

I just don't think there's value out there.  If we put together some
good wins Rick will forget about it.  I mean, the team really isn't in
shape; and Popeye has been completely useless, he who was brought in
purely for rebounding and defense.  Here's a good analysis from
OnHoops.com:

Brother, Can You Spare a Post Presence? 
<Picture>February 25, 1999, Thomas Murphy.



It has long been clear for observers of the game that Rick Pitino's
attempts to revive the glory of the Boston Celtics will continue to
founder until he is able to procure a PHYSICAL post presence to anchor
the fast-breaking frenetic style Coach P prefers to play. The news
flash is that now - perhaps - Pitino is finally willing to seriously
address this crippling deficiency. After a man-handling in Portland
last Friday Pitino acknowledged that he'd either have to move Antoine
Walker to small forward or part with an "asset" in order to get bigger
and more physical. An asset is Pitino-speak for one of his four main
cogs: Walker, SF Paul Pierce, SG Ron Mercer, or even PG Kenny Anderson.

Let's begin by examining Pitino's two stated options.

Option One: moving Walker to the 3-spot. This option, however, is no
longer simply a question of asking Walter McCarty to come off the
bench. Paul Pierce's play has not only placed him in the forefront of
Rookie-of-the-Year speculation (along with PG Jason Williams of the
revamped Sacramento Kings), it has also earned him accolades as the
most consistent and valuable Celtic so far in this abbreviated season.
Pierce is 17th in the league at 20 ppg (Walker - 20.1 ppg), 20th in
the league in blocks per game at 1.63, 13th in the league in three
point shooting at 44%, and first in the league in steal per game at
2.75. In addition to the impressive stats, Pierce has been THE key
factor in the three Boston wins this season, coming up big in crunch
time again and again. Moving Walker to the 3-spot would in fact
deprive the Celtics of their most valuable contributor - Pierce.

Option Two: moving an "asset" (Walker, Pierce, Mercer, or Anderson).
The first question to ask is "which asset?" Of these four players,
Mercer and Anderson would be the most difficult to replace since the
Cs are actually quite thin in the backcourt. Mercer's brief absence
earlier this season was a good demonstration of his worth; likewise,
anyone who remembers the team under the direction of Chauncey Billups
should appreciate Anderson's value. Both Walker and Pierce seem best
suited to play the small-forward position.

In trying to decide whether to "shop" Walker or Pierce some factors
other than early season stats need to be taken into account. First of
all, although I think most would expect Walker to continue to improve
with additional experience, having seen him play day-in and day-out
over the past two years it is safe to say that there are no further
surprises in his game. Walker, an all-star last year who recently
signed a six year $71 million extension, may well be at the peak of
his (considerable) market value. Pierce on the other hand may be just
beginning to scratch the surface at his ultimate value. Secondly,
Pierce's intelligence, consistency, ball-handling and shot-selection
already seem a better fit for Pitino's system. It is no secret that
Walker is not a fan of the Pitino press. Walker is also a major
butterfingers (led the league in TO's last year), which can be
frustrating when a pressing team has to work as hard as the Celtics do
for each and every possession. Finally, wiht regard to attitude,
Pierce seems to be far ahead of Walker in terms of maturity. Walker's
immaturity is evident both in his shot selection and in his
hard-earned reputation as one of the most widely disliked players
among referees and league opponents. NBA hoops is hard enough without
providing the zebras and the opposition any extra incentive for
sticking it to your team.

Resolved: if the Celts are to part with an asset it should be Walker
since he represents the best combination of high market value and
replaceability.

Why would a team want to trade for Antoine Walker? First off, no one
can question Walker's heart and desire to win, which are best
exemplified by his tenacity as a rebounder, where he often out-hustles
much larger opponents. Secondly, Walker's scoring ability is
explosive! He's not the poster-boy for the NBA '99 computer game for
nothing! Like Scottie Pippen however, Walker's streakiness renders him
unreliable as a go-to guy. These facts indicate that Walker (like
Pippen) would be a good fit on a team with another dominant
personality, one who would assume the role of go-to guy in the closing
moments of a game. Fifteen years of 20 and 10 is a pretty good
incentive to deal for a complementary player at the 3-spot.

Who could the Celts get for Walker? First of all, the Cs should not
move Walker for anything less than a bone fide big-man who can play
the center-spot: power forwards need not apply. Center is the Celtics
Achilles' heel. If center can be upgraded then folks currently on the
roster (Popeye Jones, Tony Battie, Andrew DeClercq) (CN: hey, you
forgot to mention Dwayne Schintzius!) should be able to hold their own
at power forward. Secondly, whenever trading for a big man one must
realize that whatever trade can be worked will always seem on the
surface like a steal for the other side, since one has to give up
talent in order to get size. That having been said, what teams can
afford to part with a center in exchange for Walker? Four teams come
to mind: the L. A. Lakers, L. A. Clippers, San Antonio Spurs, and
Cleveland Cavaliers.

L. A. Lakers: West has been trying to move Elden Campbell ever since
he signed Shaq. Such a trade would probably look something like this:
Walker, Dana Barros and Greg Minor (to balance the cap) for Elden
Campbell and, yes, Eddie Jones. Walker and Minor for Campbell alone
would be giving too much away; Jones could be kept to back up Peirce
and Mercer (something I doubt he would relish) or sent elsewhere.
Overall, I'd have to say the chances for this trade resemble the
Chance brothers: slim, fat and none. Walker would not solve the Lakers
needs at power forward and Kobe is settling in so nicely at the
three-spot. Would West really want to add another ego who can't make
his free throws? The Lakers have a much better deal on tap with
Charlotte (the same tandem for SF Glen Rice, PG B. J. Armstrong and PF
J. R. Reid). And none of this even touches on the enthusiasm Campbell
would bring to Pitino's press.

L. A. Clippers: They've got Michael Olowokandi and Lorenzen Wright in
addition to a bevy of power forwards, the best of which appears to be
Maurice Taylor. Wright doesn't have the talent to make a swap for
Walker feasible, but would the hapless Clips be willing to part with
the kandi man? Never say never with this club, but I'd be hard pressed
to believe they would give up on their number one pick even if he
wasn't demonstrating such amazing growth and potential - it just makes
for bad pr! Label this one a leprechaun's pipe-dream.

San Antonio Spurs: Between Tim Duncan, David Robinson and Will Purdue
the Spurs are blessed with three bone fide big-men. Purdue for Walker
would be daylight robbery as would be Walker for Duncan, so nix those
two options. That leaves Walker (and half the Celtics to make up the
cap space?) for Robinson. From the Cs perspective Robinson's getting
old and appears not to be in the best of health; from the Spurs
perspective David still brings so much to team, especially
defensively, that Walker would not be able to duplicate and Walker
would do nothing to address the true need at SG. This one's a no-go as
well.

Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs have two big slabs in the middle:
Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Vitaly Potapenko. Make that "had" - Ilgauskas
is out for the year with a broken left foot. And yet, an opportunity
for a trade may still exist. There is some history here, as the Cavs
were willing to part with Potapenko in exchange for Paul Pierce as
part of a four-team trade involving Sprewell. A straight-up trade -
Walker for Potapenko - would clearly not be equitable. However, the
addition of Pitino's self-proclaimed "favorite player" - 6-5 Derek
Anderson - might be enough to bring the deal off (Boston may need to
throw in some excess baggage - either PG Marlon Garnett, C Eric Riley
or C Dwayne Schintzius - to balance the cap space). From Cleveland's
perspective, this could be the perfect time to address their hole at
the 3-spot and take advantage of Boston's trade needs since this year
is already to some degree a wash (insofar as Ilgauskas is lost). Come
next year Cleveland would have one of the most potent and beefiest
frontcourts in the league with the 7-3 Ilgauskas, the 6-10 Kemp and
6-9 Walker. The bench will be thin but its importance is diminished by
the turtle-pace played by the Cavs. From Boston's perspective, at 6-10
285 Potapenko finally gives them the physical presence at the 5-spot
that would allow Popeye, Battie and Declercq to play the 4-spot and
enable the Celts to play straight up D in the post. The active Derek
Anderson, in addition to giving Pitino another player experienced in
his system and a reliable reserve at shooting guard, has the
ball-handling skills to fill in at the point which would have the
benefit of freeing Dana Barros to play off-guard on offense and stick
to what he does best - drilling 3-point shots. Boston's post defense,
rebounding and bench would all benefit, which should better enable
them to run the break and the press.

This last option strikes me as Boston's best bet if they decide to
address their post deficiency by moving an "asset." Despite the
advantages for both teams, however, a trade within a conference is
always a touchy thing - remember the Gugliotta to L.A. fiasco? For
this reason, and the feeling I get that Pitino would have a hard time
parting with "one of his own," I'd have to estimate this trade's
likelihood as poor. In other words, Boston fans, unless Pitino can
consistently run teams into the ground like yesterday against Orlando,
prepare for more poundings on the backboards and a very long
abbreviated season.




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