Realistically, it's going to be really tough to make the playoffs.

["Christopher J. Littlefield" <cjlitt@erols.com>]

Hi, folks, 

	I've been an observer for a few months, but with the season on, I
thought I'd get in
my $0.02 as to why I'm psyched about the season and the Celtics, yet
realistic at how slim their chances are of getting
into the playoffs this year.  Additionally, I think that Pitino will
make a trade right off the bat if he can't sign anyone legit, almost a
foregone conclusion since the Celts' cap room went from $6 mil to less
than $2.

Things I'm psyched about: 

We'll probably keep Walker, and we have Pierce for a longer time.  It
looks like there's a realistic chance of being able to
keep this team together, should the powers that be so choose.  

The C's should be able to have a more potent offense.  With the
additions of Anderson (who essentially didn't play last year) and
Pierce, the C's firepower and flexibility just increased dramatically. 
Personally, substituting the rook and Kenny into the starting lineup for
Barros and Minor is very appealing to me.  With Anderson, Mercer, Pierce
and Walker, the C's could get 70 ppg out of 4 starters without a lot of
trouble.  With Anderson running the show and Pierce running the wings, I
expect much better shot selection.  They also should be more fun to
watch.

Unfortunately, they'll remain essentially a perimeter team with Walker
the only inside option.  And unless they can find a way to plug up the
middle (Popeye Jones is not the answer, even at the 4) They will also
give up too many layups.  Andrew "The Velvet Hammer" Declerq can only do
so much.  


Pitino knows all of this.  He knows that unless he acquires some size,
he's not going to be able to compete, particularly within his own
conference, which is littered with teams that are just much more
physical than his scrappy Celtics.  Looking just at the East (ie the
playoffs), the following teams are without argument in better shape than
the C's if they stay healthy.  
Indiana
Miami
Cleveland
New Jersey
Orlando (almost guaranteed to sign Austin)
Atlanta

Notice I haven't even included New York, Washington, Detroit, Charlotte,
or Milwaukee?

I'm guessing on Atlanta and Orlando.  With their people healthy and the
coaching they have, it would be hard for either team to go awry.  

I don't consider the top 5 spots negotiable in the least.  Which leaves
the Celtics in a dogfight with 7 other teams that have a legitimate shot
at the 3 remaining playoff spots.  

I'm not saying the C's aren't improved.  I'm juiced.  I just don't think
anyone should get their hopes up unless we actually do get a center
without giving up any of our current assets.  


My trade prediction?  

Pierce and Mercer will not play together as Celtics.  One of them, plus
whatever else is needed to get the job done, for example Barros and/or
Knight, and maybe next year's pick, will go to a team that can provide
the Celtics with a legitimate big man.  My bet is that Pierce, Barros,
and next year's pick will go to the Clippers for Kandi and Brian
Skinner.

Why do the Celtics do this move?  Duh.  Pierce and Mercer are
interchangeable commodities.  Pierce is too small to play 3 night-in,
night-out. He'd get mauled.  It's a waste of resources to have two 2's
like that.  Getting Kandi puts Walker at the 3, where most pundits
(though not me, I'll have you know) think he is better suited, places
Popeye Jones at the 4, and gives the Celtics the size they desperately
need to compete, much less go anywhere, in the playoffs.  

Okay, now why would the Clips do this?  Well, first and foremost,
they're the Clippers.  Secondly, they have no backcourt.  They have a
huge frontcourt with which they've had no success.  Darrick Martin and
Eric Piatkowski are not the answer.  Barros is still not that far
removed from an All-Star season, is a veteran influence, and played
progressively better once thrust into the starting role last season.
Mercer or Pierce (I say Pierce because he's from LA and could be
convinced to stay with the Clips...maybe?) are potential All-Stars. 
Plus Kandi's in Italy, maybe through the end of the year.  Can the Clips
afford to wait?  Are they disenchanted with him that they have to? 

What the Celts are left with:  

Kandi
Popeye
Walker
Mercer
Anderson (plus, I bet, Eric Murdock as an FA pickup)

This is good.  

What the Clips are left with:  

Wright
Rogers
Murray
Pierce
Barros

Also, this is good, though I'd like to think not as good as the C's. 
Probably a vain hope, but hey, we all got to dream. 

This may not happen, but mark my words, there is no way Pitino's
thinking playoffs next year.  None.  He wants it NOW.  And he will,
without question, bust this team up if he thinks he can make the team
better.  One only hopes he'll make better decisions than he did two
summers ago.  
But enough dark clouds.  Training camp opens soon, and free agent period
too, then finally some BALL!!  YAHHHH!!!

Peace

Chris