RE: The plan..the tank?

[jmc@ptc.com]

Neal R Hoffman <nealh@umich.edu> said:
> Now that AW is out, we need the 1,2,3 pick.
> 
> Do you think we will hold out Kenny and Ron and make a tank for the higher
> pick.
> 
> It makes sense to tank, but I swore I could never cheer for another loss.
> 
> I am so torn. 

Don't be torn, Neal.  The way to go is to win as many games as possible. 

John Lyell responded: 
> With our recent winning run, I think we have played ourselves out of a 
> first rounder next year unless Cleveland passes due to it being a weak 
> draft.
 
John's right.  It's highly unlikely that the Celtics will get a 1-2-3 
pick, even if they lose almost all the rest of their games.  The worst 
they could finish would be a .320 winning percentage, which currently 
beats out 5 teams.  Most likely the Celtics will finish with the 8th
worst record.  

Potential gain from tanking: 
  -  Slightly improved chance of getting a top 3 pick, improving from 
     "very very unlikely" to just "very unlikely".
  -  In the highly unlikely event that Cleveland waits another year to take 
     the Celtics' pick, the C's get a slightly better pick this year, 
     but this is not really a gain because it would give them another young 
     player when the only thing they need is a good veteran or two. 

Potential loss from tanking: 
  -  More likely that Cleveland will take our pick this year. 
  -  Irreparable damage to the relationships between the fans, the 
     players, the coaching staff and the media.  Tons of negativity, 
     which - as Pitino said on "The Rick Pitino Show" yesterday - is 
     what the Celtics need to get away from right now, and which can 
     cause irreversable damage to a young team, which would mean he'd 
     have to break up the team and start over.  

When you consider the potential gains from tanking compared to the 
potential damage from tanking, it's a no brainer.  We've got all the 
young talent we need.  What we need is a positive attitude to be 
developed.  Win as many games as possible, and get positive momentum 
going into next year.  Also, remember, a winning team will also be more 
attractive to free agents (i.e. veterans, which is what we really need).

Besides, how does Antoine being out for the season create a greater need 
for a high draft pick?  I'm assuming he'll be back and fully healthy at 
the start of next season, which is the earliest the drafted player could
help, anyway. 

Jon Mc