Re: 80% of NBA could be free agents

[Joe Hironaka <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

Nathan A. wrote:

> On ESPN sportszone, there is a column that says that if there is no
> 1998-99
> NBA season, then 80% of the players in the league would be free agents
> going
> into the 1999-00 season (.....) The way I see it, it would lead to
> chaos. With that many
> free agents, team makeups could change drasticly in a short period of
> time.

Hi:

We can all look forward to the most dizzying/chaotic wheeling & dealing
in the history of the league during the 48-hours-or-so between the
moment the new CBA is signed and the start of training camps. I think we
better save are energy for that.

Among other things, of course, it could be a defining moment regarding
which NBA clubs have the smartest and best prepared front offices.
Pitino will have to instantly 1) determine if Antoine will follow
through on his immature "guaranteed" threat to leave if not signed
before the season; and 2) find a suitable trade if necessary that would
IMO for sure have to also include a Mercer or Pierce.

I say this because I think AW stock is dirt cheap right now relative to
his real trade value (as Dan Jessen also has pointed out). As we all
know, the kid has just gone through a Summer in which he was:

1) trashed on national television as a deadbeat dad
2) thoroughly trashed by the most respected of NBA beat writer alive
(Bob Ryan)
3) been defined as "the most hated player in the NBA" in a Peter May
column
4) gotten the reputation as an unrealistically greedy person who will
shoot off his mouth at his coach.

The worst part is that I wouldn't necessarily blame AW if he isn't
suitably repentant before the Boston media regarding these allegations.
AW will probably take a somewhat defiant attitude at first - he's just
that type of kid - and ace demagogue Peter May will move in for the easy
kill.

Given all this, I'd bet some fool GM might even imagine they can get AW
straight-up for an Eric Montross-type, the way we got the NBA's best
defender, Dennis Johnson, (who I think Lenny Wilkins had called "a
cancer" to his team) for Rick Robey back in 1983. After all, If AW
played on a different team, I'd bet some Celtics list-members including
me would eagerly propose trading our Minor/Travis-types for him.

The problem is that most of us would like to evaluate AW for another
year before we sign him to Pedro Martinez money.  My feeling (I could be
totally wrong) is that 1) it could cost the Celtics up to 50% more if we
wait until he's unrestricted next year, but that 2) he would still be
"signable" next year (as opposed to "signed-by-the-bulls"), in the sense
that Pitino would insist on out-bidding everyone if Antoine finally
proves that he's not just a genuine 5-skills player (inside, outside,
defense, passing, rebounding), but a polished 5-skills superstar.

Although it's far more risky (and maybe expensive) to wait, I'd almost
rather risk losing Antoine after next year than sign him now before he
has come close to proving himself, or (worse) to trade him now after his
second season and at such a young age. I don't wish necessarily to sound
too much like Noah Evans, but AW has a nearly sociopathological,
hyper-competiveness of a young Bill Russell, Ted Williams (especially!!)
and Larry Bird. For me, it's this wierd and basically unattractive
pathology (which can come across as "shallowness" or "selfishness") that
totally distinguishes those four from other relatively smoother-talking
superstar guys who claim (and might even believe) they have the right
stuff - namely, a genuine capacity to produce against big opponents and
in clutch situations.  As much as the Boston media rightfully protected
Larry Bird's reputation for all that he did in Boston, the 24-year-old
rookie Larry Bird still basically came across to me as the poor rural
white trash flipside of the black, urban 22-year-old Antoine Walker.
Both guys would tell their new teammates in utterly stark terms that
"I'm the big star here so give me the damn ball if the game is close".
You'll never hear sweet, shy, handsome and articulate Chris Webber,
Grant Hill or Ron Mercer utter such words. It's just not in them.

Do you all remember how AW dropped 49 points and 12 rebounds on Chris
Webber back when the Boston media was speculating that Webber was the
guy most likely to keep him off the All Star team? Well folks, just wait
until next year in Portland if someone reminds him that the Celtics
considered trading him for Rasheed Wallace. It's frightening to think of
the demons inside Antoine's head. The force is with young Sky Walker.
He's a 21-year-old force of nature, and - all things considered - I
think we're blessed to have him alongside our far more likeable and
upstanding citizens (Pierce and Mercer). Sorry to get carried away
again.


"Beat LA in 2000"


JH
Paris

*****