David D'Alessandro: Season On The Brink

[Way Of The Ray <wayray@ix.netcom.com>]

                                [Star Ledger] [Sports]

                          At least they agree season is on brink

                                         11/29/98

                                   By Dave D'Alessandro
                                       STAFF WRITER

                It's a wonderful life, Steve Kerr says. He loves his job,
                but nothing beats being home for Christmas. So while he
                would like to be playing basketball, he is like most of his
                peers, preferring to spend the holiday surrounded by
                family, perhaps using some of this quality time watching
                Frank Capra's charming odyssey about a common man's
                self-realization.

                "That's one of my favorite movies," the Chicago Bulls'
                union representative said.

                He paused. You could almost see a race going on between his
                brain and his expression.

                Then, dubiously: "But isn't that the movie," he added,
                "where he loses all his money and becomes so frustrated
                that he ends up deciding to jump off a bridge?"

                This is what it's like to be associated with the NBA these
                days: You spend most of your waking hours in an obscure
                hunt for dark clouds lurking behind silver linings.

                The league's act of self-immolation has become so
                protracted it has lasted longer than a typical Dennis
                Rodman marriage. The preseason is long gone, so is the
                November schedule, and December slipped away this weekend.
                More than $300 million has been lost in player salaries.
                Another vast, untold sum -- also in nine figures -- has
                been lost in league revenue. And now, the league and its
                administrators who ordered the lockout 151 days ago have
                come face-to-face with the decision they have been dreading
                all along -- whether to blow up the entire season.

                "We're not going to set a drop-dead date because that would
                just sound like a threat," said deputy commissioner Russ
                Granik. "We all know that eventually, as each day goes by,
                we're all going to realize that we can't play a season. But
                to just throw a date out there now, that's not going to
                make it any easier to make a deal."

                Not only are owners and players "on different planets,"
                Granik says, "I don't even know how we can get on the same
                planet," a mildly overstated reality that inspires debate
                in every corner of the NBA's universe. But now that
                negotiations have broken off again, the debate about
                whether the season will be canceled has taken the form of a
                grotesque office pool, with all the conversation focused on
                the 'when' and not the 'if.'

                Follow the bouncing kill date:

                "I thought all along that the owners' drop-dead date is
                around Christmas," said Chicago-based agent Herb Rudoy. "I
                would find it hard to believe the league isn't being
                pressured by NBC and all its big sponsors to get something
                done by then."

                "I would think it would have to get done by Dec. 15," said
                Vinny Del Negro, the San Antonio guard. "But that includes
                the couple of weeks it takes of writing up the agreement
                and getting it ratified."

                Then there were the dire predictions of two team
                executives, one from each conference, both of whom claimed
                Friday to be in rough agreement with every peer they have
                consulted recently.

                "We're right at the edge, and it looks like we're going
                over," the Eastern Conference exec said. "I'll give it a
                two-week window, no more. If we don't have an agreement in
                principle by the 11th of December or so, I see no other
                option than for David (Stern) to pull the plug."

                Added the Western Conference GM, "It's really hard for
                anyone to be optimistic anymore. After this past week (and
                the cessation of bargaining), most of us think we're done.
                You can't start a season in late January."

                You also can't haggle without an opponent. For five, long,
                silent days now, Billy Hunter has decided to let the league
                dictate the schedule: "Russ' last words to me were that
                he'd get back to me when he thought it was appropriate,"
                said Hunter, the executive director of the players' union.
                "So I'll wait. I'll wait until he gets back to me."

                Granik or Stern probably will call Hunter sometime early
                this week, but the same ground rules will apply: "No
                concessions," they'll tell him, "no negotiation." And even
                if there is a bargaining session by the end of this week,
                an agreement could take another week or so to achieve. As
                Del Negro suggested, a verbal agreement would take at least
                five days to get it all down on paper. And by then, it
                could be the third week of December.

                Add another two weeks for trifling matters such as getting
                200 free agents signed to contracts, another two weeks of
                training camp, and you're looking at an opening night
                sometime in mid-January. Some, however, believe that
                getting past that initial hurdle will be hard enough, given
                that GMs may have to learn to operate under what could be
                an entirely new set of rules.

                "It will be bedlam," Golden State coach P.J. Carlesimo
                predicted. "I don't think there are a lot of intelligent
                opinions out there on how this is going to go down. The
                number of free agents out there -- and the uncertainty that
                comes from what could be dramatically different rules -- is
                going to make things very difficult. How can you marry that
                combination, and then squeeze it into the shortest period
                of time that has ever confronted any group of owners and
                general managers? (That) makes it impossible to predict
                what's going to happen. There's no way in the world."

                And keep in mind, he's talking about a best-case scenario.

                While this is going on, the league's vice president for
                operations, Matt Winick, will be seated in front of a
                computer with his staff around the clock, trying to
                formulate an alternative schedule that adheres to available
                dates in 29 separate arenas. His only mandate, he said, is
                to give every team the same number of home and road games.

                How many games that amounts to, however, has yet to be
                decided.

                "I can't see going less than 56 games," the Eastern GM
                said. "At least that would give you a pair of games against
                each team. And if you start in mid-January, you could
                easily extend the regular season into the first 10 days of
                May, because arenas keep those dates open for the playoffs
                anyway. The only real certainty is that you can't stretch
                the Finals past the Fourth of July, because no one watches
                TV that weekend. But there are a lot of exotic solutions
                going around."

                One involves the multigame series, similar to that used in
                baseball. It would reduce the travel in a compacted
                schedule, but it would require playing consecutive home
                games against the same opponent. Another possibility is a
                strictly intraconference format, which would uphold
                rivalries but also upset every Western Conference team that
                wouldn't benefit from the guaranteed sellout that
                accompanies Michael Jordan's annual visit.

                But in terms of numbers, you don't need as many as you
                think to constitute a legitimate season. Consider that
                through 41 games last year -- the season's midpoint -- the
                top eight teams in the East were Chicago, Indiana, Miami,
                Atlanta, Cleveland, Charlotte, the Knicks and Nets in that
                order. Those eight were the same teams that posted the best
                records after 82 games -- in almost an identical order. In
                the West, the top eight teams after 41 games were Seattle,
                the Lakers, San Antonio, Utah, Phoenix, Portland, Minnesota
                and Houston. The same eight teams reached the postseason,
                in virtually the same order.

                Put simply, the second half of the regular season
                accomplished nothing, other than to create enough time for
                Utah to climb over three teams into the top seed.

                But seeds and standings and playoff matchups are subjects
                that seem very distant this week. Right now, most would
                settle for an announcement that the owners and players are
                willing to talk to each other again.

                "We can't agree on the shape of the table," league counsel
                Jeff Mishkin said. "We can't agree on what we have agreed
                to. That's not a conducive atmosphere for productive
                negotiations."

                As usual, the players tend to disagree. While most of them
                know that a kill date is probably only a few weeks away,
                many of them remain optimistic that a deal will be struck.
                Danny Schayes, the Orlando rep, said, "It's obvious neither
                side is going to get everything it wants, but the thinking
                (among players) is that a deal can still get done in the
                next couple of weeks."

                And curiously, some of that optimism is based on the skill
                of their adversary.

                "We're dealing with a man who brought this league from the
                dumps," Houston's Eddie Johnson said. "Stern is like the
                guy who goes 0-for-15 one night. He knows he can come back
                the next night and go 12-for-15. He's not going to stop
                shooting because he knows he can accomplish things if he
                keeps trying. He brought the NBA from bad times. I think he
                believes he can do it again."

                Yet even if Stern does salvage a season, there's no way of
                measuring the harm already done to the sport. Some teams
                already have begun implementing some clever marketing
                schemes to ease the damage, but it's likely that many fans
                have turned away. Some will stay away for good.

                "I don't expect their sympathy," said Tim Legler, the
                Washington guard who has been the most outspoken critic of
                his own union. "I don't blame them for being bitter, or if
                they go away and don't come back. I would be the same way.
                I would take the basketball out of my daughter's hand and
                put a soccer ball at the end of her foot."

                The message, of course, being very clear: Go jump off a
                bridge, NBA.


                       © 1998 The Star-Ledger. Used with permission.