Ratliff, Mercer

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

On CBS Sportsline, there's speculation that Ratliff will get a multi-year deal 
exceeding $50 million. At those kind of numbers, is he still worth it? 
A related article mentioned that Derrick Coleman still defended at center for 
the 76's regularly because Ratliff didn't have the bulk to do so. 

As for Mercer, I really like him and think he has a lot of potential but many
people on the list seem to think he is a sure All-NBA player. I don't think he's
shown anything close to that yet. He's shown that he can score about 18 ppg
shooting 45% from 2 point range (which, as I've mentioned before, is the same 
2 pt FG percentage as Walker who gets blasted constantly for poor shot 
selection). He still doesn't create his own offense for the most part and 
doesn't get to the free throw line enough. 

And yes, he can't shoot the three-pointer. Ok, Jordan really doesn't shoot it
well at this range either, but he's a very unusual exception. It would 
definitely help the team if Mercer could be a real three-point threat; it 
would extend the opposing defense, help the Celtics come back from large 
deficits, and increase his points/shot (a fg% equivalent).

I think statements like "I wouldn't trade Mercer for LaFrentz and Pierce" and 
"You can pick maybe 10 other players in the entire league that I think the 
average C's fan would trade for Mercer" really overestimate how good Mercer is.
It's debatable if he's even the 10th best shooting guard in the league. Yes, 
he's young, he's a rookie, and I hope he develops into a truly great player but 
it's far from a sure thing.

I've divided up shooting guards around the league into a few categories:

1) Michael Jordan. Comparing Mercer to Jordan is ludicrous.

2) Better than Mercer at shooting guard. I think any of us would be thrilled 
if he developed to the caliber of any of these. 
 Mitch Richmond
 Reggie Miller
 Eddie Jones
 Steve Smith
 Michael Finley

3) Peers at his age group who have comparable talent and potential.
 Allan Houston
 Ray Allen
 Kerry Kittles
 Kobe Bryant

4) Other shooting guards that are comparable or superior performers to what 
he's done so far.
 Wesley Person
 Jeff Hornacek
 Rex Chapman

I've omitted Latrell Sprewell and Isaiah Rider also. In any case, there are
quite a few active NBA SGs that had better first years than Mercer has so far,
so it's way too early to be giving him such high praise.

Alex