Trade, FA scenarios

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

Here are some possible scenarios for trade, free agent, and draft moves.

1) No big trades before the deadline or offseason. We'd have $30M in player 
salaries, plus the guaranteed salary of the 1st rounder. 
Most likely the Celts would trade a few young players for cap space
(Thomas, Jones if possible, even McCarty) and make a run at Luc Longley 
or someone similar. In the draft, who knows? This scenario seems unlikely.

2) Big trade of two or more of Mercer, Billups, 1998 1st round pick
for some combination of frontcourt players, expiring contracts, and 
draft picks before the deadline. This trade would involve dumping the 
salaries of Barros, Brown, Minor. The players we'd receive would either be 
C and PF, or C and SF, and would have to have between them: good 
rebounding, good interior defense, decent interior scoring, and 
shotblocking/intimidation. If the trade were for C and SF, three-point
shooting would probably have to be included. Celts would also probably 
trade these two for a single great frontcourt player. The backcourt would be 
filled out by draft and free agency.

3) Big trade of Mercer and Billups for PF/C and point guard. Again the
trade would be made fair as necessary by adding deadweight, draft picks, 
etc. Probably draft a shooting guard or swingman, of which many are usually 
available. I imagine something like Mercer and Billups for McDyess and Nash
is a possibility, assuming McDyess agreed to sign. Don't know where Billups 
would fit in at Pheonix though, maybe a three way trade?

3) Smaller trade of Billups and one of the deadweight contracts, and 
possibly our draft pick for a decent enforcer PF/C and expiring contracts.
The player traded for would have to have interior scoring, defense, and
rebounding (a young version of Oakley, Thorpe, etc.). The cap room gained 
by the trade would be used to pick up some experienced center such as 
Longley. We draft a point guard.

4) Trade of Billups and possibly deadweight for another young point guard
and possibly expiring contracts, and/or draft pick. This has been discussed 
before with Bobby Jackson and Steve Nash.

I don't see Walker getting traded under any circumstances. I don't
think Mercer would be traded without Billups unless we were offered
a good big man. It'll probably be impossible for us to get any good
big men without giving up Billups or Mercer.

Most likely the teams traded with (possibly in three way trades) will 
be somewhat desperate lower-tier teams that have cap room but that free 
agents avoid because they have no chance of contending, or rebuilding
teams.

Alex