Re: Billups, Anderson, Geiger

[Andy Shaw <shaw@transmeta.com>]

   Date: Thu, 19 Feb 1998 12:14:41 EST
   From: Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>

   The Celtics seem headed for the lottery unless Anderson learns the system 
   very, very fast and plays like his best years. My guess is that in the 
   mid-to-lower lottery where the Celtics draft, there are still going to be 
   some very good small forward prospects. 

Actually, Anderson seems to have been very consistent up until this
year.  He's about a 17pt/8asst/3rb/2st point guard -- I think the only
guards definitely better than him are Payton, Stockton, and Hardaway.
Strickland is better than him this year, but I wouldn't want
Strickland, because he's definitely a head case.  I probably wouldn't
take any of the other three either because they are too old.  Anderson
is not old at 27 -- he's got 4 or 5 good years left.

Other point guards who are comparable to Anderson include Brandon,
Kidd, Marbury, and maybe Iverson.  I might take Marbury over Anderson,
because of potential and age, but I think otherwise, Anderson is just
as good as Brandon or Kidd.  I wouldn't take Iverson.

This trade boiled down to Anderson for Billups.  IMO, we really ripped
off Toronto/Portland, because there's probably only a 20% chance that
Billups ever gets to be as good as Anderson is right now.  Anderson is
undervalued because he is having a bad year.  He will be a steal in
the same way that Hardaway was a steal for Miami -- if you remember,
it was a trade between Miami and Golden State: Hardway and Gatling for
Kevin Willis and Bimbo Coles.  Does that deal look lopsided now?

As for his contract, we're lucky to get him locked in for 5 years.  If
he were negotiating today, and he weren't as undervalued as he is
because of playing for the moronic Trailblazers, he'd be getting 50%
more, which would be a real crimp on our salary cap.

Bottom line: we get an undervalued, All-Star level point guard signed
to a long-term contract negotiated two years ago in a much cooler
market.  We get some cap relief.  We give up a player who, if he's
lucky, becomes the "next Sam Cassell" ... Pitino and Wallace are
geniuses, and the second coming of Red Auerbach.

-Andy