predictions for the East...

[pio@edu15.coe.ufl.edu (mark piotrowski)]

2 weeks ago I posted this message and not a whole lot has changed.  I've
included my Atlantic Stangings too.  A reminder this is how we think the
regular season will end not the playoffs (where NY makes it to the conf.
finals instead of Miami or Indiana)

1. Miami - I disagree they did it with smoke and mirrors.
2. New York - The addition of Dudley (if that ever happens) means that the
race for #1 in the Atlantic goes down to the wire.
3. Orlando - see below if Grant, Seikaly or (especially) Hardaway gets hurt
4. Boston - Most improved team in NBA this year! (Below as #8 is
posturing/wishful thinking)
5. Washington - I think they will always underachieve with the front line
of Howard, Webber and Muresan.  Bikerstaff makes them better but I think
they have to trade for a top notch shooter (Dennis Scott? Dana Barros?)
6. New Jersey - Anyone who thinks either NJ or Philly (both who finished
about 5-10 games ahead of us last year) will finish ahead of us is smoking
crack.  NJ is better than Philly and could challenge Wash if they implode.
Starting 5: Cassell, Kittles, Gill, Van Horn, J. Williams with Gatling,
David Benoit and Michael Cage coming off the bench. I don't like Calipari
either though.
7. Philly - Brown should help but I predict at least 3 major blow ups with
Iverson, Stackhouse, Jimmy Jackson (remember his maturity in Dallas?) Tim
Thomas (20 years old) and Derick Coleman.  Wait, they have Montross in the
middle, maybe they should be #2 on this list. Get real.


I see the East stacks up as follows (future FA acquisitions withstanding):

1. Bulls - duh. But the race will be closer this year.

2. Heat - I don't think they overacheived last year, and have added Masburn
(was only around for the tail end of thier run last year), a health
Majerle, Terry Mills, and Duane Causwell (to back up Mourning, allowing
Austin to play more alongside Mourning).  The recent addition of Eric
Murdock puts them ahead of the Knicks - Barely

3. Pacers - I think Bird will have them playing real well. But the key, in my
mind, is Mullin. People won't be able to focus on just Miller anymore. Bird
will hand the ball to Mark Jackson (who I think is underated) and let them
run an 80s style offense (Celtics, Pistons, etc.) of movement and passing
and strategic fast breaks

4. Hornets - Were you thinking NY, Detroit or Atlanta? The Hornets finished
0-3 games behind them w/ Tony Delk playing point.  They have done the best
job of any team filling thier needs in the offseason.  Wesley/Phills
becomes one of the best--and underrated--backcourts in the East (behind
Chicago, Atlanta and Indiana). Best top to bottom starting 5 in the East
too?

5. Hawks - NY moves up here (or to #4) if they get Dudley, but the Hawks
are as solid as the Hornets.  No superstars but great talent. If they had
grabbed Fox they're #2 in the East in my book.  They're a SF away from
challenging for the title next year (E. Williams?)

6. NY - Their age scares me. See above about if they acquire Dudley. I
don't see anything great about thier bench.  The 1st round NY/Indiana
series would be one for the ages though.

7. Pistons - The fall here by default, not b/c they don't have talent.  I
see 4,5,6 and 7 being seperated by 1-4 games like last year's 3-6 teams. I
do think Hill is the Man, but B. Williams is perhaps the most overated
player in this years FA class (Brian Grant comes close but at least he has
talent).  Remember this is BW's 5th team in 7 years or so.

8. Celtics - No I'm not taking drugs. Here's how it breaks down:
The Wizards will underacheive to
break out of the gates, then wise up and trade Chaney and Muresan for a
real SG, move Webber to C, and Howard to the 4 spot and start Tracy Murray.
The trade derails their continuity and they finish around .500.  Orlando
breaks out of the gates, but if either Hardaway, Seikaly or Grant get hurt
forget it. The Bucks arguably have more seasoned talent than the C's but
does anyone really think Sherm is going to get them to the playoffs? The
Raptors are just too young.  That brings me back to the C's.  Pitino will
have them playing amazing come December and will squeeze every ounce of
effort out of Mills, Mercer, Walker, Billups, Brown, Knight, et al. and
will have them believing they can knock the Bulls off (I predict a C's
victory on Oct. 31) for the title. They won't do that, but 45 wins is not
out of the realm of possibility and is 1 more than Wash. needed to qualify
last year.  You heard it here first!

- --Mark Piotrowski
The Gainesville Celtic (living in Boston for now!)