Prediction

[jmc@ptc.com (Jonathan McIntyre)]

I think too many of those who've made predictions on this list have 
based a lot on the first 3 preseason games.  They've barely even 
begun to work on learning the offense and defense, folks.  They've just 
been working on conditioning.  These guys are playing tired from all the 
working out, so you can't really evaluate how they'll be when they're 
more rested.  Even though many of them are young and will hit a "rookie 
wall", it won't be as bad as for most rookie starters, since Pitino 
will spread the minutes out, and he's been getting them into shape since 
the middle of the summer.  They look sluggish now but they'll be wearing 
their opponents out very soon.  

Remember, the rest of the league has been playing slow-down basketball for 
so long that they're not in condition to run full speed for 48 minutes.  
The Celtics last year, when they played up-tempo, would do well against
a lot of the best teams.  The C's were in the game late in the game
most of the time last year, but they just didn't have the conditioning
and depth of speedy uninjured players to keep up the pace for 48
minutes.  Last year's team had no idea how to play pressure defense,
but they still tried it more than most teams did, and had some success because 
their opponents didn't have much practice against the up-tempo, pressure 
style of play.  Having Fox and Wesley to steal the ball so much helped also. 
This year, they don't have Fox and Wesley, but they will know the right way to
play pressure defense as a team, and they'll have the depth of fast,
durable bodies to do it for 48 minutes a game.

That alone gives the C's a tremendous advantage over last year's team.  
Last year, as soon as the C's started slowing down due to fatigue, it became 
a half-court game and they'd get demolished for the lack of quality, strong 
big men in the paint.  This year, the uninjured big men will only be slightly 
better than last year's, but that won't matter because they won't be in a 
half-court game very much of the time.  So all the arguments I'm hearing 
about the lack of a quality big man leading to another dismal season don't 
make sense to me.  They'll need a quality big man to become a championship 
contender, but they won't need one to become a .500 team.  

My prediction is based on the assumption that only the teams with really 
good ball control or who are used to a more up-tempo style will be able to 
handle the Celtics this year, especially once Pitino teaches them the system, 
but even somewhat before they learn it.  For instance, I think Sam Casell's 
excellent control and affinity for up-tempo play was the only reason 
New Jersey beat Boston on Wednesday.  

My prediction is 40 W, 42 L.

Jon Mc