Draft

[DJessen33@aol.com]

Ratings system bases its success on statistics, not hype

By Dwain Price
Star-Telegram staff writer

Dave Heeren got tired of cringing every time he saw NBA lottery picks turn
into busts, so he
decided to develop his own rating system.
Heeren's formula, called TENDEX, doesn't fall into the trap of rating a
player highly just because he
was a starter at a big-time college that went to the NCAA Tournament.
In Heeren's system, a player receives one point for every point he scores, a
point for every steal,
and a point for each assist, rebound and blocked shot. Points are subtracted
for each turnover, and
all missed field goals and missed free throws.
Heeren won't reveal the rest of the formula, but he said it accounts for
minutes played, strength of
schedule and the number of possessions a team has.
According to the TENDEX rating system, Kentucky's Jamal Mashburn and Ohio
State's Jim
Jackson were drafted too high by the Mavericks. The team chose Jackson with
the fourth pick of
the 1992 draft and Mashburn with the fourth pick in 1993.
"Mashburn looked great in college when he was scoring, but that's all he
could do," said Heeren,
who works for the Fort Lauderdale Sun- Sentinel.' "But he turns the ball over
too much, he doesn't
play good defense, and he doesn't rebound. TENDEX said he should have been a
high
second-round or low first-round pick, which means he could start for some
teams and not for
others.
"Jackson was rated high, which means he's a good solid NBA player. But he
should have been
drafted in the mid-to-upper level," no higher than 15th overall.
TENDEX rated Jason Kidd extremely high. Translation: A franchise player who
should not have
been traded.
Heeren said Duke's Cherokee Parks "should have been drafted late in the
second round." The
Mavericks drafted him 10th overall.
Heeren, who has written several books rating various college and pro teams,
said Duke guard
Bobby Hurley and North Carolina center Eric Montross are other prime examples
of lottery picks
with very low TENDEX ratings. But the Sacramento Kings chose Hurley with the
seventh pick of
the 1993 draft, and Boston selected Montross with the ninth pick of the 1994
draft.
"They got so much exposure because Duke and North Carolina were always on
TV," Heeren said.
"But neither one of them is any good.
"The ratings said do not draft Montross. As for Hurley, he was below plus
100, and to be a first-
round pick you should be a plus 175. He's too small, he's too weak, and he's
not a good shooter."
Because it is a rating system in which numbers simply have to be plugged in,
TENDEX is already
set for next month's draft. If teams draft strictly on the highest-rated
player -- and not for any
particular need -- the draft should go like this:
Wake Forest center Tim Duncan goes to San Antonio, Utah forward Keith Van
Horne is selected
by Philadelphia, Colorado point guard Chauncey Billups is drafted by Boston,
Vancouver gets
Kentucky forward Ron Mercer, Denver drafts Villanova forward Tim Thomas,
Boston picks
Kentucky guard Derek Anderson, and Bowling Green point guard Antonio Daniels
is chosen by
New Jersey.
Rounding out the lottery picks by TENDEX, Golden State drafts Texas Tech
center Tony Battie,
San Jose State guard Olivier St. Jean heads to Toronto, Colgate center Adonal
Foyle goes to
Milwaukee, Sacramento selects Iowa State center Kelvin Cato, Indiana drafts
Cincinnati forward
Danny Fortson, and Cleveland nabs Stanford point guard Brevin Knight.
Players with a lot of college (TV) hype that should be avoided, according to
TENDEX, include
Kansas point guard Jacque Vaughn and Michigan forward Maurice Taylor.
"Vaughn is not a lottery choice," Heeren said. "Anybody who can get beat that
bad by [Arizona
State's] Mike Bibby, who is a freshman, you don't want to pick that guy in
the lottery.
"And Maurice Taylor is no more of a first-round draft choice than Montross or
Hurley. But he will
be chosen in the first round."
Heeren said the ratings show that Tracy McGrady, the only high school player
in the draft, would be
the perfect pick for the Mavericks, who draft at No. 15.
"He's a young kid, and they have to rebuild," Heeren said. "As long as they
don't get impatient."
Heeren said those in charge of scouting in the NBA view his system as a major
threat to their jobs.
"They're intimidated by it, because they don't want to hear anything any
different from their little
circle," Heeren said. "Scouting is a multimillion [dollar] business, and then
here's a little formula that's
way better than theirs?
"If you knew how to do TENDEX, you don't need a scouting staff."
By the way, before the NBA playoffs started, Heeren totaled the statistics of
the 16 teams involved,
and using his formula, the top two teams were the Chicago Bulls (111.36) and
Utah Jazz (111.23).
Dunleavy speaks out
Former Milwaukee Bucks general manager Mike Dunleavy, who was hired this past
week as coach
of the Portland Trail Blazers, took some shots at his old bosses in
Milwaukee.
Apparently, Dunleavy is irritated that the Bucks forced him to resign as
coach after he coached the
Bucks to a 107-221 record in four seasons.
"Throughout the league, my name has appeared in almost every job that came
up," Dunleavy said.
"There's a reason for that.
"People who know basketball, I think, respect my abilities. They know how
hard I work, and they
know me as a person."

Dwain Price writes about the NBA each Sunday and Wednesday during the season.