lottery picture

["Caleb J. McArthur" <cmcarthu@umich.edu>]

Well, we are down to the stretch run (a dozen games or so to go).  Here is
what we have:

9.  Golden State	25-44	.362	--
8.  Toronto		25-45	.357	0.5
6.  New Jersey		22-47	.319	3.0
6.  Dallas		22-47	.319	3.0
5.  Denver		19-50	.275	6.0
4.  Philadelphia	18-50	.265	6.5
3.  San Antonio		17-52	.246	8.0
2.  Sell-tix		13-58	.183	13.0
1.  Vancouver		12-60	.167	14.5

Notes:

1.  Dallas and New Jersey are now tied for the 6th worst record.  In
addition to rooting for NJ to continue its move past Dallas, we should
root for them to pass Toronto since Toronto is ineligible for the 1st pick
(ie.  eliminate more ping pong balls in the Duncan sweepstakes).

2.  San Antonio seems to be to far back to pass Dallas, but Denver (who
lost by 2 tonight!) and Philly (two games left vs. Boston) still have a
slim but fairly reasonable shot.  Thus as I see it the range of reasonable
possibilities of season ending order is 1/4 - 2/9. 

3.  Circle April 12 on your calendars.  That is the day Vancouver plays
@ Dallas.  It's the Grizz's 3rd to last game, and could have a huge effect
on both the number of Dallas ping pong balls and Boston ping pong balls.
The grizz have one less win than the Cs; other possibilities for a Grizz
win are when they hosts the Bucs and when they play @ Sacramento.  Go
Grizz.


If everything goes the Celtics way and the Cs and Dallas finish 1/4, we
would have a very legitimate chance at the first two picks in the draft or
the 1st and 3rd picks.  

If the Cs get 1 and 2 and Toronto is at 7 or 8, I say we draft Duncan and
Mercer, trade Walker, Radja and a future first round pick for Baker and
Ray Allen, and finally trade Fox (we would have to resign him if he opted
for free agency)  and Marty Conlon for Toronto's pick which we use to take
Foyle.  Lineup:

1.  Wesley
2.  Allen
3.  Mercer
4.  Baker
5.  Duncan

Bench:  Williams (classic 6th man forward), Foyle (can play PF or C with
Duncan or Baker at PF), ??? (we need a 10 min/game backup pg here -- can
we get one with the 30th pick?).

There is an 8 man rotation that could be contenders for the title in 4-5
years if we bring in a good coach (ahem Pitino).



CJM