Re: random thought snd questions?

[lamphier@m.u-tokyo.ac.jp (Marc Lamphier)]

At  2:56 PM 97.3.3 -0500, Adam A Suchocki wrote:
>> This is not correct...together, the top (bottom) three teams have a 60.7% of 
>> getting the first pick.  If you add the fourth-worst team, you get almost a 
>> 3/4 chance that one of them will get the top pick.  After the top three
>>picks, 
>> the order of finish *is* the draft order.
>I don't see how what I said wasn't correct.  My point is that order of
>finish is not the same as where a team picks after the lottery.  The worst
>record does not even come close to guaranteeing the number one pick.  It
>is more likely that that worst record will not get the pick than it is
>that they will.  As you just stated, there is a 25% chance that some team
>other than the top four will get a top pick.  I was compairng the
>advantage of being first to second (50 balls out of 1000) - a 5% extra
>chance, and stating that is not worth putting a lot of worry to whether we
>finish first or second.


Adam is definitely right in saying that it is more likely that we will NOT
get #1 as that we will. If we assume that Vancouver comes in #1 overall,
but is excluded from the #1 pick then the #2 team has a 200/750* (27%)
chance of getting the first pick. With the Dallas ping pong balls thrown
the odds of the Celts getting #1 increases slightly to something like
218/750(29%), or maybe as high as 276/750 (37%). If the Celts come in third
these odds drop to 157/750 (21%), but with the Dallas pick are upped to
somewhere between 175/750 (23%) and 233/750 (31%). 

Not a huge difference between #2 and #3 slots, but it is still greater than
a 5% difference. 

- -Marc 

* 1000 minus the 250 pp balls from Vancounver excluded (actually I think it
is 1001 pp balls to start)