lottery, etc.

[JOzersky@aol.com]

I've been thinking about the odds in the Tim Duncan lottery, now that we seem
to have the inside track.  Do we have any math majors out there?  Here is
what I'm thinking.  Let's say we start with the chance that Vancouver,
Toronto, Us, or Dallas gets the top pick.  Let me know the chance of that --
i'm sure it is well over 50%.  Now, if the canadian teams come up first, they
take out another ball, right?  So, couldn't you say in a sense that their
balls don't figure into the lottery at all?  So our 200 plus Dallas (say) 100
would give us 300 out of (say) 650 balls or whatever?  I guess that still
amounts to a less than 50% shot, but does that make it more or less automatic
that we will end up at least with the second pick, or the third?  I figure if
we lose out on Duncan, we take Mercer and Battie,  but to tell the truth,
Chauncy Billups seems as impressive to me as Mercer -- he'd make me just as
happy.  (Of course, a lot depends on the camps.)  I see where Battie had six
blocks against Texas -- along with 12 points and a mere 7 rebounds.
AROUND THE LEAGUE:
I have been assuming all year that once Robinson gets back, San Antonio will
jet toward the playoffs, so powerful is the effect of a great player on a bad
team -- witness Derrick Coleman of the "3.5 games ahead of us" Sixers.  But
they may decide to keep the top five position they have now, as I certainly
would if calling the shots in San Antonio.  If this happens, Denver and NJ
are the only teams I see catching up with Dallas, despite their
self-inflicted holocaust.  I know I've said this before, but do you think the
sixers, grizzlies, us will win on a night they lose six or more times in the
course of the season?  (I think those are the numbers more or less.)  Maybe
the sixers, but you've got to figure the mavs will win a few more games this
year.  I saw them in person last week, believe it or not, and as bad as they
are, they have a shotblocking center and a very athetic player in Michael
Finley.  Obviously, practically everyone should beat them on paper, but you
know how these things happen.  Denver just gave up 12 assists a night with an
eye on the lottery and the FA market no doubt, and I now see where Boston has
probably spent its longest losing streak of the season.  With a lot of home
games left, and Pervis Ellison or Greg Minor possibly coming back, the law of
averages would seem to mitigate against other teams continuing to win more
often than us.

Please tell me what you think.  I wish it were June already!