Dallas' First Round Pick

[JASPINDLER@aol.com]

It's been a while since I have written anything on the list, but I have been
a faithful reader.  Whoa....Nellie!  This has to go down as one of the most
lopsided deals in the NBA.  Dallas will surely tank for the rest of the
season (decade?) and NJ will most assuredly win more games with the current
cast. This leaves the SeventyStinkers as the only possible block between
Boston and the top pick in the draft.  I got a copy of Dallas' schedule off
nba.com, and based on their current 17 wins, I project them finishing with
between 22-24 wins at best.  Boston is projected to finish with no more than
18 wins based on a quick analysis of the remainder of the season.  If ML and
the Dallas GM knew that their combined win total would be 40 or less for the
season, there is no way you could ever justify trading the pick in order to
get Montross.  

Now for my thoughts on the potential for this team next year:

Assuming that we can draft Duncan (or at worst Battie)
and assuming that the Dallas pick is somewhere in the top 5 choices:
and assuming that we resign Wesley for Day's money and send Todd packing

Scenario #1
Brown, Barros, Ellison and Radja cannot be moved for anything. Try as we
might, we are stuck with them.

Next year's starting lineups:

Walker, Williams and Duncan  with Wesley and Minor

Bench: Fox (the ideal 6th man!), Radja, Barros, Ellison and Brown

Remaining slots are filled with: the other #1 pick, and Marty Conlon

Under this scenario, I would not draft a shooting guard with the Dallas pick,
since we already have 3+ players who can do this (Minor, Barros, Brown and
Fox)

Scenario 2

Philadelphia or Sacramento trades with Boston in a package deal.

Philly gives up Stackhouse for Minor, Barros and Boston's 2nd round pick in
1997.
or
Sacramento gives up Richmond and Hurley for Brown, Minor and a swap of the
Dallas pick for thier first round pick. By moving up to a top five pick,
Sacramento then
drafts a replacement for Richmond and has Brown and Minor to hold the fort
until he develops.  Candidates include Billups, Seals etc.....

I would argue that either of these deals work for Boston because you have
addition by subtraction.  We must get down to an 8-9 man rotation, and today,
if all of the injured players were healthy we would have too many shooting
guards/small forwards.  If we learned anything from this past 2 months, it is
that Walker can play the power forward spot, Eric WIlliams is a 3, and Wesley
can run the team.  We need a center (Duncan or Battie) and a big 2 guard who
can play the uptempo style. Fox would be the ideal 6th man a la John
Havlicek, not that he has Hondo's talent, but he certainly has his hustle,
desire and leadership qualities.  

So, under this scenario, we have a lineup of:

Duncan or Battie, Williams, Walker, Wesley and Richmond or Stackhouse

Bench: Fox, Radja, Ellison and either Barros or Brown,  and the other first
round pick 

Now this is an 8-9 man rotation!  The biggest problem with this roster is
that the bench players are making more money than the starters, so there
would have to be a plan to address this issue over the long term.  (Perhaps
Dino will decide to go back to Europe!)

Scenario 3

ML ( or LB) is able to flush Brown or Barros, and Radja for role players in
the last year of their contract.  I have no idea who these guys may be, but
I'm sure the list can come up with some candidates that would work under the
cap rules. For the sake of illustration, lets call these guys the
"short-timers"

The lineup then looks like this:

Starters: Duncan (or Battie)  Walker, Williams, Wesley and Minor
Bench: Fox, Brown or Barros, Ellison, Conlon or Szabo, Short timers

Under this scenario, I would use the Dallas pick to draft the most promising
power forward possible, with an eye toward one that would develop in 2-3
years.  I would not take a 2 guard with the Dallas pick.  These guys are a
dime a dozen (in fact we have almost a dozen of them) and Minor can do a
decent job if surrounded by talent like Walker, Williams, Wesley and Duncan.
 By drafting a power forward with the Dallas pick, you give yourself
insurance in case Walker is hurt or decides to leave after 3 years.  

In summary, my advice to ML and the Celtics is as follows:

Hold onto those picks.  Don't trade either one no matter how tempting the
offer.  Dallas will suck big time for the rest of the season.

Don't re-sign Todd (Butthead) Day.  Despite his scoring ability and flashes
of talent he is not consistent and does not fit long term into the team
concept.  Give his money (2.9M$/yr) to Wesley, and sign him for 3-4 years.

Draft big.......Duncan and Battie if you can get both, but don't use one of
the picks on a 2 guard.  There are no Jordans or Grant Hills out there, and
we have enough candidate for the position.  

Sign or extend Rick Fox's contract. He wants to play here and be part of the
return to glory.  Sell him on the idea of the 6th man role.  He is still the
captain and spiritual leader of the team.  The younger players need someone
to be a positive role model for them, and Fox most certainly has their
respect.

Move any of the following players for players with short time
contracts.....Brown, Radja, Barros, and Ellison.

And my final word on coaching.......M.L is smart enough to know when to get
off the merry go round.  If he can steer us through this draft and get Duncan
and another big man, it may be time to turn this over to DJ.  If Larry wants
to be the GM, then Gaston should reward ML with a buyout clause worth 2M$
plus 25% of the annual value of the contracts that he can move out of  Brown
and Radja to other teams.  SInce Barros and Ellison are on his watch, he gets
no bonus for moving them.   Thats all for now!!!!!