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Here's excerpts from an article on summer tours.  Similar prediction 
to the sales survey--bleak outlook for new music groups.


Veteran Acts Carry Concert Tours  by Larry Flick

As the summer concert season approaches, US promoters are preparing 
for a busy, but safe, slate of venerable superstar acts skewed toward 
older audiences.

Though the field will be peppered with ongoing road jaunts by teen 
phenoms 'N Sync, Britney Spears and the Backstreet Boys, as well as 
the debut of Nickelodeon's kid-targeted festival, few recently broken 
acts are opening tours this season.

Rather, look for baby boomer favorites like Bruce Springsteen, George 
Strait, Patti LaBelle, Aerosmith and Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young--as 
well as joint treks mounted by paul Simon and Bob Dylan; Elton John 
and Tina Turner; and Lenny Kravitz and the Black Crowes--to dominate 
the landscape.

"The bottom line is that the new bands just aren't breaking as big as 
they need to be," said Jerry Mickelson, executeve vice president of 
Chicago's Jam Productions.  "And with the overall complexion of the 
concet business changing, it's getting harder for a new band to carry 
a major tour."

Also cited as a prime catalyst in the mature complexion of the season 
is the ever-rising price of tickets. "Not many people will be willing 
to spend a week's pay on a show more than once or possibly twice a 
season," said Danny Zelisko, president of the Pheonix-based Evening 
Star Productions.  "People are really going to want to see some of 
these bands(to pay these prices).  I don't like to cite specific 
shows, but the Lenny Kravitz show is going for $50--and that's an 
audience that can afford $20, $25 tops."

Zelisko adds that a key element driving ticket prices up is the 
exorbitant financial demands made in mounting tours.  "There's not a 
lot of long-term vision right now," he said." (Acts and agents are) 
asking for a fortune.  And in some cases, a group is doing a major 
tour before they've effectively headlined a small-hall tour."

Jerry Ade, president of the New York booking agency Famous Artists, 
sees the matter differently.  "People will pay anything to see a band 
they care about," he argued.  Ade is among those who believe the 
dearth of youth-driven tours this summer can be chalked up simply to 
"less interest from young people in major tours in general.  Their 
access to the acts they care about has changed.  With things like the 
internet, they don't need to wait for that big summer tour to get 
close to an act they care about."

(snip listing of summer acts)

Utsick and several other promoters also cite Cher's expected tour to 
do well. "She's a wild card in that she truly spans several 
demographics," said Sean McGee, president of the Houston-based Big 
Bang Productions.  "Just about enyone from a '70s throwback to a '90s 
 club kid could wind up at one of her shows.  In the past few months, 
she's gone from being more than an enduring icon.  She's back to being 
extremely hip."

In terms of festivals, only the Lilith Fair and Ozzfest are generating 
much advance heat.  The lineup for Lilith--a tour that will fold after 
this season--won't be announced until the end of April.

(snip expected line-ups for various festivals)


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