Lies, damned lies, and statistics (was Re: Well, THAT was intense)
kmalo17 at verizon.net
Tue Apr 21 20:06:53 UTC 2009
At 02:57 PM 4/21/2009, Phil Maymin wrote:
>For a slightly different conclusion, there is this stats-based blog:
>KG is one of the most productive players in the game, and big baby one of
>the LEAST (I was surprised too).
Why? it's only one definition of productive / unproductive. There are
a zillion others you can set up to say something different. It's
never the stats themselves, it's how you use them, and as the saying
goes, I can squeeze them until they'll scream anything I want them to.
Look at what he's basing it on and tell me what his chosen metrics
really have to do with Big Baby's positive productivity on the court.
Of courese he scores low.
Shooting is probably based on entire season and Baby's shooting %
only picked up when he stopped trying to shoot inside and getting
stuffed, and switched to the midrange jumpers, while it still took
him a while to settle in and get comfortable with taking and making
them regularly. Yes, it's a legit part of his productivity now but it
underwent a major shift that way during the season vs being part of
it all season.
Rebounds. He doesn't get as many rebounds as you'd like, but in part
because he's usually outside the paint on offense. While he doesn't
have the lift inside, which also affects his defensive boards. And
let's face it, he goes after them, but he doesn't GO AFTER them in
the same way Leon does, which is why Leon's rebounding is so much
better on a per minute basis even if the flat number difference
doesn't look that big a difference. And also helps other people get
boards because there's always a Celtics hand in there tapping away so
long as Leon is on the court. Leon gets just shy of a rebound more
per game in about 4 min less per game, but on a per 48 min, gets 4.5
more. This is the one productivity stat with some legitimacy,
especially given position. I can always tell which one is on the
floor between Glen and Leon without even seeing the player simply by
the flow of the action on the boards. But even then he's hardly
bottom of the league.
Steals. Not his game. Not any PF game and the one who has it as a
significant part of his game is the exception rather than the one
without gaudy stats being a productivity problem. In fact I'd almost
worry about a PF with a lot of steals because I wonder how many
points get scored from his being off his man who is unlikely to be a
major ball handler while going after those steals.
TO? shrug, again I think that early season jitters tilt the stats. He
makes TO, but he's not a turnover machine. He makes about half as
many as TO, who can be a legit TO machine, in more MPG.
Baby's production comes from other things like carving space, his
surprisingly improved although still far from wowing me defense, his
setting thunderous picks, that outside shot providing a key outlet
that can prevent a shot clock based turnover even if he doesn't
actually hit the shot, his nimble feet letting him make that bulk
that he uses well a factor all over the court, etc. etc. He also for
a young player is not afraid of the spotlight and tends to do better
under pressure, including on semi-weaknesses like rebounding. That's
no small thing, especially for this team, given our injuries.
I'm certainly not one of his biggest fans, but he's genuinely
impressed my by legitimately working on improving his game vs just
getting by with size and athleticism as he always has before and
tried to do last year. I didn't think he was capable of the self
discipline to work that hard and I'm glad to be proven wrong.
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