Sports' two most intriguing words: What if?
BDodgers at aol.com
BDodgers at aol.com
Mon Mar 10 14:35:36 CDT 2008
Sports' two most intriguing words: What if?
(http://x.go.com/cgi/x.pl?goto=http://search.espn.go.com/keyword/search?searchString=bill_simmons&name=SEARCH_m_archive&srvc=sz)
By Bill Simmons
Page 2
At the end of my _Basketball Blog_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/080223) two weeks ago, I wrote about the chain of events that
led to _Kevin Garnett_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3007) being traded to Boston. What if the T-Wolves hadn't betrayed KG by
quietly shopping him before the 2007 draft? Would Garnett still be stuck in
Minnesota? Would he have become the biggest target during the trading frenzy
this winter? Did the KG deal create a domino effect that ended up changing the
destiny of five 2008 contenders?
Certainly, it's one of the NBA's great "What ifs?" of this decade? So where
does it rank in the top 15? I'm glad I asked. Here's one man's list in
reverse order:
15. What if _Carlos Boozer_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3632) never screwed over Cleveland?
_This saga_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=1848196) becomes
more astounding over time: Inexplicably (the version in which you believe
Cleveland would just walk away from an option year worth $700,000 and allow Boozer
to become a restricted free agent for no good reason) or explicably (the
version in which you believe the Cavs made an illegal handshake deal to "forego"
Boozer's option year, allow him to become a restricted free agent, then sign
him to a $41 million deal), the one thing we know is Boozer used his
newfound leverage to sign a six-year deal with Utah for $68 million and screw over
Cleveland's benevolent, blind owner in the process.
Look what's happened since:
A. Boozer blossomed into an All-Star power forward and one of the best 20
players in the league, someone who would have been the perfect sidekick for
_LeBron James_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3704) .
B. Because Boozer bolted Cleveland, that eventually left the Cavs with a ton
of cap space ... and, um ... (take a deep breath, Cavs fans) ... the _Larry
Hughes_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3251) , _Damon
Jones_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3322) and
_Donyell Marshall_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2627)
signings. Ouch.
C. Had they kept Boozer and signed Jones as well, the Cavs could have been
the first NBA team to start two players with visible chest hair since the 1953
Fort Wayne Pistons.
14. What if Jason Williams never crashed his motorcycle?
It has been so long, I feel like I have to add this disclaimer: We're
talking about the Jason Williams from Duke (who later shortened his name to Jay
Williams) -- not Jason "White Chocolate" Williams or Jayson "The Guy Accused of
Killing A Chauffeur" Williams. Anyway, not a week goes by without some
troublemaking reader sending us a "bad" prediction from my archives to make me feel
stupid -- at least, I think that's the goal -- and one of the leading
"somethings" comes from 2003, when I predicted Williams (the No. 2 pick in 2003)
would be a better pro than _Yao Ming_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3599) (the No. 1 pick).
Well, you know what? I was right. I was DEAD right.
A lightning-quick, physical 6-footer who would have been unstoppable after
they changed the hand-check rules in 2004, Williams had _his moments as a
rookie_ (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija03.html) , including
the _26-14-13_
(http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200211090CHI.html) he slapped on J-Kidd and the Nets. He would have been a stud. There's no
doubt in my mind. But Williams stupidly crashed his motorcycle that summer
-- I say "stupidly" because there's no acceptable scenario when a professional
athlete with a chance to sign a $70 million contract some day should ever
own a motorcycle -- and that was that. How did Jay's injury change what
transpired with Chicago over the next five years? Imagine Utah only getting one
season out of _Deron Williams_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3929) and you have some idea.
(And while we're here, I wasn't sold on Yao for the same reason I'm not sold
on any guy taller than 7-foot-2 -- other than Kareem, there's no track
record of super-tall guys being able to stay healthy and effective while playing
between 82-100 games per season at the NBA level. Bill Walton, Rik Smits,
_Shawn Bradley_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=1273) ,
_Zydrunas Ilgauskas_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3121)
, Tom Burleson, Gheorghe Muresan ... all of those guys had major problems
staying on the court, right? It's not a game designed for freakishly tall guys
who weigh 300-plus pounds. That's what worried me about Yao, along with the
whole "everyone will be going out of their way to dunk on him" thing and all
the requisite cultural adjustments. If Williams hadn't bought that freaking
motorcycle, I would have been right on this one. So there.)
13b. What if Kevin McHale had taken Chicago's "Godfather" offer for KG
before the 2006 draft?
Here was the offer: _Tyson Chandler_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3512) , _Luol Deng_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3824) and the No. 4 overall pick for Garnett.
Now ...
(http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/080310&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1#)
Let's say McHale does the deal. And let's say he takes _LaMarcus Aldridge_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4130) with that No. 4
pick. And let's say he takes _Brandon Roy_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4134) at No. 6 and doesn't foolishly swap Roy for _Randy
Foye_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4135) (a swap
that never made sense, by the way). Suddenly, the T-Wolves have a nucleus of
Chandler, Aldridge, Deng and Roy. Wow. And that's not even a stretch. This
could have easily happened.
Meanwhile, Chicago would have ended up with Garnett, _Kirk Hinrich_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3710) , _Ben Gordon_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3820) , _Andres Nocioni_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3882) and the typical flood of
discount free agents and February buyout guys who follow a guy like KG, and
on top of that Garnett would have ignited Chicago as a basketball city just
like he ignited Boston (and potentially pushed the Bulls into the NBA Finals in
a weak conference last spring). Instead, they gave away Chandler, turned
Aldridge into Ty Thomas and wasted all their cap space on _Ben Wallace_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3149) . So, um ... that kind of
sucked.
13a. What if McHale had taken G-State's "Godfather" offer for KG during the
2007 draft?
Here was the offer: _Monta Ellis_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3966) , _Al Harrington_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3268) , _Andris Biedrins_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2427) and the No. 8 pick (_Brandan Wright_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4286) ) for Garnett.
Now ...
As much as I love _Al Jefferson_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3832) , the T-Wolves would have gotten four starters out of that
deal, including a franchise guard (Ellis, suddenly the next _Dwyane Wade_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3708) ), an up-and-comer
(Wright, suddenly being compared by everyone to _Chris Bosh_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3707) ), an athletic
rebounder/shot-blocker (Biedrins) and a quality veteran (Harrington). I thought they were crazy
for passing up that deal last summer ... but now, with the way Ellis has been
lighting it up lately? My God. Do you think Chris Mullin just spends 24
hours a day sighing in relief that the deal never happened? I would. By the way,
I'm starting to think McHale might not be a very good GM.
12. What if the Mavs had re-signed _Steve Nash_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3103) in 2005?
I defended Dallas for passing on Nash because (A) he hadn't looked good in
the previous two playoffs and (B) $60 million seemed like an obscene amount of
money for a 31-year-old point guard with serious back problems. What I didn't
defend was Dallas subsequently using that money (and even a little more) to
spend $73 million on _Erick Dampier_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3117) . If you're throwing money around, throw it at Nash over
a dog like Dampier, right?
MORE WHAT IF'S
Here are five more "What If's" that would've made the cut if they weren't so
improbable:
1. What if Shaq and Kobe had been able to juggle their egos and get along in
L.A.?
2. What if Darko Milicic had turned out to be a stud for Detroit?
3. What if Grant Hill could have somehow stayed healthy in Orlando?
4. What if Chicago had fired Scott Skiles in 2006 instead of giving Tyson
Chandler away and blowing its cap space on Ben Wallace?
5. What if Tim Donaghy had officiated Games 3 and 6 of the 2006 Finals?
To make matters worse, the Mavs made a fatal mistake by underestimating the
aforementioned rule changes that transformed Nash into the two-time MVP. Had
they kept Nash and _Antawn Jamison_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=385) (sent to Washington for _Jerry Stackhouse_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3005) and the rights to _Devin
Harris_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3822) ) and still
made the semi-brilliant _Jason Terry_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3333) trade, that's suddenly a monster roster: Nash, Nowitzki,
Jamison, Terry, _Josh Howard_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3732) , _DeSagana Diop_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=992) , Veteran Free Agent X and February Buyout Guy X year after
year after year -- as well as the league's single-most entertaining team.
(One other note: Looking back, it's fascinating Mark Cuban played the
"fiscal responsibility" card as his reason for not re-signing Nash, then quickly
overpaid for Dampier and started spending more recklessly than ever. Did you
know, for the 2007-08 season, Dallas is the only team to spend more than $100
million on its payroll? Incredibly, the Mavs are checking in at $105 million
this season, a good $17 million more than the second-place Knicks. I have a
great deal of respect for Cuban as a businessman and a thinker, but other than
passing on Nash, he has spent the decade making it rain like Pacman Jones --
only coming close to a title in 2006, when the Mavericks were robbed by some
incredibly poor officiating -- and now he's stuck with a nine-figure payroll
and a static roster that might be quitting on its coach as we speak. We're at
the point when the Mavs might need to be reinvented. And soon.)
11. What if Minnesota hadn't ticked off KG during the summer of 2007?
Again, if things hadn't fallen apart with KG and Minnesota last summer, he
would have stayed put for a few months (maybe more), opening the door for the
following two outcomes:
A. Using many of the assets originally earmarked for the KG deal, Boston
could have trumped Los Angeles for _Pau Gasol_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3513) .
B. Without the Lakers stealing Gasol, the Western Conference would have
shifted into "No Balls Association" mode. Phoenix wouldn't have rolled the dice
with the dangerous Shaq trade, and Dallas wouldn't have rolled the dice by
dealing for an aging J-Kidd.
Now, you could argue the Celtics could have just made the KG trade in
January or February using the same players. But would the deal have been as
effective? Remember, the Celtics signed _James Posey_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3341) and _Eddie House_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3436) at discounts once KG was aboard -- that's
not happening without the trade -- and they would have had a near-impossible
time pulling off a 6-for-1 deal during the season with the rosters of both
teams already filled. Throw in KG's trade kicker, and I just don't see that deal
happening until the summer, and by that time the Celtics would have moved on
Gasol.
Then, throw in this wrinkle: When Kobe flipped out before the season, there
was a stretch when the Lakers were actively shopping him around, only nobody
was willing to offer them a package that included an All-Star + cap space +
picks. Well, if they hadn't made the Garnett trade, the Celtics could have
offered them _Paul Pierce_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3253) , _Theo Ratliff's Expiring Contract_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3020) (so excited I get to write that again!), their
2008 and 2010 No. 1s and the future rights to Minnesota's No. 1 (probably
coming to fruition in 2011 or 2012) for Kobe and two relatively unfriendly
contracts (_Brian Cook_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3727)
and _Vlad Radmanovic_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1016) ). The Celtics could have kept a foundation of Kobe, _Ray Allen_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3080) , Jefferson, _Kendrick
Perkins_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3730) and
_Rajon Rondo_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4149) ; the
Lakers would have replaced Kobe with another All-Star, gotten three No. 1s
(including Minnesota's future pick, which could be valuable) and $20 million
of expiring contract with Ratliff and _Kwame Brown_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3511) (already on their roster) to make a run
at Garnett, Gasol, _Jason Kidd_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2625) or whomever. Everybody wins.
Did it work out better for everyone the other way? Absolutely. Garnett
revived the NBA in Boston; Kobe calmed down and eventually played his best
all-around basketball in seven years; the Lakers stole Gasol from Memphis partly
because the Grizzlies didn't have any other serious suitors; Phoenix and Dallas
panicked and made two of the most controversial trades of the decade; Miami
dumped Shaq's contract and kicked off Tankapalooza 2008; _Shawn Marion_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3332) became the first
professional athlete in history to seem happy going from a team with a .700
winning percentage to a team with a .200 winning percentage; the new-look Suns
struggled as John Hollinger turned into the Bill Maher to Steve Kerr's George W.
Bush; and the Lakers and Celtics have a chance to make ABC $325 billion if
they end up meeting in the Finals. Just know none of that would have happened if
the T-Wolves didn't tick off KG last summer.
10. What if Portland had never signed Theo Ratliff to a three-year, $36
million extension starting with the '06 season?
Imagine life without Theo Ratliff's Expiring Contract? I'm shuddering.
9. What if the Lakers had panicked and traded Kobe before the '07-'08
season?
By all accounts, the best deal out there was Phoenix's offer of Shawn
Marion, _Leandro Barbosa_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3731) and the rights to Atlanta's 2008 pick for Kobe. The Lakers didn't want to
trade Kobe to a division rival, so they crossed their fingers and hoped he
would calm down long enough for the team to gell. You could say they were
showing faith in Phil Jackson's ability to bring Kobe back to the fold, as well
as faith in their youngsters (_Andrew Bynum_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3936) , _Jordan Farmar_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4154) , _Ronny Turiaf_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2789) and _Sasha Vujacic_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3844) ) to develop into prime-time supporting
guys. You could say they had the resolve to keep one of the best three players in
the league even though he wasn't happy. Or, you could say they just didn't
have the balls to trade him.
Whatever the case, their plan worked, Gasol fell into their laps and now (A)
they're one of the leading contenders for the '08 title, (B) Kobe is going
to win the '08 MVP because everyone has collectively decided he's winning the
award even though we're only at the 60-game mark and _Chris Paul_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3930) is just as valuable (if not
more) to an equally good Hornets team, and (C) Mitch Kupchak became the first
GM from "The Atrocious GM Summit" to work his way off the panel for "The
Atrocious GM Summit II," tentatively scheduled for Isiah Thomas' house in
Michigan this summer.
With that said ...
That Phoenix deal would have been a good one for the Lakers. Not as good as
keeping Kobe, obviously, but a nice way to salvage a situation that was
heading south fast. Could the Lakers have contended with Marion, Odom, Barbosa,
Bynum, _Derek Fisher_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3125) and their young guys? What if you added Gasol and Atlanta's pick to that
mix? Suddenly the post-Kobe era is in pretty good shape, right? And would the
Suns really have been that great with Kobe, Nash (noticeably breaking down
this month, although it's unclear if he's banged up or just getting old),
_Raja Bell_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3467) (ditto),
_Amare Stoudemire_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3607) (and his scary-bad defense), _Grant Hill_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2626) (and his creaky ankles), _Boris Diaw_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3724) (and his creaky ovaries)
and that's it? Is that even a top-six team right now?
Anyway, I've written this a million times, but few things drive me crazier
than a team refusing to make the best trade possible simply because they'd be
sending their star to a rival team. Who cares? Hey, Philly fans, you realize
your team could have ended up with Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo and Boston's
2007 No. 1 pick for _Allen Iverson_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3094) , right? So stupid. (Note: When I'm running the Bucks
starting this summer, I'll be making the best deal possible at all times, even if it
means I'm sending _Michael Redd_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3442) to Cleveland to dump the Gadzuric/Simmons/Bell contracts
for expiring contracts. You have my word on that, people of Milwaukee! I will
never be afraid to deal our best player to a rival. Ever. And by the way, YES
WE CAN!) So Kupchak deserves to be commended for sticking to his guns and
keeping Kobe, but not if he was simply afraid to trade him to a divisional rival
... if that makes sense.
8. What if _Ron Artest_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3339) never went into the stands in Detroit?
Wasn't this the biggest NBA moment of the decade? For anyone who watched it
live, it was a surreal TV night right up there with Princess Di's death and
Buckwheat's assassination. The clip has been watched and rewatched almost as
many times as the Zapruder film; it probably has been removed from YouTube for
violating copyright restrictions more than any other NBA-related clip. I
wrote two columns about it in one week (_here_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/cowbell/041122) and _here_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/041123) ); I can't remember another event
prompting me to write two takes in 36 hours. Along with the Tim Donaghy scandal and
the time Darius Miles gave him a full-body hug during the '99 Draft, it's
one of the three most traumatic events of David Stern's reign as commissioner,
and it certainly has changed the rules with player-fan interactions over the
past three years. From a comedy standpoint, it catapulted both Artest and
_Stephen Jackson_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3210)
into the Tyson Zone, gave us the phrase "pulling an Artest" for eternity and
even gave us a chance to imagine what life would be like if _Jermaine O'Neal_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3120) could punch out
Turtle from "Entourage."
And then we have these two outcomes:
A. It's quite possible the best team didn't win the 2005 title. When the
Artest Melee happened, the Pacers had just finished throttling the Pistons in
Detroit and were staking their claim as "The Team To Beat In 2005." In the span
of five minutes, everything went down the drain. And if you remember the
shoddy '05 Finals when the Spurs beat the Pistons in seven, it's right up there
with the '94 Finals on the "Wait, Are We Sure These Were the Best Two Teams?"
Scale. There's no way to prove this, obviously, but I'll always believe
Indiana had the best team that season. Although maybe the Pacers were destined to
eventually self-combust in some way. Who knows?
B. From that moment on, professional basketball was effectively murdered in
Indiana. The Pacers have never recovered. Now they have the worst cap
situation in the league -- three brutal contracts (Jermaine O'Neal, _Troy Murphy_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3524) and _Jamaal
Tinsley_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3528) ), one
semi-brutal contract (_Mike Dunleavy Jr._
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3601) ) and no hope of getting cap space until 2010 at the
earliest. Even worse, the fans hated the post-melee team so much the Pacers were
forced to give away Harrington and Jackson to Golden State for the
Dunleavy/Murphy pu-pu contract platter, putting them in an even worse financial hole. In
retrospect, Larry Bird probably feels like Artest and Jackson charged into
the stands and started beating the hell out of him. Because that's basically
what happened.
7. What if Jason Kidd had accepted San Antonio's $87 million offer during
the summer of 2003?
See? Even when you're as savvy as Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford, you still
need a little luck. The Spurs won titles in 2005 and 2007 without Kidd, and
you could argue they were one miracle play (Fisher's 3-pointer in 2004) and
one stupid play (_Manu Ginobili_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3380) 's foul on _Dirk Nowitzki_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3252) ) from winning four straight. Assuming they landed
Kidd, the Spurs definitely would have dealt _Tony Parker_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3527) that summer or down the road (not a
good thing), and they wouldn't have had enough money to pay Ginobili without
going over the luxury tax, which they refuse to do (and that's definitely not
a good thing). Kidd's personal life also could have screwed up their
chemistry to some degree -- remember, his ex-wife was a legendary prima donna in
Jersey -- and going from Parker (a congenial guy, by all accounts) to Kidd
(moody, by all accounts) could have jeopardized the fragile balance of talent and
personality that made San Antonio so great in the first place.
Do the Spurs win more than two titles with Kidd? Do they win less than two?
Impossible to say. But here's what we know: I'd rather be spending $30
million on Tony Parker from 2007-2009 than $60 million on a declining Jason Kidd.
I'm gonna say Popovich and Buford dodged a bazooka bullet on this one. Since
we're here ...
6. What if _Tim Duncan_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3173) had signed with Orlando in 2000 to play with Grant Hill?
And to think, it almost happened. This could have been a humongous "What
if?" for three reasons:
A. If Duncan signs with Orlando, that swings the title in three seasons
(2003, 2005 and 2007). We haven't had a "What if?" that definitively swung a
title yet. Now we do.
B. Once Hill's body breaks down, Duncan finds himself emulating KG's career
in Minnesota and squandering his prime on a series of undermanned teams.
Those two would have been mirror images of each other -- Duncan wasting away in
the East, Garnett wasting away in the West -- and we would have spent those
years wondering who was more screwed and who was doing more with less. Bad
times all around.
C. With Duncan stealing his spot in Orlando, where would T-Mac have ended
up? What if he landed in San Antonio to replace Duncan? And what if they still
drafted Ginobili and Parker? Could they have won a title with those three
guys and Robinson in 2003? Could they have won one without a big guy? Hmmmmmm.
(Note: I would have ranked this one higher, but it's unclear if Duncan was
ever THAT close to signing with Orlando, and after learning more about him
these past seven years, it would have been extremely out of character for him to
ditch everyone from that '99 title team and chase the money to Florida. I
don't see it happening.)
5. What if Kobe had signed with the Clippers in 2004?
Just like the Duncan/Orlando thing, this would have been ranked higher if
anyone believed Kobe actually wanted to switch L.A. teams. The Clippers
organization fervently believed Kobe was coming because he needed a fresh start with
a new franchise -- don't forget, this was the same summer when Kobe was
getting blamed by everyone for pushing out Shaq and Phil Jackson -- until he
broke their hearts by changing course at the last possible minute. Other than the
Lakers offering an extra year (and slightly more money), was anything else
offered to help stop Kobe from joining a younger and more talented Clippers
team? Are the rumors true that they illegally promised Kobe a piece of the
Lakers after he retired? Should we read anything into Kobe being represented by
Rob Pelinka, the same guy who represented Boozer during another notorious
"wink-wink" arrangement that could never be proven (the Utah/Cleveland debacle)?
Were the Lakers afraid to seriously shop Kobe before the '08 season because of
something promised during those '04 negotiations? It's all hypothetical, and
we'll never know for sure until Kobe retires, and we learn if he earned the
Magic Johnson "Ownership Discount" from Dr. Buss. But everyone working for
the Clippers feels like something happened to trump their offer beyond the
dollar figures. They just don't know what.
Regardless, this was the single biggest moment in Clippers history -- the
time they came within a hair of stealing Kobe and completely changing the face
of professional basketball in Los Angeles as we know it. The second biggest
moment was when they signed Bill Walton away from the Blazers, and he
immediately broke his foot 47 different times. The third biggest moment happened in
the first round of the 2006 playoffs, when Mike Dunleavy stuck an ice-cold
_Daniel Ewing_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3958) on
Raja Bell and blew the Clips' one chance at an extended playoff run. The fourth
biggest moment was when they lost a deciding Game 5 in 1990 and ESPN Classic
showed the game one day. And the fifth biggest moment was when I nearly made
my half-court shot on "E:60." Not a fun three decades for the Clips in
California.
(So, why am I thinking about renewing my season tickets again? Oh, wait, I
know ... AL THORNTON! Did you see him take over the double-OT game against
Sacramento last week? Oh, wait, you had 530 better things to do on a Wednesday
night? My bad.)
4. What if Suns owner Robert Sarver said, "Screw it, I'll pay the luxury tax
every year?"
Well, the following three things would have definitely and unquestionably
happened: The Suns would have used the No. 7 pick on either Luol Deng or Andre
Igoudala in 2004 (instead of unloading that pick to Chicago for $3 million and
the No. 21 pick in 2005); they would have used the No. 21 pick on Rajon
Rondo in 2006 (instead of selling it to Boston for cash and the No. 27 pick in
2007); and they wouldn't have traded _Kurt Thomas_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3012) to Seattle along with their No. 1s in 2008
and 2010. Some people would throw in the _Joe Johnson_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3520) deal here (Johnson to Atlanta for
Boris Diaw and two No. 1s), but that wasn't a luxury tax move; they made an
effort to re-sign Johnson and he wanted to leave.
Just for the hell of it, let's give them Igoudala in that '04 draft because
he's better than Deng, and they might have taken him anyway. And let's say
they don't make the Shaq/Marion trade because they wouldn't have needed to dump
_Marcus Banks_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3716)
in the deal (they wouldn't have signed him if they had Rondo for one-fourth
the price), and besides, they already have Kurt Thomas. Here's your 2008 Suns
roster right now: Nash, Barbosa and Rondo as the guards; Igoudala, Hill and
Bell at the swing spots; and Stoudemire, Marion, Diaw and Thomas up front ...
as well as the rights to their No. 1 and Atlanta's No. 1 in this year's
draft.
That's not even a pipe dream or an imagine-if-this-scenario-had-played-out
roster. Lemme put this in caps for you, S.A.S.-style: PEOPLE, THAT WOULD BE
PHOENIX'S ROSTER IF SARVER PAID THE LUXURY TAX ALL ALONG!!!!! Can you imagine?
Is that the greatest 10-man rotation of all-time? Would they have won 75
games? We'll never know. What's tragic about the Suns' current situation is how
close they came to being positioned for the short term and long term better
than any franchise since the '86 Celtics: They would have been the runaway
favorites this season, and they would have been set for an abnormally long time
because of their young guys.
(Note to the Phoenix fans: You can now light yourselves on fire.)
3. What if the Knicks had never hired Isiah Thomas?
This could have been its own bizarro "Where Amazing Happens" commercial
called "Where Isiah Happens."
(Cue up the annoying piano music that haunts me every time I try to fall
asleep after hearing it for five straight months.)
(Picture of the '05 Suns celebrating after a playoff win.)
Where Phoenix dumps the _Stephon Marbury_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3099) and Penny Hardaway contracts on someone and
remakes its team into a contender happens.
(Picture of the '07 Bulls celebrating after a playoff win.)
Where Chicago dumps _Eddy Curry_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3514) for two lottery picks and copious amounts of cap space
happens.
(Picture of the '07 Raptors celebrating after a playoff win.)
Where Toronto finds some dummy to take _Jalen Rose_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2636) 's contract and aid its rebuilding
process happens.
(Picture of San Antonio's 2005 trophy celebration.)
Where San Antonio dumps _Malik Rose_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3134) 's contract for a center who helps them win the title
happens.
(Picture of the '08 Blazers celebrating after a last-second win.)
Where the 2008 Blazers become the most likable young team in the league
because they found a taker for Zack Randolph happens.
(Picture of a white SUV.)
Where a Truck Party happens.
(Picture of Anucha Browne Sanders celebrating on the courthouse steps.)
Where a humiliating $11 million sexual harassment settlement happens.
(Picture of Curry and Randolph looking overweight.)
Where an NBA frontcourt that includes two C-cups happens.
(Picture of a mostly empty Madison Square Garden.)
Where a 60-year tradition of professional basketball goes down the tubes
happens.
(Picture of Isiah sitting on the bench with that frozen, blank look on his
face like he's either flatlining or planning to kill everyone on the locker
room after the game.)
Where Isiah Happens.
(Follow-up note: Has a GM ever directly altered the fortunes of SIX
franchises before? Portland, San Antonio, Phoenix, Toronto, Chicago and New York.
That's 20 percent of the league. See if you can top that resume, Chris Wallace!)
2b. What if Atlanta had taken Chris Paul with the No. 2 pick of the 2005
draft?
(http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/080310&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1#)
We've made more than enough out of this one, although the better Paul plays
-- he's going to replace Isiah as the best pure point guard ever at this pace
-- it's slowly becoming the poor man's version of Bowie-over-MJ for this
generation of basketball fans, a decision that was relatively inexplicable at
the time and became between 10-20 times more inexplicable as the years passed.
It's safe to say CP3 will be haunting Atlanta fans. All 527 of them. With the
supporting talent the Hawks have in place, you couldn't pick a better team
for him. You really couldn't.
But here's what we haven't made enough of ...
2a. What if Portland had taken Chris Paul with the No. 3 pick of the 2005
draft?
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh ... you forgot about this one, huh?
On the day of the draft, Portland traded that pick to Utah for the following
package: The No. 6 pick (_Martell Webster_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3932) ); the No. 27 pick (Linus Kleiza, eventually
traded to Denver); and a 2006 No. 1 (which turned out to be the No. 30 pick, Joel
Freeland). I'm going out on a limb and saying Portland would love a do-over
on this one.
Just for the hell of it, let's say the Blazers took Paul. They're still a
lottery team the following season, although probably not as bad, so maybe they
end up with _Rudy Gay_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4136) at No. 8 instead of Aldridge at No. 4. They're definitely better in
'07, maybe a fringe playoff team, so let's take Oden away from them and give
them the No. 12 pick (_Thaddeus Young_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4290) ) that year. Which foundation would you rather have if
you're a Portland fan?
Scenario A: Oden, Aldridge, Webster, Roy, _Travis Outlaw_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3726) , _Jarrett Jack_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3948) , _Joel Przybilla_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3408) , the rights to Rudy Fernandez.
Scenario B: Paul, Roy, Gay, Outlaw, Przybilla, Jack, Young, the rights to
Rudy Fernandez.
Hmmmmmm. Paul and Roy as your backcourt for the next 12 years? Would that
have even worked when both guys need the ball in their hands? (Possibly.) Would
they have had enough size? (From the looks of it, no.) Would they have played
more like a Golden State-type style, and would it have worked? (With the
talent on hand, I say yes.) Anyway, if Portland takes Paul, that sets off a
crazy chain reaction: New Orleans ends up with Deron Williams instead of Paul;
Utah never gets its franchise point guard; Oden and Aldridge land in other
cities; maybe Roy doesn't turn into a franchise guard playing second fiddle to
Paul; and maybe Paul isn't quite as driven because he's not as ticked off for
the next few years after three teams passed on him. I have to say, I like the
way it worked out.
1. What if Memphis landed LeBron instead of Cleveland?
Take a trip back to the 2003 lottery with me.
We're down to the final two teams. If Memphis draws the No. 2 pick, it goes
to Detroit because of the stupid Otis Thorpe trade the Grizzlies made five
years before. If the Griz draw No. 1, they get LeBron. Arguably, it's the
greatest hit-or-miss moment in the history of professional sports -- like going on
"Deal of No Deal," getting down to two suitcases and having a 50/50 chance
of winning $500 million. For a few seconds, the cameras show Jerry West, who
has the same look on his face Forrest Gump had when he was hooking up with Je
nny for the first time. If he had dropped dead right then, nobody would have
been surprised.
Well, we know how it turned out: Cleveland got the pick, Memphis got
nothing, and eventually, a heartbroken West retired and disappeared off the face of
the earth, presumably to spend the next few years playing Russian roulette in
Southeast Asia like Chris Walken in "The Deer Hunter." (Sorry to throw
consecutive movie references at you, but the situation demanded two of them and
that's that.) Now look at this domino effect over the next five years if Memphis
gets that pick:
A. Bron-Bron joins a deep Grizzlies team good enough to win 50 games that
season without him. Better than starting out on a lottery team with _Ricky
Davis_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3264) and _Darius
Miles_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3402) , right?
B. Picking second, Cleveland takes Carmelo and builds around him and Boozer.
Since Denver's Kiki Vandweghe took _Nikoloz Tskitishvili_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3603) over Amare Stoudemire in 2002, it
goes without saying Kiki would have been dumb enough to take Darko at No. 3
over Chris Bosh. The rest of the draft probably unfolds the same way, although
Chad Ford still has Macij Lampe going No. 9 to the Knicks.
C. What are the odds LeBron stays in Memphis after his rookie contract ends?
I'm going with between 0.000001 and 0.009 percent. And that might be high.
That means he would have become a free agent following the 2007 season,
leading to the following sub-headings:
C-1. At least eight to 10 teams would have spent the '06 and '07 seasons
carving out enough cap space to make a serious run at LeBron.
C-2. You would have read roughly 200 billion words and heard nearly 200
billion words uttered about the previous paragraph. And that's a conservative
estimate.
C-3. There's a good chance Marc Stein's head would have exploded at some
point from following 35 hot LeBron rumors at once. If it happened on the "Coast
To Coast" show on ESPN2 in HD, even better.
C-4. There's no way Isiah would have planned ahead to LeBron being available
in '07, inadvertently knocking New York out of the LeBron Sweepstakes and
leading to a summer of rioting in the streets of Manhattan the likes of which
we haven't seen since the '77 blackout and the Son of Sam murders.
C-5. Jersey would have cut ties with _Vince Carter_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3248) , dealt J-Kidd for cap space and carved
out enough room to reunite Bron-Bron with his buddy Jay-Z as the star of the
Soon-to-Be Brooklyn Nets. Meanwhile, Orlando would have been throwing _Rashard
Lewis_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3275) 's money
at him and offering him the chance to play with _Dwight Howard_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3818) for the next 10 seasons.
Soon-to-Be-Brooklyn and Jay-Z ... or Orlando and D-Ho? Hmmmmm.
C-6. LeBron's departure swiftly kills basketball in Memphis, leading to the
Grizzlies eventually moving to England and becoming the London Hooligans.
Actually, that could happen anyway.
Final note: In two years, the Soon-To-Be Brooklyn piece of Scenario C-5
could end up being realized. (Sorry, Cleveland. You know it might be coming.) As
for everything else in the LeBron/Memphis scenario, it remains the greatest
NBA "What If?" of the decade. The good news? We still have 20 months to top it.
Bill Simmons is a columnist for Page 2 and ESPN The Magazine. You can check
out his _"Sports Guy's World" site here_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/simmons/index) .
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