Draft Watch: First round could have record number of freshmen
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BDodgers at aol.com
Thu Jan 24 09:27:13 CST 2008
Draft Watch: First round could have record number of freshmen
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By Chad Ford
ESPN.com
Last season's freshman class was one of the most heralded groups in college
basketball history. And with reason. In the 2007 NBA draft, the top two picks
were freshmen and a total of six freshmen were drafted in the lottery. Overall,
eight freshmen went in the first round.
On top of that, a handful of other freshmen, including _Chase Budinger_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19
026) , _Brook Lopez_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19042) , _Darrell Arthur_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19062) , _D.J.
Augustin_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19083) and _Ty Lawson_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19034) would've been first-round picks if
they declared for the draft.
Clearly the NBA's new age restriction is impacting the demographics of the
draft. But last season's class was special and everyone knew that going into the
season.
Everyone knew this season's freshman class would be special, too. However,
I'm not sure anyone was ready to predict that this class could produce more
first-rounders than last season's class. But it's a possibility now.
Since July 1, we've been frequently talking about five freshmen -- Kansas
State's _Michael Beasley_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19133) , Memphis' _Derrick Rose_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19132) ,
Indiana's _Eric Gordon_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19131) , Texas A&M's _DeAndre Jordan_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19136) and
USC's _O.J. Mayo_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19129) -- as being the top five overall prospects in the
draft. But that's just skimming the surface with this class. A plethora of
other freshmen could crack the lottery and first round in this year's draft and
shatter last year's record.
After talking with numerous NBA scouts and executives, here's a look at the
other freshmen who could make some noise come June.
Potential lottery picks
_Donte Greene_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19135) , F, Syracuse
At this point, Greene looks poised to make it six out of six freshmen at the
start of the first round. He's drawing some comparisons to Marvin Williams and
Rudy Gay with his size, athleticism and ability to shoot. But the truth is,
as a freshman, he's already having a more productive season than either
Williams or Gay had in college.
Just as importantly, he's also becoming a leader on the team, demanding the
ball in crucial situations and delivering for Syracuse down the stretch. He's
not quite the talent that Carmelo Anthony was for the Orange, but he's pretty
darn good.
We've been steadily moving him up the draft board and he took a big leap in
our last rankings, moving all the way up to No. 6 on our latest big board.
_Jerryd Bayless_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19137) , G, Arizona
Everyone knew coming into the season that Bayless' offensive abilities and
athleticism made him an excellent prospect. The questions were about his size
and position. In high school he was a shoot-first 2-guard, but at 6-foot-3 (and
that may be generous) he's undersized to play the 2 in the NBA.
Bayless has been playing the point for Arizona this season with mixed
results. He's definitely shown that he can be a big-time scorer -- often stealing the
spotlight from Budinger, who is a lottery prospect. He can kill you from long
range, midrange, in drives to the basket and at the free-throw line. Bayless,
however, has struggled while running the point. He's been turnover prone and
struggles to break down defenses in ways other than taking it to the basket
for a score. His assist-to-turnover ratio hasn't been great, and at times he has
failed to be a leader on the floor.
But scouts have seen enough to believe that he can be a combo guard in the
pros. His combination of elite athleticism, shooting ability and quickness makes
him an excellent NBA prospect -- one scout compared him to Monta Ellis with a
better shot and higher basketball IQ. Another to Gilbert Arenas.
A straw poll of executives found that most had him in the late lottery, which
means we've had him ranked a little too low for the past few months. He's
moved up on our board.
_Kevin Love_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19130) , C, UCLA
We're cheating a bit on Love. Everyone knows who he is and he certainly
hasn't lacked the spotlight as UCLA's starting center. However, there continue to
be questions about his NBA abilities.
On one hand, he's got the power and basketball IQ to be a great NBA player.
He is an amazing passer and has well-developed moves in the paint for a big
guy.
On the other hand, he is very undersized to play center in the NBA and even
lacks good size to play the 4 in the pros. He's also had a history of knee
problems and weight issues and struggles against long, athletic players.
Scouts continue to have mixed views on him. A handful have him as a top 10
pick, while some have him in the 20s. We've been compromising somewhere in the
middle until scouts can answer this question convincingly: What's the
difference between Love and UNC's _Tyler Hansbrough_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=18875) -- a guy most NBA
scouts have ranked as a bubble first-rounder?
The answer has been that Love is bulkier and a smarter player than UNC's
standout big man. But does he really possess those attributes to a significantly
greater degree than Hansbrough?
_Kosta Koufos_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19155) , C, Ohio State
Koufos came into the season looking like a lock for the top 10 and a possible
top 5 pick. Of all the heralded freshmen, he's been the most disappointing.
Although his overall numbers are very solid for a freshman, Koufos has come up
seriously lacking against major opponents like North Carolina, Michigan State,
Illinois and Iowa.
His excellent play for the Greek National team this past summer seems to have
carried over only so far. Don't get me wrong, scouts still think Koufos is a
terrific prospect with great size, basketball IQ and the ability to stretch
the defense with a silky-smooth jumper. But his inconsistency against college
big men, lack of rebounding and so-so shot-blocking numbers all have scouts
saying he may need to wait another year if he really wants to strike gold in the
upper half of the lottery. If he were to declare now, scouts believe he'd go
somewhere between the late lottery and mid-first round.
____________________________________
First-round locks
_J. J. Hickson_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19215) , F, North Carolina State
Hickson is an athletic big man with an NBA frame and the ability to score
from 15 feet and in. He's shown good ability as a shot-blocker and a rebounder
and has been shooting with extreme efficiency from the field.
Although scouts say he's raw and could use another year in school, the
combination of length, athleticism and efficency is usually a potent one come draft
time. His stock is harder to judge because of his rawness, but most scouts
have him going somewhere in the mid-first round.
_Bill Walker_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19077) , G/F, Kansas State
After putting Walker on the "Who's Not" list at the end of December, he's
been on fire, averaging 22.5 ppg over his last five games. Walker's explosiveness
is beginning to return and he's showing off a new and improved jump shot.
Over his last five games he has hit 13 3s and is shooting 48 percent from beyond
the arc.
The combination of Walker's elite athleticism and his improved shooting touch
tantalizes every scout. The comparisons to Vince Carter are legit and Walker
is beginning to show again why scouts had him ranked as a top 5 prospect in
the draft before his ACL surgery last year.
If Walker can continue to produce at this level and find a way to share the
ball with Beasley, he has a chance to shoot way up the boards. Questions about
the long-term health of his knee may keep him out of the lottery, but Walker
is looking more and more like a guy who could have his name called in the
teens.
_Andrew Ogilvy_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19219) , C, Vanderbilt
The big man from Australia has been one of the steadiest freshmen in college
basketball. He's a throwback player with excellent fundamentals on the
offensive end and he has a wide body that allows him to hold his position in the
post. He is very tough, has soft hands and is even deadly from the free-throw
line; how often do you hear that about a center?
His serious lack of athleticism and quickness and questions about his size
and rebounding ability keep him from being an elite prospect -- but there are
scouts who see a little Brad Miller in him.
Given the love affair NBA teams have with centers, it looks like Ogilvy would
be a lock for the first round if he enters. Whether he can rise higher
probably depends on two key workout measurements -- standing reach and athletic
ability.
_Davon Jefferson_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=18876) , F, USC
Jefferson has been on the NBA radar screen for years and, after a long wait,
he's finally at USC and living up to his billing as an athletic forward who
could be a game changer in the NBA.
Physically, he has it all: great size, length, a maturing NBA body and elite
athleticism both in terms of jumping ability and overall quickness and speed.
Skillwise, Jefferson has a long way to go. He gets most of his points running
the floor, slamming home an alley-oop or crashing the offensive boards. He
has no 3-point range and just so-so shooting ability from midrange. His
ballhandling skills are a problem and he seems to lack great basketball IQ.
Even his upside is tempered by the fact that he's a 21-year-old freshman who
failed to qualify academically for college the past two seasons.
Still, Jefferson's raw abilities don't come along very often and he's putting
up excellent numbers. That's probably enough to guarantee him a late
first-round selection. I spoke with sources close to Jefferson who claim he's leaning
strongly toward declaring for the draft this year because of his age. It's
probably a smart move from a draft stock perspective, though most GMs feel he
definitely could use one more year of school.
____________________________________
First-round bubble
There's another group of talented freshmen who are seen as not as ready for
the NBA. However, scouts believe that these eight players have lottery or
mid-first-round potential in the future and could even sneak into the first round
if they entered the draft this year. Here are a few quick hits on eight more
freshmen to watch.
_Austin Daye_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19214) , F, Gonzaga
Scouts love his potential. His size and ability to score inside and
especially from deep draw comparisons to everyone from Dirk Nowitzki to Kevin Durant.
His thin frame and relative lack of minutes may keep him from being a high
prospect this year unless he really explodes over the next few months. But next
year? Expect him to be in the top 10 on our 2009 Big Board.
_Blake Griffin_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19213) , F, Oklahoma
A big, strong low-post beast who might have been a mid-first-round pick if
not for his sprained knee in a game against Kansas last week. He's now expected
to miss up to four weeks. That still gives him time to come back for March
Madness, but he might be better off waiting a year and being a possible lottery
pick in 2009. He reminds some scouts of Carlos Boozer.
_Anthony Randolph_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19157) , PF, LSU
A super athletic big man who reminds some scouts a little of LaMarcus
Aldridge. He's equally comfortable with his back to the basket or shooting a
15-footer. He even has the ability to put the ball on the floor. He's also shown that
he can be a big-time rebounder and shot-blocker. The knock on Randolph is a
serious lack of strength. He gets pushed around on both ends of the floor and
needs to hit the weight room. Like Daye and Griffin, if he declared, someone
would take a chance on him in the first round. But if he stays, he has a chance
to be a lottery pick next year.
_Nick Calathes_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19153) , G, Florida
Calathes is already one of the most complete players in college basketball.
He can do a little of everything. He can play three positions on the floor, he
shoots the lights out with deep range and he has a great basketball IQ. He
also leads the SEC in assists. He's not a great athlete and needs to bulk up, but
he's already got the rest of the package. Another year leading Florida could
put him in the lottery. This year he'd likely be a late first-rounder.
_Patrick Patterson_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19151) , PF, Kentucky
He's already a load in the middle. Patterson has an NBA body and athleticism
and uses it to pound the defense into submission. He lacks ideal size at the 4
and is still very raw in the post, but he has the physical tools to be a very
good prospect down the road. Another year and he could be a lottery pick.
This year he'd probably be a late first-rounder.
_Kyle Singler_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19134) , F, Duke
Singler is a sweet-shooting forward who excels at just about every aspect of
the game. He's a great shooter, sure, but he does a little of everything for
Duke. He needs to add strength and improve his explosiveness, but he's another
great prospect down the road who's already having a big impact for the Blue
Devils.
_James Harden_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19221) , G, Arizona State
Harden, on paper, shouldn't be on this list. He's not a great athlete, nor is
he particularly gifted as a ball handler or defender. But the guy can flat
out score and has a killer jumper. He finds ways to score despite lacking great
quickness. He has a number of moves to create space for himself. While he's
not quite the marksman that Morris Almond was at Rice, there are some solid
comparisons there. He's probably the guy on this list who would struggle to find
his way into the first round this year, but down the road, he could be a
first-round pick.
Others to watch: _James Anderson_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19226) , G, Oklahoma State; _DeJuan
Blair_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19230) , F, Pittsburgh; _Gani Lawal_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19171) , F, Georgia Tech;
_Johnny Flynn_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19160) , PG, Syracuse; _Corey Fisher_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19154) , G,
Villanova; _Austin Freeman_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19150) , G/F, Georgetown; _Manny Harris_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19229) ,
G, Michigan; _Evan Turner_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19201) , F, Ohio State
_Chad Ford_ (http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/writeback?name=Chad+Ford)
covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
**************Start the year off right. Easy ways to stay in shape.
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